Paris West University Nanterre La Défense

About: Paris West University Nanterre La Défense is a education organization based out in Paris, France. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Computer science & Politics. The organization has 895 authors who have published 1430 publications receiving 21712 citations.

A Mechanism for Pockets of Predictability in Complex Adaptive Systems

Abstract: We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability (``prediction days''), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history. We demonstrate and test it out-of-sample on synthetic minority and majority games as well as on real financial time series. The surprising large frequency of these prediction days implies a collective organization of agents and of their strategies which condense into transitional herding regimes.

Effects of Pomegranate Juice Supplementation on Oxidative Stress Biomarkers Following Weightlifting Exercise

Abstract: The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that pomegranate juice supplementation would blunt acute and delayed oxidative stress responses after a weightlifting training session. Nine elite weightlifters (21.0 ± 1 years) performed two Olympic-Weightlifting sessions after ingesting either the placebo or pomegranate juice supplements. Venous blood samples were collected at rest and 3 min and 48 h after each session. Compared to the placebo condition, pomegranate juice supplementation attenuated the increase in malondialdehyde (−12.5%; p < 0.01) and enhanced the enzymatic (+8.6% for catalase and +6.8% for glutathione peroxidase; p < 0.05) and non-enzymatic (+12.6% for uric acid and +5.7% for total bilirubin; p < 0.01) antioxidant responses shortly (3 min) after completion of the training session. Additionally, during the 48 h recovery period, pomegranate juice supplementation accelerated (p < 0.05) the recovery kinetics of the malondialdehyde (5.6%) and the enzymatic antioxidant defenses compared to the placebo condition (9 to 10%). In conclusion, supplementation with pomegranate juice has the potential to attenuate oxidative stress by enhancing antioxidant responses assessed acutely and up to 48 h following an intensive weightlifting training session. Therefore, elite weightlifters might benefit from blunted oxidative stress responses following intensive weightlifting sessions, which could have implications for recovery between training sessions.

Maximum likelihood estimation of long-term HIV dynamic models and antiviral response.

Abstract: HIV dynamics studies, based on differential equations, have significantly improved the knowledge on HIV infection. While first studies used simplified short-term dynamic models, recent works considered more complex long-term models combined with a global analysis of whole patient data based on nonlinear mixed models, increasing the accuracy of the HIV dynamic analysis. However statistical issues remain, given the complexity of the problem. We proposed to use the SAEM (stochastic approximation expectation-maximization) algorithm, a powerful maximum likelihood estimation algorithm, to analyze simultaneously the HIV viral load decrease and the CD4 increase in patients using a long-term HIV dynamic system. We applied the proposed methodology to the prospective COPHAR2-ANRS 111 trial. Very satisfactory results were obtained with a model with latent CD4 cells defined with five differential equations. One parameter was fixed, the 10 remaining parameters (eight with between-patient variability) of this model were well estimated. We showed that the efficacy of nelfinavir was reduced compared to indinavir and lopinavir.

Bonus-malus scales in segmented tariffs with stochastic migration between segments

Abstract: This article proposes a computer-intensive methodology to build bonus-malus scales in automobile insurance. The claim frequency model is taken from Pinquet, Guillen, and Bolance (2001). It accounts for overdispersion, heteroskedasticity, and dependence among repeated observations. Explanatory variables are taken into account in the determination of the relativities, yielding an integrated automobile ratemaking scheme. In that respect, it complements the study of Taylor (1997).

A mechanism for pockets of predictability in complex adaptive systems

Abstract: We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability ("prediction days"), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history. We demonstrate and test it out of sample on synthetic minority and majority games as well as on real financial time series. The surprising large frequency of these prediction days implies a collective organization of agents and of their strategies which condense into transitional herding regimes.