Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases: the SARS case study
Vittoria Colizza,Alain Barrat,Alain Barrat,Marc Barthelemy,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a general stochastic meta-population model that incorporates actual travel and census data among 3 100 urban areas in 220 countries to predict the likelihood of country outbreaks and their magnitude.
Journal ArticleDOI
Early Real-Time Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Emerging Infectious Diseases
B. Davoudi,Joel C. Miller,Rafael Meza,Lauren Ancel Meyers,David J. D. Earn,Babak Pourbohloul,Babak Pourbohloul +6 more
TL;DR: A key parameter that governs the crucial early phase of epidemics can be reliably estimated with methods from network theory and stochastic processes as mentioned in this paper, which can be used to predict the distribution of epidemic outbreaks.
Posted ContentDOI
Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China
TL;DR: The Chinese COVID-19 epidemic can be completely controlled in May,2020 and can be probably avoided the pandemic of global SARS-CoV-2 cases rise with the great efforts by Chinese government and its people.
Journal ArticleDOI
Beyond Contact Tracing: Community-Based Early Detection for Ebola Response.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider the development of multi-scale public health strategies that act on individual and community levels, and simulate policies for community-level response aimed at early screening all members of a community, as well as travel restrictions to prevent inter-community transmission.
Posted ContentDOI
Estimating the risk on outbreak spreading of 2019-nCoV in China using transportation data
Hsiang-Yu Yuan,Hossain Mp,Mesfin Mengesha Tsegaye,Xiaolin Zhu,Pengfei Jia,Alvin Junus,Tzai-Hung Wen,Dirk U. Pfeiffer +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a mathematical framework incorporating city-to-city connections to calculate the number of imported cases of the novel corona virus from an outbreak source, and the cumulative number of secondary cases generated by the imported cases.
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