Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period
TL;DR: It is projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after an initial pandemic wave and the full range of plausible transmission scenarios are summarized.
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COVID-19: Epidemiology, Evolution, and Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives.
Jiumeng Sun,Wan Ting He,Lifang Wang,Alexander Lai,Xiang Ji,Xiaofeng Zhai,Gairu Li,Marc A. Suchard,Jin Tian,Jiyong Zhou,Michael Veit,Shuo Su +11 more
TL;DR: It is proposed, based on the One Health model, that veterinarians and animal specialists should be involved in a cross-disciplinary collaboration in the fight against this epidemic, and suggest a low species barrier for transmission of the virus to farm animals.
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Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis.
TL;DR: Evidence from the four‐phase stringent measures showed that it was significant to ensure early detection, early isolation, early treatment, adequate medical supplies, patients’ being admitted to designated hospitals, and comprehensive therapeutic strategy to combat the novel coronavirus.
Journal ArticleDOI
SARS — beginning to understand a new virus
Konrad Stadler,Vega Masignani,Markus Eickmann,Stephan Becker,Sergio Abrignani,Hans-Dieter Klenk,Rino Rappuoli +6 more
TL;DR: The genomics of the Sars coronavirus (SARS-CoV), its phylogeny, antigenic structure, immune response and potential therapeutic interventions should the SARS epidemic flare up again are reviewed.
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The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases
TL;DR: It is shown that an increase in R0, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.
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