Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Bio-ORACLE v2.0: Extending marine data layers for bioclimatic modelling
TL;DR: In this article, a significant update of Bio-ORACLE for new future climate scenarios, present-day conditions and benthic layers (near sea bottom) is presented, where the reliability of data layers is assessed using a cross-validation framework against in situ quality-controlled data.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
Matthew Gidden,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Shinichiro Fujimori,Shinichiro Fujimori,Gunnar Luderer,Elmar Kriegler,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Maarten van den Berg,Leyang Feng,David Klein,Katherine Calvin,Jonathan C. Doelman,Stefan Frank,Oliver Fricko,Mathijs Harmsen,Tomoko Hasegawa,Petr Havlik,Jérôme Hilaire,Rachel Hoesly,Jill Horing,Alexander Popp,Elke Stehfest,Kiyoshi Takahashi +23 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sensitivities of extant animal taxa to ocean acidification
TL;DR: Analysis of the sensitivities of five animal groups to a wide range of CO2 concentrations finds a variety of responses within and between taxa, indicating that acidification will drive substantial changes in ocean ecosystems this century.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble
TL;DR: The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Leiwen Jiang,Brian C. O'Neill +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a new, long-term, global set of urbanization projections at country level that cover a plausible range of uncertainty, which can be extended to further elaborate assumptions about the styles of urban growth and spatial distributions of urban people and land cover occurring in each SSP.
References
More filters
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Book
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Book
Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Book Chapter
The Physical Science Basis
E. Jansen,J Overpeck,Keith R. Briffa,J. C. Duplessy,F. Joos,Masson-Delmotte,Daniel Olago,B. Otto-Bliesner,W. R. Peltier,Stefan Rahmstorf,Rengaswamy Ramesh,D Raynud,D Rind,O Solomina,Ricardo Villalba,De Zhang +15 more
Book
The Limits to Growth
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate five major trends of global concern: accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment.
Related Papers (5)
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Jae Edmonds,Mikiko Kainuma,Keywan Riahi,Allison M. Thomson,Kathy Hibbard,George C. Hurtt,George C. Hurtt,Tom Kram,Volker Krey,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Toshihiko Masui,Malte Meinshausen,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Steven J. Smith,Steven K. Rose +17 more
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more