Showing papers by "Universities Space Research Association published in 2013"

Nrlmsise-00 Empirical Model of the Atmosphere: Statistical Comparisons and Scientific Issues

Abstract: The new NRLMSISE-00 model and the associated NRLMSIS database now include the following data: (1) total mass density from satellite accelerometers and from orbit determination, including the Jacchia and Barlier data; (2) temperature from incoherent scatter radar, and; (3) molecular oxygen number density, [O2], from solar ultraviolet occultation aboard the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). A new component, 'anomalous oxygen,' allows for appreciable O(+) and hot atomic oxygen contributions to the total mass density at high altitudes and applies primarily to drag estimation above 500 km. Extensive tables compare our entire database to the NRLMSISE-00, MSISE-90, and Jacchia-70 models for different altitude bands and levels of geomagnetic activity. We also investigate scientific issues related to the new data sets in the NRLMSIS database. Especially noteworthy is the solar activity dependence of the Jacchia data, with which we investigate a large O(+) contribution to the total mass density under the combination of summer, low solar activity, high latitudes, and high altitudes. Under these conditions, except at very low solar activity, the Jacchia data and the Jacchia-70 model indeed show a significantly higher total mass density than does MSISE-90. However, under the corresponding winter conditions, the MSIS-class models represent a noticeable improvement relative to Jacchia-70 over a wide range of F(sub 10.7). Considering the two regimes together, NRLMSISE-00 achieves an improvement over both MSISE-90 and Jacchia-70 by incorporating advantages of each.

The Collection 6 MODIS aerosol products over land and ocean

Abstract: . The twin Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors have been flying on Terra since 2000 and Aqua since 2002, creating an extensive data set of global Earth observations. Here, we introduce the Collection 6 (C6) algorithm to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol size parameters from MODIS-observed spectral reflectance. While not a major overhaul from the previous Collection 5 (C5) version, there are enough changes that there are significant impacts to the products and their interpretation. The C6 aerosol data set will be created from three separate retrieval algorithms that operate over different surface types. These are the two "Dark Target" (DT) algorithms for retrieving (1) over ocean (dark in visible and longer wavelengths) and (2) over vegetated/dark-soiled land (dark in the visible), plus the "Deep Blue" (DB) algorithm developed originally for retrieving (3) over desert/arid land (bright in the visible). Here, we focus on DT-ocean and DT-land (#1 and #2). We have updated assumptions for central wavelengths, Rayleigh optical depths and gas (H2O, O3, CO2, etc.) absorption corrections, while relaxing the solar zenith angle limit (up to ≤ 84°) to increase poleward coverage. For DT-land, we have updated the cloud mask to allow heavy smoke retrievals, fine-tuned the assignments for aerosol type as function of season/location, corrected bugs in the Quality Assurance (QA) logic, and added diagnostic parameters such topographic altitude. For DT-ocean, improvements include a revised cloud mask for thin-cirrus detection, inclusion of wind speed dependence on the surface reflectance, updates to logic of QA Confidence flag (QAC) assignment, and additions of important diagnostic information. At the same time, we quantified how "upstream" changes to instrument calibration, land/sea masking and cloud masking will also impact the statistics of global AOD, and affect Terra and Aqua differently. For Aqua, all changes will result in reduced global AOD (by 0.02) over ocean and increased AOD (by 0.02) over land, along with changes in spatial coverage. We compared preliminary data to surface-based sun photometer data, and show that C6 should improve upon C5. C6 will include a merged DT/DB product over semi-arid land surfaces for reduced-gap coverage and better visualization, and new information about clouds in the aerosol field. Responding to the needs of the air quality community, in addition to the standard 10 km product, C6 will include a global (DT-land and DT-ocean) aerosol product at 3 km resolution.

Enhanced Deep Blue Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm: The Second Generation

Abstract: The aerosol products retrieved using the MODIS collection 5.1 Deep Blue algorithm have provided useful information about aerosol properties over bright-reflecting land surfaces, such as desert, semi-arid, and urban regions. However, many components of the C5.1 retrieval algorithm needed to be improved; for example, the use of a static surface database to estimate surface reflectances. This is particularly important over regions of mixed vegetated and non- vegetated surfaces, which may undergo strong seasonal changes in land cover. In order to address this issue, we develop a hybrid approach, which takes advantage of the combination of pre-calculated surface reflectance database and normalized difference vegetation index in determining the surface reflectance for aerosol retrievals. As a result, the spatial coverage of aerosol data generated by the enhanced Deep Blue algorithm has been extended from the arid and semi-arid regions to the entire land areas.

Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations

Abstract: We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02 Wm−2, with a mean of −0.27 Wm−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information from the other AeroCom models reduces the range and slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35 Wm−2. Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study. We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results.

The Swift-BAT Hard X-ray Transient Monitor

Abstract: The Swift/Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) hard X-ray transient monitor provides near real-time coverage of the X-ray sky in the energy range 15-50 keV. The BAT observes 88% of the sky each day with a detection sensitivity of 5.3 mCrab for a full-day observation and a time resolution as fine as 64 s. The three main purposes of the monitor are (1) the discovery of new transient X-ray sources, (2) the detection of outbursts or other changes in the flux of known X-ray sources, and (3) the generation of light curves of more than 900 sources spanning over eight years. The primary interface for the BAT transient monitor is a public Web site. Between 2005 February 12 and 2013 April 30, 245 sources have been detected in the monitor, 146 of them persistent and 99 detected only in outburst. Among these sources, 17 were previously unknown and were discovered in the transient monitor. In this paper, we discuss the methodology and the data processing and filtering for the BAT transient monitor and review its sensitivity and exposure. We provide a summary of the source detections and classify them according to the variability of their light curves. Finally, we review all new BAT monitor discoveries. For the new sources that are previously unpublished, we present basic data analysis and interpretations.

Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Abstract: . Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4% (−16%) for RCP2.6, 2% (−7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18%) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40–150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

Validation and uncertainty estimates for MODIS Collection 6 “Deep Blue” aerosol data

Abstract: The "Deep Blue" aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm was introduced in Collection 5 of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product suite, and complemented the existing "Dark Target" land and ocean algorithms by retrieving AOD over bright arid land surfaces, such as deserts. The forthcoming Collection 6 of MODIS products will include a "second generation" Deep Blue algorithm, expanding coverage to all cloud-free and snow-free land surfaces. The Deep Blue dataset will also provide an estimate of the absolute uncertainty on AOD at 550 nm for each retrieval. This study describes the validation of Deep Blue Collection 6 AOD at 550 nm (Tau(sub M)) from MODIS Aqua against Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data from 60 sites to quantify these uncertainties. The highest quality (denoted quality assurance flag value 3) data are shown to have an absolute uncertainty of approximately (0.086+0.56Tau(sub M))/AMF, where AMF is the geometric air mass factor. For a typical AMF of 2.8, this is approximately 0.03+0.20Tau(sub M), comparable in quality to other satellite AOD datasets. Regional variability of retrieval performance and comparisons against Collection 5 results are also discussed.

Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

Abstract: Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry?climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration?response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470?000 (95% confidence interval, 140?000 to 900?000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (?20?000 to 27?000) deaths yr?1 due to ozone and 2200 (?350?000 to 140?000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.

Sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niño/Southern Oscillation events

Abstract: The El Nino/Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean influences temperature in other tropical ocean basins. Reanalysis data and model simulations suggest that temperature anomalies in the north tropical Atlantic may also influence the development of La Nina events.

Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Observations and Model Simulations

Abstract: This paper reviews observations of stratospheric temperatures that have been made over a period of several decades. Those observed temperatures have been used to assess variations and trends in stratospheric temperatures. A wide range of observation datasets have been used, comprising measurements by radiosonde (1940s to the present), satellite (1979 - present), lidar (1979 - present) and rocketsonde (periods varying with location, but most terminating by about the mid-1990s). In addition, trends have also been assessed from meteorological analyses, based on radiosonde and/or satellite data, and products based on assimilating observations into a general circulation model. Radiosonde and satellite data indicate a cooling trend of the annual-mean lower stratosphere since about 1980. Over the period 1979-1994, the trend is 0.6K/decade. For the period prior to 1980, the radiosonde data exhibit a substantially weaker long-term cooling trend. In the northern hemisphere, the cooling trend is about 0.75K/decade in the lower stratosphere, with a reduction in the cooling in mid-stratosphere (near 35 km), and increased cooling in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 K per decade at 50 km). Model simulations indicate that the depletion of lower stratospheric ozone is the dominant factor in the observed lower stratospheric cooling. In the middle and upper stratosphere both the well-mixed greenhouse gases (such as CO) and ozone changes contribute in an important manner to the cooling.

