Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking
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In this article, a high-resolution ice core record was used to identify the most pronounced changes observed, beside the glacial terminations, are the Dansgaard-Oeschger events, which strongly suggest that they are noise induced and thus have very limited predictability.Abstract:
[1] The causes for and possible predictions of rapid climate changes are poorly understood. The most pronounced changes observed, beside the glacial terminations, are the Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Present day general circulation climate models simulating glacial conditions are not capable of reproducing these rapid shifts. It is thus not known if they are due to bifurcations in the structural stability of the climate or if they are induced by stochastic fluctuations. By analyzing a high resolution ice core record we exclude the bifurcation scenario, which strongly suggests that they are noise induced and thus have very limited predictability.read more
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH)–a community perspective
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Journal ArticleDOI
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