Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world
TL;DR: A probabilistic model is introduced that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and shows that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic.
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Middle East respiratory syndrome.
TL;DR: The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a lethal zoonotic pathogen that was first identified in humans in Saudi Arabia and Jordan in 2012.
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Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.
TL;DR: The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period, indicating that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset and that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.
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Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures.
Marino Gatto,Enrico Bertuzzo,Lorenzo Mari,Stefano Miccoli,Luca Carraro,Renato Casagrandi,Andrea Rinaldo +6 more
TL;DR: Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, it is concluded that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.
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Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics.
Eskild Petersen,Eskild Petersen,Marion Koopmans,Unyeong Go,Davidson H. Hamer,Nicola Petrosillo,Francesco Castelli,Merete Storgaard,Sulien Al Khalili,Lone Simonsen,Lone Simonsen +10 more
TL;DR: Compared with other epidemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 causes mild or asymptomatic disease in most cases; however, severe to critical illness occurs in a small proportion of infected individuals, with the highest rate seen in people older than 70 years.
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