Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Cumulative human impacts on marine predators
Sara M. Maxwell,Elliott L. Hazen,Elliott L. Hazen,Elliott L. Hazen,Steven J. Bograd,Benjamin S. Halpern,Benjamin S. Halpern,Greg A. Breed,Barry A. Nickel,Nicole M. Teutschel,Larry B. Crowder,Scott R. Benson,Peter H. Dutton,Helen Bailey,Michelle A. Kappes,Michelle A. Kappes,Carey E. Kuhn,Michael J. Weise,Bruce R. Mate,Scott A. Shaffer,Jason L. Hassrick,Robert W. Henry,Ladd M. Irvine,Birgitte I. McDonald,Patrick W. Robinson,Barbara A. Block,Daniel P. Costa +26 more
TL;DR: A metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators is developed by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
Chris T. Perry,Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip,Nicholas A. J. Graham,Peter J. Mumby,Shaun K. Wilson,Paul S. Kench,Derek P. Manzello,Kyle M. Morgan,Aimée B. A. Slangen,Damian P. Thomson,Fraser A. Januchowski-Hartley,Scott G. Smithers,Robert S. Steneck,Renée Carlton,Evan N. Edinger,Ian C. Enochs,Ian C. Enochs,Nuria Estrada-Saldívar,Michael D. E. Haywood,Graham Kolodziej,Graham Kolodziej,Gary N. Murphy,Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes,Adam Suchley,Lauren Valentino,Lauren Valentino,Robert Boenish,Margaret Wilson,Chancey MacDonald +28 more
TL;DR: The vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs is calculated and compared against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to show that few reefs will have the capacity to track sea-level rise projections under Representative concentration pathway scenarios without sustained ecological recovery.
Journal ArticleDOI
Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.
TL;DR: This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk, and shows that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy in data-scarce countries.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ocean solutions to address climate change and its effects on marine ecosystems
Jean-Pierre Gattuso,Jean-Pierre Gattuso,Jean-Pierre Gattuso,Alexandre K. Magnan,Alexandre K. Magnan,Laurent Bopp,Laurent Bopp,William W. L. Cheung,Carlos M. Duarte,Carlos M. Duarte,Jochen Hinkel,Elizabeth Mcleod,Fiorenza Micheli,Andreas Oschlies,Phillip Williamson,Phillip Williamson,Raphaël Billé,Vasiliki I. Chalastani,Vasiliki I. Chalastani,Ruth D. Gates,Jean-Olivier Irisson,Jack J. Middelburg,Hans-Otto Pörtner,Greg H. Rau +23 more
TL;DR: In this article, a comprehensive and systematic assessment of 13 global and local-scale, ocean-based measures was performed to help steer the development and implementation of technologies and actions towards a sustainable outcome.
Journal ArticleDOI
Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice
François Massonnet,Thierry Fichefet,Hugues Goosse,Cecilia M. Bitz,G. Philippon-Berthier,Marika M. Holland,Pierre-Yves Barriat +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the recent (1979-2010) and future (2011-2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5).
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
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Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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The Physical Science Basis
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate five major trends of global concern: accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment.
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