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics

Abstract: . The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry.

Planck 2013 results. I. Overview of products and scientific results

Abstract: The ESA's Planck satellite, dedicated to studying the early Universe and its subsequent evolution, was launched 14 May 2009 and has been scanning the microwave and submillimetre sky continuously since 12 August 2009. This paper gives an overview of the mission and its performance, the processing, analysis, and characteristics of the data, the scientific results, and the science data products and papers in the release. The science products include maps of the CMB and diffuse extragalactic foregrounds, a catalogue of compact Galactic and extragalactic sources, and a list of sources detected through the SZ effect. The likelihood code used to assess cosmological models against the Planck data and a lensing likelihood are described. Scientific results include robust support for the standard six-parameter LCDM model of cosmology and improved measurements of its parameters, including a highly significant deviation from scale invariance of the primordial power spectrum. The Planck values for these parameters and others derived from them are significantly different from those previously determined. Several large-scale anomalies in the temperature distribution of the CMB, first detected by WMAP, are confirmed with higher confidence. Planck sets new limits on the number and mass of neutrinos, and has measured gravitational lensing of CMB anisotropies at greater than 25 sigma. Planck finds no evidence for non-Gaussianity in the CMB. Planck's results agree well with results from the measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations. Planck finds a lower Hubble constant than found in some more local measures. Some tension is also present between the amplitude of matter fluctuations derived from CMB data and that derived from SZ data. The Planck and WMAP power spectra are offset from each other by an average level of about 2% around the first acoustic peak.

Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Abstract: . Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m−2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

Limits on the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves

Abstract: We present an analysis of high-precision pulsar timing data taken as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We have observed 17 pulsars for a span of roughly five years using the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes. We analyze these data using standard pulsar timing models, with the addition of time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-variable pulse shape terms. Sub-microsecond timing residuals are obtained in nearly all cases, and the best rms timing residuals in this set are ~30-50 ns. We present methods for analyzing post-fit timing residuals for the presence of a gravitational wave signal with a specified spectral shape. These optimally take into account the timing fluctuation power removed by the model fit, and can be applied to either data from a single pulsar, or to a set of pulsars to detect a correlated signal. We apply these methods to our data set to set an upper limit on the strength of the nHz-frequency stochastic supermassive black hole gravitational wave background of h_c (1 yr^(–1)) < 7 × 10^(–15) (95%). This result is dominated by the timing of the two best pulsars in the set, PSRs J1713+0747 and J1909–3744.

The First FERMI-LAT Gamma-Ray Burst Catalog

Abstract: In three years of observations since the beginning of nominal science operations in August 2008, the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma Ray Space Telescope has observed high-energy (>20 MeV) \gamma-ray emission from 35 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Among these, 28 GRBs have been detected above 100 MeV and 7 GRBs above ~ 20 MeV. The first Fermi-LAT catalog of GRBs is a compilation of these detections and provides a systematic study of high-energy emission from GRBs for the first time. To generate the catalog, we examined 733 GRBs detected by the Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor (GBM) on Fermi and processed each of them using the same analysis sequence. Details of the methodology followed by the LAT collaboration for GRB analysis are provided. We summarize the temporal and spectral properties of the LAT-detected GRBs. We also discuss characteristics of LAT-detected emission such as its delayed onset and longer duration compared to emission detected by the GBM, its power-law temporal decay at late times, and the fact that it is dominated by a power-law spectral component that appears in addition to the usual Band model.

