Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Moving Average Based Index for Judging the Peak of the COVID-19 Epidemic.
TL;DR: A seven-day moving average of log-transformed daily new cases (LMA) is used to establish a new index named the “epidemic evaluation index” (EEI) and showed that the global COVID-19 epidemic peaked on 9 February and 5 February 2020, in Hubei Province and other provinces in China.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
Halting Infectious Disease Spread in Social Network
Zhen-peng Li,Guo-liang Shao +1 more
TL;DR: An approach to understand the disease spreading in large transportation network or virus transmission in the Internet and some useful measures to control and eradicate epidemic or virus within the large scale complex network with hierarchical meta-population structure are presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Surveillance Metrics of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Central Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.
Lori A. Post,Elana T Benishay,Charles B. Moss,Robert L. Murphy,Chad J. Achenbach,Michael G. Ison,Danielle Resnick,Lauren Nadya Singh,Janine White,Azraa S Chaudhury,Michael J Boctor,Sarah B Welch,James F. Oehmke +12 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully.
Journal ArticleDOI
A differential equations model-fitting analysis of COVID-19 epidemiological data to explain multi-wave dynamics.
TL;DR: In this paper, a compartmental model fitting analysis of the portuguese case, using an online open-access platform with the integrated capability of solving systems of differential equations, is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread.
Silvio L.T. de Souza,Antonio M. Batista,Antonio M. Batista,Iberê L. Caldas,Kelly C. Iarosz,Kelly C. Iarosz,Kelly C. Iarosz,José D. Szezech +7 more
TL;DR: An overview of the possible scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic in the phase of easing restrictions used to reopen the economy and society is provided and it is shown how undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions.
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