Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
More filters
Posted ContentDOI
Simulating SARS-CoV-2 epidemics by region-specific variables and modeling contact tracing App containment
Alberto Ferrari,Enrico Santus,Davide Cirillo,Miguel Ponce-de-Leon,Nicola Marino,Maria Teresa Ferretti,Antonella Santuccione Chadha,Nikolaos Mavridis,Alfonso Valencia +8 more
TL;DR: An expanded SIR model of COVID-19 epidemics that accounts for region-specific population densities is built and the results show that app-mediated contact-tracing can improve containment and achieve successful epidemic mitigation even with relatively small fraction of the population using it, and, with increasing penetrance of its adoption, suppression.
Journal ArticleDOI
Constructing Ebola transmission chains from West Africa and estimating model parameters using internet sources.
TL;DR: A transmission chain involving two Ebola clusters in West Africa is created that compared favorably with other published transmission chains, and derived parameters for a mathematical model of Ebola disease transmission that were not statistically different from those derived from published sources.
Posted ContentDOI
Analyses and Forecast for COVID-19 epidemic in India
TL;DR: The study has analysed and predicted the dynamics of the temporal progression of the disease in Indian and the selected eight states and compared India's position in containing the disease with two countries with higher and lower number of infections than India.
Journal ArticleDOI
Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015.
Ruiyun Li,Yuqi Bai,Alex Heaney,Sasikiran Kandula,Jun Cai,Xuyi Zhao,Bing Xu,Bing Xu,Jeffrey Shaman +8 more
TL;DR: A mathematical model–Bayesian inference system is developed which combines a simple epidemic model and data assimilation method with data on observed human influenza A(H7N9) cases from 19 February 2013 to 19 September 2015 to estimate key epidemiological parameters and to forecast infection in both poultry and humans.
Journal ArticleDOI
A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa
Christina J. Edholm,Benjamin Levy,Lee Spence,Folashade B. Agusto,Faraimunashe Chirove,C. W. Chukwu,David Goldsman,Moatlhodi Kgosimore,Innocent Maposa,K. A. Jane White,Suzanne Lenhart +10 more
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors investigated the impact of government mandates on movement restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions on a novel infection, and investigated these strategies in early-stage outbreak dynamics.
References
More filters
Book
Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control
Roy M. Anderson,Robert M. May +1 more
TL;DR: This book discusses the biology of host-microparasite associations, dynamics of acquired immunity heterogeneity within the human community indirectly transmitted helminths, and the ecology and genetics of hosts and parasites.
Journal ArticleDOI
Identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Christian Drosten,Stephan Günther,Wolfgang Preiser,Sylvie van der Werf,H. R. Brodt,Stephan Becker,Holger F. Rabenau,Marcus Panning,Larissa Kolesnikova,Ron A. M. Fouchier,Annemarie Berger,Ana-Maria Burguière,Jindrich Cinatl,Markus Eickmann,Nicolas Escriou,Klaus Grywna,Stefanie Kramme,Jean-Claude Manuguerra,Stefanie Müller,Volker Rickerts,Martin Stürmer,Simon Vieth,Hans-Dieter Klenk,Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus,Herbert Schmitz,Hans Wilhelm Doerr +25 more
TL;DR: The novel coronavirus might have a role in causing SARS and was detected in a variety of clinical specimens from patients with SARS but not in controls.
Journal ArticleDOI
A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Thomas G. Ksiazek,Dean D. Erdman,Cynthia S. Goldsmith,Zaki,Teresa C. T. Peret,Shannon L. Emery,Suxiang Tong,Urbani C,James A. Comer,Wilina Lim,Pierre E. Rollin,Scott F. Dowell,Ai Ee Ling,Charles D. Humphrey,Wun-Ju Shieh,Jeannette Guarner,Christopher D. Paddock,Paul A. Rota,Barry S. Fields,Joseph L. DeRisi,Jyh-Yuan Yang,Nancy J. Cox,James M. Hughes,James W. LeDuc,William J. Bellini,Larry J. Anderson +25 more
TL;DR: A novel coronavirus is associated with this outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, and the evidence indicates that this virus has an etiologic role in SARS.
Book
A first course in stochastic processes
Samuel Karlin,Howard M. Taylor +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the Basic Limit Theorem of Markov Chains and its applications are discussed and examples of continuous time Markov chains are presented. But they do not cover the application of continuous-time Markov chain in matrix analysis.
Journal ArticleDOI
Seasonal variation in host susceptibility and cycles of certain infectious diseases.
TL;DR: Ample evidence indicates that photoperiod-driven physiologic changes are typical in mammalian species, including some in humans, and underlie human resistance to infectious diseases for large portions of the year and the changes can be identified and modified, the therapeutic and preventive implications may be considerable.
Related Papers (5)
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.
Qun Li,Xuhua Guan,Peng Wu,Xiaoye Wang,Lei Zhou,Yeqing Tong,Ruiqi Ren,Kathy Leung,Eric H. Y. Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Xuesen Xing,Nijuan Xiang,Yang Wu,Chao Li,Chen Qi,Dan Li,Tian Liu,Jing Zhao,Man Liu,Wenxiao Tu,Chuding Chen,Lianmei Jin,Rui Yang,Qi Wang,Suhua Zhou,Rui Wang,Hui Liu,Yingbo Luo,Yuan Liu,Ge Shao,Huan Li,Zhongfa Tao,Yang Yang,Yang Yang,Zhiqiang Deng,Boxi Liu,Zhitao Ma,Yanping Zhang,Guoqing Shi,Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam,Joseph T. Wu,George F. Gao,George F. Gao,Benjamin J. Cowling,Bo Yang,Gabriel M. Leung,Zijian Feng +46 more
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.
Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China
Chaolin Huang,Yeming Wang,Xingwang Li,Lili Ren,Jianping Zhao,Yi Hu,Li Zhang,Guohui Fan,Jiuyang Xu,Xiaoying Gu,Zhenshun Cheng,Ting Yu,Jia'an Xia,Yuan Wei,Wenjuan Wu,Xuelei Xie,Wen Yin,Li Hui,Min Liu,Yan Xiao,Hong Gao,Li Guo,Jungang Xie,Guang-Fa Wang,Rongmeng Jiang,Zhancheng Gao,Qi Jin,Jianwei Wang,Bin Cao +28 more