Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase
James S. Risbey,Stephan Lewandowsky,Stephan Lewandowsky,Clothilde Langlais,Didier Monselesan,Terence J. O’Kane,Naomi Oreskes +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors select models that are largely in phase with the natural variability, in this case the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, of the climate system and predict the recent Pacific Ocean temperature and spatial trends.
Journal ArticleDOI
Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change.
TL;DR: A mechanistic phenological model for the invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses, is developed and applied to project shifts under climate change scenarios to predict potential shifts in vector-borne disease risk in the coming decades.
Journal ArticleDOI
Century to multi‐century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the long-term projections of global-ocean thermal expansion and the dynamic sea level (DSL) change with 34 new CMIP5 models and under three greenhouse-gas emission scenarios.
Journal ArticleDOI
Contrasts between Urban and Rural Climate in CCSM4 CMIP5 Climate Change Scenarios
TL;DR: In this paper, a new parameterization of urban areas in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) allows for simulation of temperature in cities where most of the global population lives.
Journal ArticleDOI
Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes
Luke J. Harrington,David J. Frame,David J. Frame,Erich M. Fischer,Ed Hawkins,Manoj Joshi,Chris D. Jones +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models were used to demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
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Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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The Physical Science Basis
E. Jansen,J Overpeck,Keith R. Briffa,J. C. Duplessy,F. Joos,Masson-Delmotte,Daniel Olago,B. Otto-Bliesner,W. R. Peltier,Stefan Rahmstorf,Rengaswamy Ramesh,D Raynud,D Rind,O Solomina,Ricardo Villalba,De Zhang +15 more
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