Paris West University Nanterre La Défense

About: Paris West University Nanterre La Défense is a education organization based out in Paris, France. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Computer science & Politics. The organization has 895 authors who have published 1430 publications receiving 21712 citations.

Fearless versus Fearful Speculative Financial Bubbles

Abstract: Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies nine time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The model predicts the existence of two anomalous behaviors occurring simultaneously: (i) super-exponential price growth and (ii) volatility growth, that we refer to as the “fearful singular bubble” regime. Out of the nine time series, we find that five pass our tests and can be characterized as “fearful singular bubbles”. The four other cases are the information technology Nasdaq bubble and three bubbles of the Hang Seng index ending in crashes in 1987, 1994 and 1997. According to our analysis, these four bubbles have developed with essentially no significant increase of their volatility. This paper thus proposes that speculative bubbles ending in crashes form two groups hitherto unrecognized, namely those accompanied by increasing volatility (reflecting increasing risk perception) and those without change of volatility (reflecting an absence of risk perception).

The discrimination of discrete and continuous amounts in African grey parrots (Psittacus erithacus).

Abstract: A wealth of research in infants and animals demonstrates discrimination of quantities, in some cases nonverbal numerical perception, and even elementary calculation capacities. We investigated the ability of three African grey parrots (Psittacus erithacus) to select the largest amount of food between two sets, either discrete food items (experiment 1) or as volume of a food substance (experiment 2). The two amounts were presented simultaneously and were visible at the time of choice. Parrots were tested several times for all possible combinations between 1 and 5 seeds or 0.2 and 1 ml of food substance. In both conditions, subjects performed above chance for almost all combinations. Accuracy was negatively correlated with the ratio, that is performance improved with greater differences between amounts. Therefore, these results with both individual items and volume discrimination suggest that parrots use an analogue of magnitude, rather than object-file mechanisms to quantify items and substances.

Large deviation estimates for a conditional probability distribution. Applications to random interaction Gibbs measures

Abstract: Let (X i ,Y i ) ∈ℤ d , be independent identically distributed random variables with arbitrary distribution. We show that, for almost every(Y i ) i , the conditional law of the empirical field given(Y i ) i satisfies to large deviation inequalities. This applies to the study of Gibbs measures with random interaction, in the case of some mean-field models as well as of short range summable interaction. We show that the pressure is nonrandom, and is given by a variational formula. These random Gibbs measures have the same large deviation rate, which does not depend on the particular realization of the interaction; their local behaviour is described in terms of conditional probabilities given the interaction of solutions to the variational formula.