Showing papers by "Cancer Epidemiology Unit published in 2018"

Meat consumption, health, and the environment

Abstract: Both the global average per capita consumption of meat and the total amount of meat consumed are rising, driven by increasing average individual incomes and by population growth. The consumption of different types of meat and meat products has substantial effects on people's health, and livestock production can have major negative effects on the environment. Here, we explore the evidence base for these assertions and the options policy-makers have should they wish to intervene to affect population meat consumption. We highlight where more research is required and the great importance of integrating insights from the natural and social sciences.

Prediction of acute myeloid leukaemia risk in healthy individuals

Abstract: The incidence of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 65. Most cases arise without any detectable early symptoms and patients usually present with the acute complications of bone marrow failure1. The onset of such de novo AML cases is typically preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in preleukaemic haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) that undergo clonal expansion2,3. However, recurrent AML mutations also accumulate in HSPCs during ageing of healthy individuals who do not develop AML, a phenomenon referred to as age-related clonal haematopoiesis (ARCH)4–8. Here we use deep sequencing to analyse genes that are recurrently mutated in AML to distinguish between individuals who have a high risk of developing AML and those with benign ARCH. We analysed peripheral blood cells from 95 individuals that were obtained on average 6.3 years before AML diagnosis (pre-AML group), together with 414 unselected age- and gender-matched individuals (control group). Pre-AML cases were distinct from controls and had more mutations per sample, higher variant allele frequencies, indicating greater clonal expansion, and showed enrichment of mutations in specific genes. Genetic parameters were used to derive a model that accurately predicted AML-free survival; this model was validated in an independent cohort of 29 pre-AML cases and 262 controls. Because AML is rare, we also developed an AML predictive model using a large electronic health record database that identified individuals at greater risk. Collectively our findings provide proof-of-concept that it is possible to discriminate ARCH from pre-AML many years before malignant transformation. This could in future enable earlier detection and monitoring, and may help to inform intervention.

GWAS identifies 14 loci for device-measured physical activity and sleep duration.

Abstract: Physical activity and sleep duration are established risk factors for many diseases, but their aetiology is poorly understood, partly due to relying on self-reported evidence. Here we report a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of device-measured physical activity and sleep duration in 91,105 UK Biobank participants, finding 14 significant loci (7 novel). These loci account for 0.06% of activity and 0.39% of sleep duration variation. Genome-wide estimates of ~ 15% phenotypic variation indicate high polygenicity. Heritability is higher in women than men for overall activity (23 vs. 20%, p = 1.5 × 10−4) and sedentary behaviours (18 vs. 15%, p = 9.7 × 10−4). Heritability partitioning, enrichment and pathway analyses indicate the central nervous system plays a role in activity behaviours. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation suggests that increased activity might causally lower diastolic blood pressure (beta mmHg/SD: −0.91, SE = 0.18, p = 8.2 × 10−7), and odds of hypertension (Odds ratio/SD: 0.84, SE = 0.03, p = 4.9 × 10−8). Our results advocate the value of physical activity for reducing blood pressure. Studying the genetic underpinnings of physical activity and sleep duration can be confounded by self-reporting. Here, Doherty et al. use data from 91,105 UK Biobank participants, whose activity had been monitored for a week by a wearable device, for genome-wide association analysis and identify 14 loci.

Separate and combined associations of obesity and metabolic health with coronary heart disease: a pan-European case-cohort analysis.

Abstract: EPIC-CVD has been supported by the European Union Framework 7 (HEALTH-F2-2012-279233), the European Research Council (268834), the UK Medical Research Council (G0800270 and MR/L003120/1), the British Heart Foundation (SP/09/002 and RG/08/014 and RG13/13/30194), and the UK National Institute of Health Research. EPIC Asturias was also supported by the Regional Government of Asturias. EPIC-Greece is also supported by the Hellenic Health Foundation. EPIC- Heidelberg was also supported by the German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Centre, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. EPIC-Oxford was also supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MR/M012190/1) and Cancer Research UK (570/A16491). EPIC-Ragusa was also supported by the Sicilian Government, AIRE ONLUS Ragusa, and AVIS Ragusa. EPIC-Turin was supported also by the Compagnia di San Paolo and the Human Genetics Foundation-Torino (HuGeF).

