Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Hospitalized patients with bacterial infections: a potential focus of SARS transmission during an outbreak.
TL;DR: Close proximity of persons enhances the risk of transmission, and this together with handling of human secretions have made the hospital setting particularly vulnerable to the rapid spread of SARS.
Journal ArticleDOI
On a model of spatial spread of epidemics with long-distance travel
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the dynamics of infectious diseases which are spread geographically through long-distance travel between two regions and subsequent local redistribution through a process of diffusion, and examined uniform and nonuniform steady states together with their linear stability.
Journal ArticleDOI
The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China.
Jianpeng Xiao,Jianxiong Hu,Guanhao He,Tao Liu,Min Kang,Zuhua Rong,Lifeng Lin,Haojie Zhong,Qiong Huang,Aiping Deng,Weilin Zeng,Xiaohua Tan,Siqing Zeng,Zhihua Zhu,Jiansen Li,Dexin Gong,Donghua Wan,Shaowei Chen,Lingchuan Guo,Yihan Li,Yan Li,Limei Sun,Wenjia Liang,Tie Song,Jianfeng He,Wenjun Ma +25 more
TL;DR: COVID-19 has much higher transmissibility than SARS, however, a series of prevention and control interventions to suppress the outbreak were effective and sustained efforts are needed to prevent the rebound of the epidemic in the context of the global pandemic.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sub-national variation in measles vaccine coverage and outbreak risk: A case study from a 2010 outbreak in Malawi
Avery Kundrick,Zhuojie Huang,Spencer Carran,Matthew Kagoli,Rebecca F. Grais,Northan Hurtado,Matthew J. Ferrari +6 more
TL;DR: Three metrics for prioritization for vaccination coverage, susceptible birth cohort, and the effective reproductive ratio are analyzed in the context of the 2010 measles epidemic in Malawi to identify spatial regions that would be of high priority for supplemental vaccination activities.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of visitors and hospital staff on nosocomial transmission and spread to community.
TL;DR: A deterministic meta-population model is developed to qualitatively capture some key features of disease transmission between a community and its healthcare facility, showing that waiting time only affects the peak number of infections in the waiting reception area and transmission rate of infective residents in the community and the infective visitors at the healthcare facility have decisive impact on disease eradication/persistence of the coupled system.
References
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