Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Modelling control measures to reduce the impact of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren.
Shyr-Chyr Chen,Chien-An Liao +1 more
TL;DR: The integrated approach, employing the mechanism of transmission of indoor respiratory infection, population-dynamic transmission model, and the impact of infectious control programmes, is a powerful tool for risk profiling prediction of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren.
Journal ArticleDOI
The unique features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: Comparison with SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus
TL;DR: Covid‐19 exhibits high viral shedding in the upper respiratory tract at an early stage of infection, and has a high proportion of transmission competent individuals that are pre‐symptomatic, asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, characteristics seen in H1N1pdm09 but not in SARS or MERS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Infectious Diseases as Socio-Spatial Processes: The COVID-19 Outbreak In Germany.
Andreas Kuebart,Martin Stabler +1 more
TL;DR: By identifying key processes of disease diffusion in space, the TPSN framework can explain the spatial patterns of the COVID‐19 outbreak in Germany, which did not feature the well‐known patterns of spatially contagious as in or hierarchical diffusion.
Journal ArticleDOI
Forecasting Epidemics Through Nonparametric Estimation of Time-Dependent Transmission Rates Using the SEIR Model.
TL;DR: This work introduces a novel approach for the reconstruction of nonparametric time-dependent transmission rates by projecting onto a finite subspace spanned by Legendre polynomials and compares three regularization algorithms: variational (Tikhonov’s) regularization, truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD), and modified TSVD to determine the stabilizing strategy that is most effective in terms of reliability of forecasting from limited data.
Journal ArticleDOI
Smallpox and bioterrorism
TL;DR: The dangers of mass vaccination are emphasized, along with the importance of case isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts for outbreak control, which supports the conclusion of a previous reviewer that "smallpox cannot be said to live up to its reputation".
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