Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study.
Qifang Bi,Yongsheng Wu,Shujiang Mei,Chenfei Ye,Xuan Zou,Zhen Zhang,Xiaojian Liu,Lan Wei,Shaun A. Truelove,Tong Zhang,Wei Gao,Cong Cheng,Xiujuan Tang,Xiaoliang Wu,Yu Wu,Binbin Sun,Suli Huang,Yu Sun,Juncen Zhang,Ting Ma,Justin Lessler,Tiejian Feng +21 more
TL;DR: An analysis of data from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 1286 close contacts shows that isolation and contact tracing reduce the time during which cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing the R.
Journal ArticleDOI
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.
Shi Zhao,Qianying Lin,Jinjun Ran,Salihu S. Musa,Guangpu Yang,Weiming Wang,Yijun Lou,Daozhou Gao,Lin Yang,Daihai He,Maggie Haitian Wang +10 more
TL;DR: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth and indicates the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks, as well as the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, modelled through theonential growth.
Journal ArticleDOI
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
TL;DR: It is shown that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
Journal ArticleDOI
A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics
TL;DR: This tool produces novel, statistically robust analytical estimates of R that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of the serial interval and should help epidemiologists quantify temporal changes in the transmission intensity of future epidemics by using surveillance data.
Journal ArticleDOI
How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers.
Jacco Wallinga,Marc Lipsitch +1 more
TL;DR: It is shown that by taking the generation interval distribution equal to the observed distribution, it is possible to obtain an empirical estimate of the reproductive number and obtain an upper bound to the range of possible values that the reproductiveNumber may attain for a given growth rate.
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