Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.
Zhen Zhang,Zhen Zhang,Niklaus E. Zimmermann,Andrea Stenke,Xin Li,Elke L. Hodson,Gaofeng Zhu,Chunlin Huang,Benjamin Poulter,Benjamin Poulter +9 more
TLDR
It is found that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenicCH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) and climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.Abstract:
Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m-2 to 0.19 W·m-2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.read more
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Soil microbiomes and climate change
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Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines, and discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate.
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Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014–2017:Implications for the Paris Agreement
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The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain.
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