Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Combining Clinical and Epidemiologic Features for Early Recognition of SARS
TL;DR: Key epidemiologic risk factors include exposure to settings where SARS activity is suspected or documented, or in the absence of such exposure, Epidemiologic linkage to other persons with pneumonia, or 3) exposure to healthcare settings provide a possible strategic framework for early recognition of SARS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks
TL;DR: This work identifies epidemiological traits of self-limited infections that correlate with transmissibility and evaluates surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination.
Journal ArticleDOI
Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland.
TL;DR: This work uses a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of the Spanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918 to estimate the reproduction number from the early phase of the pandemic waves.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
Pandemic influenza response
TL;DR: A disease spread model is developed that assists in estimating the food need geographically at a given time and an integrated solution approach called the Dynamic Update Approach is developed to build the food distribution network.
Posted ContentDOI
The reproductive number R0 of COVID-19 Based on estimate of a statistical time delay dynamical system
Nian Shao,Jin Cheng,Wenbin Chen +2 more
TL;DR: The observed data reported in CCDC's paper is used to estimate distribution of the generation interval of the infection and the simulation results from the time delay dynamic system as well as released data from CCDC to fit the growth rate.
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