Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
TL;DR: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance the authors' knowledge of climate variability and climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Jae Edmonds,Mikiko Kainuma,Keywan Riahi,Allison M. Thomson,Kathy Hibbard,George C. Hurtt,George C. Hurtt,Tom Kram,Volker Krey,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Toshihiko Masui,Malte Meinshausen,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Steven J. Smith,Steven K. Rose +17 more
TL;DR: The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as discussed by the authors is a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment
Tami C. Bond,Sarah J. Doherty,David W. Fahey,Piers M. Forster,Terje Koren Berntsen,Benjamin DeAngelo,Mark Flanner,Steven J. Ghan,Bernd Kärcher,Dorothy Koch,Stefan Kinne,Yutaka Kondo,Patricia K. Quinn,Marcus C. Sarofim,Martin G. Schultz,Michael Schulz,Chandra Venkataraman,Hua Zhang,Shiqiu Zhang,Nicolas Bellouin,Sarath K. Guttikunda,Philip K. Hopke,Mark Z. Jacobson,Johannes W. Kaiser,Zbigniew Klimont,Ulrike Lohmann,Joshua P. Schwarz,Drew Shindell,Trude Storelvmo,Stephen G. Warren,Charles S. Zender +30 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided an assessment of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice.
Journal ArticleDOI
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Veronika Eyring,Sandrine Bony,Gerald A. Meehl,Catherine A. Senior,Bjorn Stevens,Ronald J. Stouffer,Karl E. Taylor +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21-CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.
Journal Article
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Stefano Schiavon,Roberto Zecchin +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
References
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Book
The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
TL;DR: The Smith & Hawken Story: The process of Scenario--Building Uncovering the Decision Information--hunting and Gathering Creating Scenario Building Blocks Anatomy of a New Driving Force: The Global Teenager Composing a Plot The World in 2005: Three Scenarios Rehearsing The Future Epilogue: To My Newborn Son Afterword: The Value of a Strategic Conversation Appendix: Steps to Developing Scenario.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios Appendices and conclude that the IS92 emissions scenarios are not suitable for use in the WGIII report.
Journal ArticleDOI
Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue, and analyze the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Journal ArticleDOI
The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
TL;DR: Martelli et al. as discussed by the authors traced the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted.
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