Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Less reliable water availability in the 21st century climate projections
TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess the reliability of available water in the 21st century climate projections by 20 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).
Journal ArticleDOI
Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment.
Aristeidis Koutroulis,Lamprini Papadimitriou,Manolis Grillakis,Ioannis K. Tsanis,Klaus Wyser,Richard Betts +5 more
TL;DR: A spatially detailed pan-European map of vulnerability to freshwater shortage has been developed at the local administrative level, making this approach extremely useful for supporting regional level policymaking and implementation and strategic planning against future freshwater stress.
Journal ArticleDOI
Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.
Akiko Hirata,Katsunori Nakamura,Katsuhiro Nakao,Yuji Kominami,Nobuyuki Tanaka,Haruka Ohashi,Kohei Takenaka Takano,Wataru Takeuchi,Tetsuya Matsui +8 more
TL;DR: The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between themean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD, and the findings were integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains
Vassilis Daioglou,Vassilis Daioglou,Jonathan C. Doelman,Elke Stehfest,Christoph Müller,Birka Wicke,André Faaij,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a spatially explicit method for assessing the supply of advanced biofuels at different emission factors and presenting the results as emission curves is introduced. But the results are uncertain and depend on model assumptions (including time horizon, spatial resolution, technology assumptions and so on), emission curves improve our understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
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Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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The Physical Science Basis
E. Jansen,J Overpeck,Keith R. Briffa,J. C. Duplessy,F. Joos,Masson-Delmotte,Daniel Olago,B. Otto-Bliesner,W. R. Peltier,Stefan Rahmstorf,Rengaswamy Ramesh,D Raynud,D Rind,O Solomina,Ricardo Villalba,De Zhang +15 more
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