Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Dynamically modeling SARS and other newly emerging respiratory illnesses: past, present, and future.
TL;DR: This work reconcile discrepancies between published estimates of the basic reproductive number R0 for SARS (a crucial epidemiologic parameter), discusses insights regarding SARS control measures that have emerged uniquely from a modeling approach, and argues that high priorities for future modeling should include informing quarantine policy and better understanding the impact of population heterogeneity on transmission patterns.
Journal ArticleDOI
Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
TL;DR: Wu et al. as discussed by the authors estimated the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention.
Journal ArticleDOI
Cluster of SARS among medical students exposed to single patient, Hong Kong.
Tze Wai Wong,Chin Kei Lee,Wilson W.S. Tam,Joseph Lau,Tak Sun Ignatius Yu,Siu-Fai Lui,Paul K.S. Chan,Yuguo Li,Joseph S. Bresee,Joseph J.Y. Sung,Umesh D. Parashar +10 more
TL;DR: Proximity to the index case-patient was associated with transmission, which is consistent with droplet spread, and transmission through fomites or small aerosols cannot be ruled out.
Journal ArticleDOI
Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza
Ashleigh R. Tuite,Amy L. Greer,Michael Whelan,Anne-Luise Winter,Brenda Lee,Ping Yan,Jianhong Wu,Seyed M. Moghadas,David L. Buckeridge,Babak Pourbohloul,David N. Fisman +10 more
TL;DR: The low estimates of epidemiologic parameters for pandemic H1N1 influenza using data from initial reports of laboratory-confirmed cases indicate that effective mitigation strategies may reduce the final epidemic impact of pandemic influenza.
Journal ArticleDOI
A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks.
TL;DR: In this paper, a 2-parameter generalized growth model was proposed to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak and capture epidemic profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth.
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