Planck intermediate results: V. Pressure profiles of galaxy clusters from the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect

Abstract: Taking advantage of the all-sky coverage and broad frequency range of the Planck satellite, we study the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) and pressure profiles of 62 nearby massive clusters detected at high significance in the 14-month nominal survey. Careful reconstruction of the SZ signal indicates that most clusters are individually detected at least out to R500. By stacking the radial profiles, we have statistically detected the radial SZ signal out to 3R500, i.e., at a density contrast of about 50-100, though the dispersion about the mean profile dominates the statistical errors across the whole radial range. Our measurement is fully consistent with previous Planck results on integrated SZ fluxes, further strengthening the agreement between SZ and X-ray measurements inside R500. Correcting for the effects of the Planck beam, we have calculated the corresponding pressure profiles. This new constraint from SZ measurements is consistent with the X-ray constraints from xmm in the region in which the profiles overlap (i.e., [0.1-1] R500), and is in fairly good agreement with theoretical predictions within the expected dispersion. At larger radii the average pressure profile is shallower than the predictions. Combining the SZ and X-ray observed profiles into a joint fit to a generalised pressure profile gives best-fit parameters [P0, c500, gamma, alpha, beta] = [6.41, 1.81, 0.31, 1.33, 4.13]. Using a reasonable hypothesis for the gas temperature in the cluster outskirts we reconstruct from our stacked pressure profile the gas mass fraction profile out to 3R500. Within the temperature driven uncertainties, our Planck constraints are compatible with the cosmic baryon fraction and expected gas fraction in halos.

Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and projected future changes

Abstract: . We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000–2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching > 1300 mg(N) m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~ 30–50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multi-model deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850–2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

A new stratospheric and tropospheric NO2 retrieval algorithm for nadir-viewing satellite instruments : applications to OMI

Abstract: . We describe a new algorithm for the retrieval of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) vertical columns from nadir-viewing satellite instruments. This algorithm (SP2) is the basis for the Version 2.1 OMI This algorithm (SP2) is the basis for the Version 2.1 Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 Standard Product and features a novel method for separating the stratospheric and tropospheric columns. NO2 Standard Product and features a novel method for separating the stratospheric and tropospheric columns. The approach estimates the stratospheric NO2 directly from satellite data without using stratospheric chemical transport models or assuming any global zonal wave pattern. Tropospheric NO2 columns are retrieved using air mass factors derived from high-resolution radiative transfer calculations and a monthly climatology of NO2 profile shapes. We also present details of how uncertainties in the retrieved columns are estimated. The sensitivity of the retrieval to assumptions made in the stratosphere–troposphere separation is discussed and shown to be small, in an absolute sense, for most regions. We compare daily and monthly mean global OMI NO2 retrievals using the SP2 algorithm with those of the original Version 1 Standard Product (SP1) and the Dutch DOMINO product. The SP2 retrievals yield significantly smaller summertime tropospheric columns than SP1, particularly in polluted regions, and are more consistent with validation studies. SP2 retrievals are also relatively free of modeling artifacts and negative tropospheric NO2 values. In a reanalysis of an INTEX-B validation study, we show that SP2 largely eliminates an ~20% discrepancy that existed between OMI and independent in situ springtime NO2 SP1 measurements.

Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty

Abstract: The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

How Safe Is Safe Enough? Radiation Risk for a Human Mission to Mars

Abstract: Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR)--made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate.

The HERSCHEL Inventory of The Agents of Galaxy Evolution in the Magellanic Clouds, a Herschel Open Time Key Program

Abstract: We present an overview of the HERschel Inventory of The Agents of Galaxy Evolution (HERITAGE) in the Magellanic Clouds project, which is a Herschel Space Observatory open time key program. We mapped the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) at 100, 160, 250, 350, and 500 μm with the Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) and Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) instruments on board Herschel using the SPIRE/PACS parallel mode. The overriding science goal of HERITAGE is to study the life cycle of matter as traced by dust in the LMC and SMC. The far-infrared and submillimeter emission is an effective tracer of the interstellar medium (ISM) dust, the most deeply embedded young stellar objects (YSOs), and the dust ejected by the most massive stars. We describe in detail the data processing, particularly for the PACS data, which required some custom steps because of the large angular extent of a single observational unit and overall the large amount of data to be processed as an ensemble. We report total global fluxes for the LMC and SMC and demonstrate their agreement with measurements by prior missions. The HERITAGE maps of the LMC and SMC are dominated by the ISM dust emission and bear most resemblance to the tracers of ISM gas rather than the stellar content of the galaxies. We describe the point source extraction processing and the criteria used to establish a catalog for each waveband for the HERITAGE program. The 250 μm band is the most sensitive and the source catalogs for this band have ~25,000 objects for the LMC and ~5500 objects for the SMC. These data enable studies of ISM dust properties, submillimeter excess dust emission, dust-to-gas ratio, Class 0 YSO candidates, dusty massive evolved stars, supernova remnants (including SN1987A), H II regions, and dust evolution in the LMC and SMC. All images and catalogs are delivered to the Herschel Science Center as part of the community support aspects of the project. These HERITAGE images and catalogs provide an excellent basis for future research and follow up with other facilities.

