Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore
TL;DR: ARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS, and could well be used in plans for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well.
Journal ArticleDOI
Inference of R0 and Transmission Heterogeneity from the Size Distribution of Stuttering Chains
TL;DR: This work demonstrates how maximum likelihood estimation can be applied to chain size data to infer both the degree of heterogeneity in transmission from stuttering chain data and the dispersion parameter that characterizes heterogeneity.
Journal ArticleDOI
Asymptomatic SARS coronavirus infection among healthcare workers, Singapore
Annelies Wilder-Smith,Annelies Wilder-Smith,Annelies Wilder-Smith,Monica D. Teleman,B H Heng,Arul Earnest,Ai E. Ling,Yee S. Leo +7 more
TL;DR: Asymptomatic SARS was associated with lower SARS antibody titers and higher use of masks when compared to pneumonic SARS.
Journal ArticleDOI
Curtailing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome within a community and its hospital
TL;DR: It is shown that if hospital–based transmission is not halted, measures that reduce community–HCW contact are vital to preventing a widespread epidemic, particularly in high–transmission settings.
Journal ArticleDOI
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS): A Year in Review
Danuta M. Skowronski,Caroline R. Astell,Robert C. Brunham,Donald E. Low,Martin Petric,Rachel L. Roper,Pierre J. Talbot,Theresa Tam,Lorne A. Babiuk +8 more
TL;DR: Through real-time application of accumulating knowledge, the world proved capable of arresting the first pandemic threat of the twenty-first century, despite early respiratory-borne spread and global susceptibility.
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