Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A one-year effective reproduction number of the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreaks in the widespread West African countries and quantitative evaluation of air travel restriction measure.
TL;DR: The results suggest that restriction of air travels is effective in reducing the risk of EVD importation but controlling of the virus at the original affected countries is vitally more important for preventing inter-terrestrial dissemination ofEVD.
Social Distancing, Quarantine, Contact Tracing, and Testing : Implications of an Augmented SEIR Model*, Working Paper 20-04
TL;DR: The authors modifies the basic SEIR model to incorporate demand for health care and study the relative effectiveness of policy interventions that include social distancing, quarantine, contact tracing, and random testing.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
Microblog Topic Contagiousness Measurement and Emerging Outbreak Monitoring
TL;DR: A time-series form of susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model is extended to monitor microblog emerging outbreaks by considering both endogenous and exogenous drivers and adopting partially labeled Dirichlet allocation (PLDA) model to generate both background latent topics and hashtag topics.
Journal ArticleDOI
SEIR order parameters and eigenvectors of the three stages of completed COVID-19 epidemics: with an illustration for Thailand January to May 2020.
Till D. Frank,S Chiangga +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a unifying perspective of the beginnings, middle stages, and endings of such completed COVID-19 epidemics is developed based on the order parameter and eigenvalue concepts of nonlinear physics, in general, and synergetics, in particular.
Posted ContentDOI
Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong
TL;DR: A susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-recovered (SEIQR) meta-population model is developed that can stratify the infections into imported and subsequent local infections, and suggests that the early quarantine for a suspected case before the symptom onset is a key factor to suppress COVID-19.
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