Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TLDR
A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.Abstract:
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Plausibility and probability in scenario planning
Rafael Ramírez,Cynthia Selin +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore extant distinctions between plausibility and probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of methodological choice possibilities.
Journal ArticleDOI
Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snowfall
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used simulations performed with 18 coupled atmosphere-ocean global climatemodels from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and analyzed the Northern Hemisphere snowfall under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) scenario for the period 2006 to 2100.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations
Juan Pablo Boisier,Juan Pablo Boisier,Philippe Ciais,Agnès Ducharne,Matthieu Guimberteau,Matthieu Guimberteau +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors predict a longer dry season over a larger area and a strengthening of the monsoon season this century in the Amazon region, by constraining global climate models with simple models calibrated to observations.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Response of the North American Monsoon to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing
TL;DR: This article analyzed the response of the North American Monsoon (NAM) to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing (emissions scenario RCP 85) using new simulations available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5).
Journal ArticleDOI
Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming
T. Schneider von Deimling,Malte Meinshausen,Malte Meinshausen,Anders Levermann,Anders Levermann,Veronika Huber,Katja Frieler,David M. Lawrence,Victor Brovkin +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows them to perform a large ensemble of simulations to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed carbon.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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The Physical Science Basis
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