Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Posted ContentDOI
The impact of changes in diagnostic testing practices on estimates of COVID-19 transmission in the United States.
Virginia E. Pitzer,Melanie H. Chitwood,Joshua Havumaki,Nicolas A Menzies,Stephanie Perniciaro,Joshua L. Warren,Daniel M. Weinberger,Ted Cohen +7 more
TL;DR: It is found that changes in testing practices and delays in reporting can result in biased estimates of R0 and Rt, and changes in diagnostic testing and reporting processes should be monitored and taken into consideration when interpreting estimates of the reproductive number of COVID-19.
Journal ArticleDOI
Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air travel.
TL;DR: A multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework is developed and it is found that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy.
Book ChapterDOI
Sensitivity of Model-Based Epidemiological Parameter Estimation to Model Assumptions
TL;DR: It is argued that if the authors lack detailed knowledge of the biology of the transmission process, parameter estimation should be accompanied by a structural sensitivity analysis, in addition to the standard statistical uncertainty analysis.
Journal ArticleDOI
The urban geography of SARS: paradoxes and dilemmas in Toronto's health care.
TL;DR: It is argued that containment alone, while a necessary and urgent priority, cannot be seen as an end in itself and might better be understood as one possible trajectory within a comprehensive problem-solving strategy.
Journal ArticleDOI
Separate roles of the latent and infectious periods in shaping the relation between the basic reproduction number and the intrinsic growth rate of infectious disease outbreaks.
TL;DR: It is shown that whereas the distribution of the generation time can be derived by the latent and infectious period distributions, the Distribution of the transmission interval is also determined by the intensity of infectious contacts as a counting process and hence by R(0).
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