Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Modeling global water use for the 21st century : The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches
Yoshihide Wada,Yoshihide Wada,Yoshihide Wada,Martina Flörke,Naota Hanasaki,Stephanie Eisner,Guenther Fischer,Sylvia Tramberend,Yusuke Satoh,M.T.H. van Vliet,M.T.H. van Vliet,Paul T. Yillia,Claudia Ringler,Peter Burek,D. Wiberg +14 more
TL;DR: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative as mentioned in this paper assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner and provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful.
Journal ArticleDOI
The tropical forest carbon cycle and climate change
TL;DR: Tropical forests currently make a neutral contribution to the global carbon cycle, but they are likely to become a carbon source in the near future.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models
Gordon B. Bonan,Scott C. Doney +1 more
TL;DR: Environmental changes that are stressing terrestrial and marine ecosystems are described and how these stressors are being included in ESMs are discussed, initially with an emphasis on climate processes, but also show their emerging utility for VIA analyses and examine them in the context of Earth system prediction.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluating sustainability transitions pathways: Bridging analytical approaches to address governance challenges
Bruno Turnheim,Frans Berkhout,Frank W. Geels,Andries F. Hof,Andries F. Hof,Andrew McMeekin,Björn Nykvist,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren +8 more
TL;DR: An integration strategy based on alignment, bridging, and iteration is suggested, arguing that a structured dialogue between practitioners of different approaches is needed to address questions and dilemmas faced by decision-makers and practitioners.
Journal ArticleDOI
Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability
TL;DR: Experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model reveal that robust projected changes in precipitation anomalies during El’Niño years are primarily determined by a nonlinear response to surface global warming.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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The Physical Science Basis
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate five major trends of global concern: accelerating industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and a deteriorating environment.
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