Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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"No test is better than a bad test": Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of Covid-19
Nicholas Gray,Dominic Calleja,Alexander Wimbush,Enrique Miralles-Dolz,Ander Gray,Marco De-Angelis,Elfriede Derrer-Merk,Bright Uchenna Oparaji,Vladimir Stepanov,Louis G Clearkin,Scott Ferson +10 more
TL;DR: A well designed active viral testing strategy combined with incremental relaxation of the lock-down measures is shown to be a potential strategy to restore some social activity whilst continuing to keep infections low in the Covid-19 epidemic.
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SARS epidemical forecast research in mathematical model
TL;DR: The SIJR model is adopted to analyze the important parameters of the model of SARS epidemic such as the transmission rate, basic reproductive number and as a by-product, the index of the effectiveness of control in the later period can be acquired.
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Early Real-time Estimation of Infectious Disease Reproduction Number
Bahman Davoudi,Babak Pourbohloul,Joel C. Miller,Rafael Meza,Lauren Ancel Meyers,David J. D. Earn +5 more
TL;DR: A novel method is presented that enables to make a reliable real-time estimate of the reproduction number at a much earlier stage compared to other available methods, and takes into account the possibility that a disease has a wide distribution of infectious period and that the degree distribution of the contact network is heterogeneous.
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Review of Epidemic, Containment Strategies, Clinical Management, and Economic Evaluation of COVID-19 Pandemic
Chi-Ling Chen,Chao Chih Lai,Chao Chih Lai,Dih Ling Luh,Shao Yuan Chuang,Kuen-Cheh Yang,Yen Po Yeh,Amy Ming Fang Yen,King-Jen Chang,Ray-E Chang,Sam Li Sheng Chen +10 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a systematic framework for elucidating emerging infectious disease (EID) such as COVID-19 with a panorama viewpoint from natural infection and disease process, public health interventions (non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine), clinical treatments and therapies (antivirals), until global aspects of health and economic loss, and economic evaluation of interventions with emphasis on mass vaccination.
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Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality
TL;DR: The most ideal and NPI's for conceivable decrease of R* through CFR for the interest of all nations are proposed and countries/regions can play it safe dependent on R* to diminish the spread of COVID-19.
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