Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Marc Lipsitch,Ted Cohen,Ben S. Cooper,James M. Robins,Stefan Ma,Lyn James,Gowri Gopalakrishna,Suok Kai Chew,Chorh Chuan Tan,Matthew H. Samore,David N. Fisman,Megan Murray +11 more
TLDR
It is estimated that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures, and public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.Abstract:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.read more
Citations
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Severe acute respiratory syndrome: review and lessons of the 2003 outbreak
TL;DR: The response led within 2 weeks to the identification of the aetiological agent, SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV),8–11 and to a series of decisive and effective containment efforts that interrupted the last chain of human transmission in less than 4 months.
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Implications of COVID-19 in high burden countries for HIV/TB: A systematic review of evidence
Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi,Birhanu Teshome Ayele,Constance Shumba,Olatunji O. Adetokunboh,Olatunji O. Adetokunboh,Jeannine Uwimana-Nicol,Zelalem T. Haile,Joseph Inugu,Peter Nyasulu,Peter Nyasulu +9 more
TL;DR: TB was a risk factor for COVID-19 both in terms of severity and mortality irrespective of HIV status and Structured diagnostic algorithms and clinical management are suggested to improve CO VID-19/HIV/TB or COVID/19/TB co-infections outcomes.
Richards Model: A Simple Procedure for Real-time Prediction of Outbreak Severity
TL;DR: Richards model, a logistic-type ordinary differential equation, is proposed to be used to fit the daily cumulative case data from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreaks in Taiwan, Beijing, Hong Kong, Toronto, and Singapore to provide insights into ongoing outbreaks.
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Environment Determines Fidelity for an RNA Virus Replicase
TL;DR: It is found that the CMV replicase had different fidelity in different environments, with important implications in viral disease evolution.
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Recommendations for modeling disaster responses in public health and medicine: a position paper of the society for medical decision making.
TL;DR: Quantitative models are critical tools for planning effective health sector responses to disasters, and the proposed recommendations can increase the applicability and interpretability of future models, thereby improving strategic, tactical, and operational aspects of preparedness planning and response.
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