Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change
Lila Warszawski,Andrew D. Friend,Sebastian Ostberg,Katja Frieler,Wolfgang Lucht,Sibyll Schaphoff,David J. Beerling,Patricia Cadule,Philippe Ciais,Douglas B. Clark,Ron Kahana,Akihiko Ito,Rozenn Keribin,Axel Kleidon,Mark R. Lomas,Kazuya Nishina,Ryan Pavlick,Tim T. Rademacher,Matthias Buechner,Franziska Piontek,Jacob Schewe,Olivia Serdeczny,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber +22 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming, based on simulations from seven global vegetation models driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties.
Journal ArticleDOI
Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh
Paul Whitehead,Sananda Sarkar,Li Jin,Martyn N. Futter,John Caesar,Emily Barbour,Dan Butterfield,Rajiv Sinha,Robert J. Nicholls,Craig W. Hutton,H. Leckie +10 more
TL;DR: Water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan and decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impacts of ocean acidification on early life-history stages and settlement of the coral-eating sea star Acanthaster planci.
Sven Uthicke,Danilo Pecorino,Rebecca Albright,Andrew P. Negri,Neal E. Cantin,M. Liddy,Symon A. Dworjanyn,Pamela Z. Kamya,Maria Byrne,Miles D. Lamare +9 more
TL;DR: Results indicate that reductions in fertilisation and settlement success alone would reduce COTS population replenishment by over 50%, but it is unlikely that this effect is sufficient to provide respite for corals from other negative anthropogenic impacts and direct stress from OA and warming on corals.
Spatial Modeling of Agricultural Land-Use Change at Global Scale
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework.
Tomoko Hasegawa,Shinichiro Fujimori,Yonghee Shin,Kiyoshi Takahashi,Toshihiko Masui,Akemi Tanaka +5 more
TL;DR: The adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Book
Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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The Physical Science Basis
E. Jansen,J Overpeck,Keith R. Briffa,J. C. Duplessy,F. Joos,Masson-Delmotte,Daniel Olago,B. Otto-Bliesner,W. R. Peltier,Stefan Rahmstorf,Rengaswamy Ramesh,D Raynud,D Rind,O Solomina,Ricardo Villalba,De Zhang +15 more
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The Limits to Growth
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate five major trends of global concern: accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment.
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