Scaling Relationship for NO2 Pollution and Urban Population Size: A Satellite Perspective

Abstract: Concern is growing about the effects of urbanization on air pollution and health. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) released primarily from combustion processes, such as traffic, is a short-lived atmospheric pollutant that serves as an air-quality indicator and is itself a health concern. We derive a global distribution of ground-level NO2 concentrations from tropospheric NO2 columns retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Local scaling factors from a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model (GEOS-Chem) are used to relate the OMI NO2 columns to ground-level concentrations. The OMI-derived surface NO2 data are significantly correlated (r = 0.69) with in situ surface measurements. We examine how the OMI-derived ground-level NO2 concentrations, OMI NO2 columns, and bottom-up NOx emission inventories relate to urban population. Emission hot spots, such as power plants, are excluded to focus on urban relationships. The correlation of surface NO2 with population is significant for the three countries and ...

Bisphosphonates as a supplement to exercise to protect bone during long-duration spaceflight

Abstract: We report the results of alendronate ingestion plus exercise in preventing the declines in bone mass and strength and elevated levels of urinary calcium and bone resorption in astronauts during 55 months of spaceflight This investigation was an international collaboration between NASA and the JAXA space agencies to investigate the potential value of antiresorptive agents to mitigate the well-established bone changes associated with long-duration spaceflight We report the results from seven International Space Station (ISS) astronauts who spent a mean of 55 months on the ISS and who took an oral dose of 70 mg of alendronate weekly starting 3 weeks before flight and continuing throughout the mission All crewmembers had available for exercise a treadmill, cycle ergometer, and a resistance exercise device Our assessment included densitometry of multiple bone regions using X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and quantitative computed tomography (QCT) and assays of biomarkers of bone metabolism In addition to pre- and post-flight measurements, we compared our results to 18 astronauts who flew ISS missions and who exercised using an early model resistance exercise device, called the interim resistance exercise device, and to 11 ISS astronauts who exercised using the newer advanced resistance exercise device (ARED) Our findings indicate that the ARED provided significant attenuation of bone loss compared with the older device although post-flight decreases in the femur neck and hip remained The combination of the ARED and bisphosphonate attenuated the expected decline in essentially all indices of altered bone physiology during spaceflight including: DXA-determined losses in bone mineral density of the spine, hip, and pelvis, QCT-determined compartmental losses in trabecular and cortical bone mass in the hip, calculated measures of fall and stance computed bone strength of the hip, elevated levels of bone resorption markers, and urinary excretion of calcium The combination of exercise plus an antiresoptive drug may be useful for protecting bone health during long-duration spaceflight

Satellite observations of desert dust‐induced Himalayan snow darkening

Abstract: The optically thick aerosol layer along the southern edge of the Himalaya has been subject of several recent investigations relating to its radiative impacts on the South Asian summer monsoon and regional climate forcing. Prior to the onset of summer monsoon, mineral dust from southwest Asian deserts is transported over the Himalayan foothills on an annual basis. Episodic dust plumes are also advected over the Himalaya, visible as dust-laden snow surface in satellite imagery, particularly in western Himalaya. We examined spectral surface reflectance retrieved from spaceborne MODIS observations that show characteristic reduction in the visible wavelengths (0.47 nm) over western Himalaya, associated with dust-induced solar absorption. Case studies as well as seasonal variations of reflectance indicate a significant gradient across the visible (0.47 nm) to near-infrared (0.86 nm) spectrum (VIS-NIR), during premonsoon period. Enhanced absorption at shorter visible wavelengths and the resulting VIS-NIR gradient is consistent with model calculations of snow reflectance with dust impurity. While the role of black carbon in snow cannot be ruled out, our satellite-based analysis suggests the observed spectral reflectance gradient dominated by dust-induced solar absorption during premonsoon season. From an observational viewpoint, this study underscores the importance of mineral dust deposition toward darkening of the western Himalayan snow cover, with potential implications to accelerated seasonal snowmelt and regional snow albedo feedbacks.

