Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
The aridity Index under global warming
Peter Greve,Michael L. Roderick,Michael L. Roderick,Anna M. Ukkola,Anna M. Ukkola,Yoshihide Wada +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the Aridity index provides a poor proxy for projected aridity conditions and that the most commonly used potential evaporation model likely leads to an overestimation of future aridity due to incorrect assumptions under increasing atmospheric CO2.
Journal ArticleDOI
Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets.
TL;DR: This work shows that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set and explores a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global water, the anthropocene and the transformation of a science
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review key concepts that emerged over the last one-to-two decades that have motivated acceptance of the legitimacy of a fully global-scale perspective on hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles.
Journal ArticleDOI
Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones intensified by El Niño delivery of subsurface ocean heat
TL;DR: It is shown that El Niño—the warm phase of an ENSO cycle—effectively discharges heat into the eastern North Pacific basin two to three seasons after its wintertime peak, leading to intensified TCs.
Journal ArticleDOI
Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization
TL;DR: It is suggested that non-CO2 emissions contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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The Physical Science Basis
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