Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and control, different scenarios for Turkey
Eskild Petersen,Deniz Gökengin +1 more
TL;DR: Turkey is early in the outbreak of COVID-19 with different control strategies available with South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore being models to follow.
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Explicit non-Markovian susceptible-infected-susceptible mean-field epidemic threshold for Weibull and Gamma infections but Poisson curings.
P. Van Mieghem,Qiang Liu +1 more
TL;DR: Analytical expressions of the epidemic threshold in a Weibull and a Gamma SIS epidemic on any network, where the infection time is WeIBull and Gamma, but the recovery time is exponential, are presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Asynchronicity of endemic and emerging mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in the Dominican Republic
Mary E. Petrone,Rebecca Earnest,José Lourenço,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Robert Paulino-Ramirez,Nathan D. Grubaugh,Leandro Tapia +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed temporal and spatial patterns of chikungunya, Zika, and dengue outbreaks reported in the Dominican Republic between 2012 and 2018 and found that emerging disease outbreaks were robust to the climatological and spatio-temporal constraints defining seasonal dengUE outbreak dynamics, indicating that constant surveillance is required to prevent future health crises.
Journal ArticleDOI
COVID-19 order parameters and order parameter time constants of italy and China: A modeling approach based on synergetics
TL;DR: From a dynamical systems perspective, COVID-19 infectious disease emerges via an instability in human populations as discussed by the authors, and the human population free of infected individuals is an unstored human population.
Journal ArticleDOI
What we have learnt from the SARS epdemics in mainland China
Wuchun Cao,Liqun Fang,Dan Xiao +2 more
TL;DR: The SARS epidemic provided valuable experience and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system.
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