Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Real-time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: Inference using exported cases
Sung-mok Jung,Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Katsuma Hayashi,Natalie M. Linton,Yichi Yang,Baoyin Yuan,Tetsuro Kobayashi,Ryo Kinoshita,Hiroshi Nishiura +8 more
TL;DR: It is argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic and the proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.
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Networks and the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease
Leon Danon,Ashley P. Ford,Thomas House,Chris P. Jewell,Matthew James Keeling,Gareth O. Roberts,Joshua V. Ross,Matthew C. Vernon +7 more
TL;DR: A personalised overview into the areas of network epidemiology that have seen the greatest progress in recent years or have the greatest potential to provide novel insights is provided, focusing on the interplay between network theory and epidemiology.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks
Abba B. Gumel,Shigui Ruan,Troy Day,James Watmough,Fred Brauer,P. van den Driessche,Dave Gabrielson,Christopher N. Bowman,Murray E. Alexander,Sten Ardal,Jianhong Wu,Beni M. Sahai +11 more
TL;DR: The results reveal that achieving a reduction in the contact rate between susceptible and diseased individuals by isolating the latter is a critically important strategy that can control SARS outbreaks with or without quarantine.
Journal ArticleDOI
Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data
TL;DR: It is concluded that the reproduction number for pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) at the city level can be robustly assessed to lie in the range of 2.0–3.0, in broad agreement with previous estimates using distinct data.
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Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada.
TL;DR: Dynamic physical distancing could maintain health-system capacity and also allow periodic psychological and economic respite for populations and could reduce the median number of cases in ICU below current estimates of Ontario’s ICU capacity.
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