Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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The effects of border control and quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19.
M. Pear Hossain,Alvin Junus,Xiaolin Zhu,Pengfei Jia,Tzai-Hung Wen,Dirk U. Pfeiffer,Hsiang-Yu Yuan +6 more
TL;DR: An “easy-to-use” mathematical framework extending from a meta-population model embedding city- to-city connections is developed to stratify the dynamics of transmission waves caused by imported, secondary, and others from an outbreak source region when control measures are considered.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bayesian inference of transmission chains using timing of symptoms, pathogen genomes and contact data.
TL;DR: A probabilistic model that relates a set of contact data to an underlying transmission tree and integrated this in the outbreaker2 inference framework is developed and can be incorporated into existing tools for outbreak reconstruction and should permit a better integration of genomic and epidemiological data for inferring transmission chains.
Journal ArticleDOI
Time variations in the generation time of an infectious disease: implications for sampling to appropriately quantify transmission potential.
TL;DR: The present study defines the period and cohort generation times, both of which are time-inhomogeneous, as a function of the infection time of secondary and primary cases, respectively, and shows that the period generation time increases with calendar time, whereas the cohort generation time decreases as the incidence increases.
Journal ArticleDOI
Low risk of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome on airplanes: the Singapore experience.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined data from flights to Singapore with SARS patients on board in order to assess the risk of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) on airplanes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Spatial dynamics of an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in an urban area
Jinfeng Wang,Anthony J. McMichael,Bin Meng,Niels G. Becker,Weiguo Han,Kathryn Glass,Jilei Wu,Xuhua Liu,Jiyuan Liu,Xiaowen Li,Xiaoying Zheng +10 more
TL;DR: Traditional control measures can be very effective at reducing transmission of SARS and spatial patterns of risk-exposures can inform disease surveillance, prediction and control by identifying spatial target areas on which interventions should be focused.
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