Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Review of Infective Dose, Routes of Transmission, and Outcome of COVID-19 Caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Virus: Comparison with Other Respiratory Viruses
TL;DR: There was some evidence that increased dose at exposure correlated with higher viral load clinically, and severer symptoms, and the minimum infective dose of COVID-19 in humans, is higher than 100 particles, possibly slightly lower than the 700 particles estimated for H1N1 influenza.
Journal ArticleDOI
Investigation of an imported case of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection in Florence, Italy, May to June 2013.
Simona Puzelli,Alberta Azzi,Maria Grazia Santini,A. Di Martino,Marzia Facchini,Maria R. Castrucci,Monica Meola,Rosaria Arvia,Fabiana Corcioli,Federica Pierucci,Simonetta Baretti,Alessandro Bartoloni,Dario Bartolozzi,M. De Martino,Luisa Galli,Maria Grazia Pompa,G. Rezza,E Balocchini,Isabella Donatelli +18 more
TL;DR: On 31 May 2013, the first case of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection in Italy was laboratory confirmed in a previously healthy adult man, who developed pneumonia with moderate respiratory distress after returning from a holiday in Jordan.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics
TL;DR: Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in Ro > 2.7 within 44 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19, and implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled Ro are briefly discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity.
Govind Prasad Sahu,Joydip Dhar +1 more
TL;DR: It is observed that the population level impact of quarantine and isolation depend on the level of transmission by the isolated individuals and the higher level of pre-existing immunity in the population decreases the infection peak and causes its early arrival.
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Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination
TL;DR: A mathematical model is developed and fit to case and death count data collected from the United States and eight European countries during the early epidemic period before broad control measures were implemented, and shows that individual-level heterogeneity in vaccine induced immunity can significantly affect vaccination schedules.
References
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