Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
HTAP_v2.2: a mosaic of regional and global emission grid maps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution
Greet Janssens-Maenhout,Monica Crippa,Diego Guizzardi,Frank Dentener,Marilena Muntean,George Pouliot,Terry Keating,Qiang Zhang,J. Kurokawa,Robert Wankmüller,H.A.C. Denier van der Gon,Jeroen Kuenen,Zbigniew Klimont,Gregory J. Frost,S. Darras,Brigitte Koffi,Meng Li +16 more
TL;DR: In this paper, an emissions data set has been constructed using regional emission grid maps (annual and monthly) for SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC for the years 2008 and 2010, with the purpose of providing consistent information to global and regional scale modelling efforts.
Journal ArticleDOI
Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods
Gerald A. Meehl,Julie M. Arblaster,Julie M. Arblaster,John T. Fasullo,Aixue Hu,Kevin E. Trenberth +5 more
TL;DR: In some decades, such as 2000-2009, the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series has shown a flat or slightly negative trend as discussed by the authors, which may be linked to La Nina-like conditions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability
Peter M. Cox,David Pearson,Ben B. B. Booth,Pierre Friedlingstein,Chris Huntingford,Chris D. Jones,Catherine M. Luke +6 more
TL;DR: It is estimated that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin, which indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO2-induced climate change if CO2 fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models.
Journal ArticleDOI
Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
Christel Prudhomme,Ignazio Giuntoli,Emma L. Robinson,Douglas B. Clark,Nigel W. Arnell,Rutger Dankers,Balázs M. Fekete,Wietse Franssen,Dieter Gerten,Simon N. Gosling,Stefan Hagemann,David M. Hannah,Hyungjun Kim,Yoshimitsu Masaki,Yusuke Satoh,Tobias Stacke,Yoshihide Wada,Dominik Wisser,Dominik Wisser +18 more
TL;DR: This study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought.
Journal ArticleDOI
The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue
Jane P. Messina,Oliver J. Brady,Nick Golding,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,William Wint,Sarah E Ray,David M. Pigott,Freya M Shearer,Kimberly B. Johnson,Lucas Earl,Laurie B. Marczak,Shreya Shirude,Nicole Davis Weaver,Marius Gilbert,Raman Velayudhan,Peter A. Jones,Thomas Jaenisch,Thomas W. Scott,Robert Reiner,Simon I. Hay +21 more
TL;DR: This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability and provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
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Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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The Physical Science Basis
E. Jansen,J Overpeck,Keith R. Briffa,J. C. Duplessy,F. Joos,Masson-Delmotte,Daniel Olago,B. Otto-Bliesner,W. R. Peltier,Stefan Rahmstorf,Rengaswamy Ramesh,D Raynud,D Rind,O Solomina,Ricardo Villalba,De Zhang +15 more
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The Limits to Growth
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate five major trends of global concern: accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment.
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