Terrestrial gamma-ray flashes in the Fermi era: Improved observations and analysis methods

Abstract: [1] A new data mode and new analysis methods are used to detect Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) with the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) 10 times more frequently than previously. In 1037 h of observations at times and over regions for which TGFs are expected, 384 new TGFs were found in addition to the 39 TGFs and two Terrestrial Electron Beam events already detected without the new data mode and methodology. Cosmic ray showers were found to be an important background; they show characteristic signatures in the data of both GBM and the Fermi Large Area Telescope Calorimeter that enable their removal, leaving a sample estimated to consist of ≈98% TGFs. The sample includes shorter TGFs than previously found with GBM. The true duration distribution likely contains additional short TGFs because their detection by GBM is limited by detector dead time. One-third of this sample has matches with locations from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)—maps of these locations show the geographic and meteorological features more clearly than maps of spacecraft locations. The intrinsic TGF rate is evaluated using the lightning rate maps of the Lightning Imaging Sensor, accounting for the detection efficiency of GBM as a function of spacecraft-source offset, from which we estimate a global TGF rate of ≈400,000 per year. With continuous production of data in the new mode we estimate that GBM will detect ≈850 TGFs per year.

Simulation of the microwave emission of multi-layered snowpacks using the Dense Media Radiative transfer theory: the DMRT-ML model

Abstract: . DMRT-ML is a physically based numerical model designed to compute the thermal microwave emission of a given snowpack. Its main application is the simulation of brightness temperatures at frequencies in the range 1–200 GHz similar to those acquired routinely by space-based microwave radiometers. The model is based on the Dense Media Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory for the computation of the snow scattering and extinction coefficients and on the Discrete Ordinate Method (DISORT) to numerically solve the radiative transfer equation. The snowpack is modeled as a stack of multiple horizontal snow layers and an optional underlying interface representing the soil or the bottom ice. The model handles both dry and wet snow conditions. Such a general design allows the model to account for a wide range of snow conditions. Hitherto, the model has been used to simulate the thermal emission of the deep firn on ice sheets, shallow snowpacks overlying soil in Arctic and Alpine regions, and overlying ice on the large ice-sheet margins and glaciers. DMRT-ML has thus been validated in three very different conditions: Antarctica, Barnes Ice Cap (Canada) and Canadian tundra. It has been recently used in conjunction with inverse methods to retrieve snow grain size from remote sensing data. The model is written in Fortran90 and available to the snow remote sensing community as an open-source software. A convenient user interface is provided in Python.

Alignment between flattened protostellar infall envelopes and ambient magnetic fields

Abstract: We present 350 μm polarization observations of four low-mass cores containing Class 0 protostars: L483, L1157, L1448-IRS2, and Serp-FIR1. This is the second paper in a larger survey aimed at testing magnetically regulated models for core-collapse. One key prediction of these models is that the mean magnetic field in a core should be aligned with the symmetry axis (minor axis) of the flattened young stellar object inner envelope (aka pseudodisk). Furthermore, the field should exhibit a pinched or hourglass-shaped morphology as gravity drags the field inward toward the central protostar. We combine our results for the four cores with results for three similar cores that were published in the first paper from our survey. An analysis of the 350 μm polarization data for the seven cores yields evidence of a positive correlation between mean field direction and pseudodisk symmetry axis. Our rough estimate for the probability of obtaining by pure chance a correlation as strong as the one we found is about 5%. In addition, we combine together data for multiple cores to create a source-averaged magnetic field map having improved signal-to-noise ratio, and this map shows good agreement between mean field direction and pseudodisk axis (they are within 15°). We also see hints of a magnetic pinch in the source-averaged map. We conclude that core-scale magnetic fields appear to be strong enough to guide gas infall, as predicted by the magnetically regulated models. Finally, we find evidence of a positive correlation between core magnetic field direction and bipolar outflow axis.