University of East Anglia

About: University of East Anglia is a education organization based out in Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Climate change. The organization has 13250 authors who have published 37504 publications receiving 1669060 citations. The organization is also known as: UEA.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955–2006

Abstract: [1] Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

Density compensation in neotropical primate communities: evidence from 56 hunted and nonhunted Amazonian forests of varying productivity

Abstract: Density compensation is a community-level phenomenon in which increases in the abundance of some species may offset the population decline, extirpation, or absence of other potentially interacting competitors. In this paper we examine the evidence for density compensation in neotropical primate assemblages using data from 56 hunted and nonhunted, but otherwise undisturbed, forest sites of Amazonia and the Guianan shields from which population density estimates are available for all diurnal primate species. We found good evidence of density compensation of the residual assemblage of nonhunted mid-sized species where the large-bodied (ateline) species had been severely reduced in numbers or driven to local extinction by subsistence hunters. Only weak evidence for density compensation, however, was detected in small-bodied species. These conclusions are based on the effects of ordinal measures of hunting pressure on the aggregate primate biomass across different size classes after controlling for the effects of forest type and productivity. These results are interpreted primarily in relation to patterns of niche partitioning between different primate functional groups or ecospecies. This study suggests that while overhunting drastically reduces the average body size in multi-species assemblages of forest vertebrates, depletion of large-bodied species is only partially offset (i.e. undercompensated) by smaller taxa.

Defaunation affects carbon storage in tropical forests

Abstract: Carbon storage is widely acknowledged as one of the most valuable forest ecosystem services. Deforestation, logging, fragmentation, fire, and climate change have significant effects on tropical carbon stocks; however, an elusive and yet undetected decrease in carbon storage may be due to defaunation of large seed dispersers. Many large tropical trees with sizeable contributions to carbon stock rely on large vertebrates for seed dispersal and regeneration, however many of these frugivores are threatened by hunting, illegal trade, and habitat loss. We used a large data set on tree species composition and abundance, seed, fruit, and carbon-related traits, and plant-animal interactions to estimate the loss of carbon storage capacity of tropical forests in defaunated scenarios. By simulating the local extinction of trees that depend on large frugivores in 31 Atlantic Forest communities, we found that defaunation has the potential to significantly erode carbon storage even when only a small proportion of large-seeded trees are extirpated. Although intergovernmental policies to reduce carbon emissions and reforestation programs have been mostly focused on deforestation, our results demonstrate that defaunation, and the loss of key ecological interactions, also poses a serious risk for the maintenance of tropical forest carbon storage.

An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends

Abstract: An updated analysis of observed stratospheric temperature variability and trends is presented on the basis of satellite, radiosonde, and lidar observations. Satellite data include measurements from the series of NOAA operational instruments, including the Microwave Sounding Unit covering 1979–2007 and the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) covering 1979–2005. Radiosonde results are compared for six different data sets, incorporating a variety of homogeneity adjustments to account for changes in instrumentation and observational practices. Temperature changes in the lower stratosphere show cooling of ∼0.5 K/decade over much of the globe for 1979–2007, with some differences in detail among the different radiosonde and satellite data sets. Substantially larger cooling trends are observed in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during spring and summer, in association with development of the Antarctic ozone hole. Trends in the lower stratosphere derived from radiosonde data are also analyzed for a longer record (back to 1958); trends for the presatellite era (1958–1978) have a large range among the different homogenized data sets, implying large trend uncertainties. Trends in the middle and upper stratosphere have been derived from updated SSU data, taking into account changes in the SSU weighting functions due to observed atmospheric CO2 increases. The results show mean cooling of 0.5–1.5 K/decade during 1979–2005, with the greatest cooling in the upper stratosphere near 40–50 km. Temperature anomalies throughout the stratosphere were relatively constant during the decade 1995–2005. Long records of lidar temperature measurements at a few locations show reasonable agreement with SSU trends, although sampling uncertainties are large in the localized lidar measurements. Updated estimates of the solar cycle influence on stratospheric temperatures show a statistically significant signal in the tropics (∼30°N–S), with an amplitude (solar maximum minus solar minimum) of ∼0.5 K (lower stratosphere) to ∼1.0 K (upper stratosphere).

The road not taken: how psychology was removed from economics, and how it might be brought back*

Abstract: This article explores parallels between the debate prompted by Pareto’s reformulation of choice theory at the beginning of the twentieth century and current controversies about the status of behavioural economics. Before Pareto’s reformulation, neoclassical economics was based on theoretical and experimental psychology, as behavioural economics now is. Current discovered preference defences of rational-choice theory echo arguments made by Pareto. Both treat economics as a separate science of rational choice, independent of psychology. Both confront two fundamental problems: to find a defensible definition of the domain of economics, and to justify the assumption that preferences are consistent and stable. One of the most significant developments in economics over the last two decades has been the growth of behavioural economics, which draws on the theoretical and methodological approaches of psychology in explaining economic phenomena. Behavioural economists take pride in grounding their explanations on empirical hypotheses about how human beings really think and act, rather than on deductions from a priori assumptions about rational choice, and in subjecting those hypotheses to experimental test. Viewed in historical perspective, behavioural economists are trying to reverse a fundamental shift in economics which took place from the beginning of the twentieth century: the Paretian turn. This shift, initiated by Vilfredo Pareto and completed in the 1930s and 1940s by John Hicks, Roy Allen and Paul Samuelson, eliminated psychological concepts from economics by basing economic theory on principles of rational choice. From then to the 1980s, almost all the main lines of development in economic theory were aimed at