Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A new scenario framework for climate change research : background, process, and future directions
Kristie L. Ebi,Stephane Hallegatte,Tom Kram,Nigel W. Arnell,Timothy R. Carter,Jae Edmonds,Elmar Kriegler,Ritu Mathur,Brian C. O'Neill,Keywan Riahi,Harald Winkler,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timm Zwickel +13 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this special issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O'Neill et al, 2013; Kriegler et al. 2013).
Journal ArticleDOI
Long-Term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison
Kirsten Zickfeld,Michael Eby,Andrew J. Weaver,K. Alexander,Elisabeth Crespin,Neil R. Edwards,Alexey V. Eliseev,Georg Feulner,Thierry Fichefet,Chris E. Forest,Pierre Friedlingstein,Hugues Goosse,Philip B. Holden,Fortunat Joos,Michio Kawamiya,David W. Kicklighter,Hendrik Kienert,Katsumi Matsumoto,Igor I. Mokhov,Erwan Monier,Steffen M. Olsen,Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen,Mahé Perrette,G. Philippon-Berthier,Andy Ridgwell,Adam Schlosser,Thomas Schneider von Deimling,Gary Shaffer,Gary Shaffer,Andrei P. Sokolov,Renato Spahni,Marco Steinacher,Kaoru Tachiiri,Kathy S. Tokos,Masakazu Yoshimori,Ning Zeng,Fang Zhao +36 more
TL;DR: In this paper, an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is presented.
Overview of IGAC/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Community Simulations in Support of Upcoming Ozone and Climate Assessments
Veronika Eyring,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Peter Hess,Florian Xavier Arfeuille,Kevin W. Bowman,Martyn P. Chipperfiel,Bryan N. Duncan,Arlene M. Fiore,Andrew Gettelman,Marco Giorgetta,Claire Granier,Michaela I. Hegglin,Doug Kinnison,Markus Kunze,Ulrike Langematz,Beiping Luo,Randall V. Martin,Katja Matthes,Paul A. Newman,Thomas Peter,Alan Robock,T. B. Ryerson,Alfonso Saiz-Lopez,Ross J. Salawitch,Martin G. Schultz,Theodore G. Shepherd,Drew Shindell,Johannes Staehelin,Susann Tegtmeier,Larry W. Thomason,Simone Tilmes,Jean-Paul Vernier,Darryn W. Waugh,Paul Young +33 more
TL;DR: The CCMI has now been approved by both the IGAC and SPARC scientific steering committees at their respective steering committee meetings as discussed by the authors, superseding the SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity, expanding the goals and deliverables of CCMVal to include tropospheric chemistry-climate questions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data
TL;DR: In the U.S. Southwest, the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%, and the analysis hereinsuggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas.
Journal ArticleDOI
Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems
Stephanie A. Henson,Claudie Beaulieu,Tatiana Ilyina,Jasmin G. John,Matthew C. Long,Roland Séférian,Jerry Tjiputra,Jorge L. Sarmiento +7 more
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%.
References
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