Dietary assessment in UK Biobank: an evaluation of the performance of the touchscreen dietary questionnaire

Abstract: UK Biobank is an open access prospective cohort of 500 000 men and women. Information on the frequency of consumption of main foods was collected at recruitment with a touchscreen questionnaire; prior to examining the associations between diet and disease, it is essential to evaluate the performance of the dietary touchscreen questionnaire. The objectives of the present paper are to: describe the repeatability of the touchscreen questionnaire in participants (n 20 348) who repeated the assessment centre visit approximately 4 years after recruitment, and compare the dietary touchscreen variables with mean intakes from participants (n 140 080) who completed at least one of the four web-based 24-h dietary assessments post-recruitment. For fish and meat items, 90 % or more of participants reported the same or adjacent category of intake at the repeat assessment visit; for vegetables and fruit, and for a derived partial fibre score (in fifths), 70 % or more of participants were classified into the same or adjacent category of intake (κweighted > 0·50 for all). Participants were also categorised based on their responses to the dietary touchscreen questionnaire at recruitment, and within each category the group mean intake of the same food group or nutrient from participants who had completed at least one web-based 24-h dietary assessment was calculated. The comparison showed that the dietary touchscreen variables, available on the full cohort, reliably rank participants according to intakes of the main food groups.

Assessment of Lung Cancer Risk on the Basis of a Biomarker Panel of Circulating Proteins.

Abstract: Importance There is an urgent need to improve lung cancer risk assessment because current screening criteria miss a large proportion of cases.Objective To investigate whether a lung cancer risk p ...

Nutritional quality of food as represented by the FSAm-NPS nutrient profiling system underlying the Nutri-Score label and cancer risk in Europe: Results from the EPIC prospective cohort study

Abstract: Background: Helping consumers make healthier food choices is a key issue for the prevention of cancer and other diseases In many countries, political authorities are considering the implementation of a simplified labelling system to reflect the nutritional quality of food products The Nutri-Score, a five-colour nutrition label, is derived from the Nutrient Profiling System of the British Food Standards Agency (modified version) (FSAm-NPS) How the consumption of foods with high/low FSAm-NPS relates to cancer risk has been studied in national/regional cohorts but has not been characterized in diverse European populations Methods and findings: This prospective analysis included 471,495 adults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, 1992–2014, median follow-up: 153 y), among whom there were 49,794 incident cancer cases (main locations: breast, n = 12,063; prostate, n = 6,745; colon-rectum, n = 5,806) Usual food intakes were assessed with standardized country-specific diet assessment methods The FSAm-NPS was calculated for each food/beverage using their 100-g content in energy, sugar, saturated fatty acid, sodium, fibres, proteins, and fruits/vegetables/legumes/nuts The FSAm-NPS scores of all food items usually consumed by a participant were averaged to obtain the individual FSAm-NPS Dietary Index (DI) scores Multi-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were computed A higher FSAm-NPS DI score, reflecting a lower nutritional quality of the food consumed, was associated with a higher risk of total cancer (HRQ5 versus Q1 = 107; 95% CI 103–110, P-trend < 0001) Absolute cancer rates in those with high and low (quintiles 5 and 1) FSAm-NPS DI scores were 814 and 695 cases/10,000 person-years, respectively Higher FSAm-NPS DI scores were specifically associated with higher risks of cancers of the colon-rectum, upper aerodigestive tract and stomach, lung for men, and liver and postmenopausal breast for women (all P < 005) The main study limitation is that it was based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data obtained through a single baseline food frequency questionnaire; thus, exposure misclassification and residual confounding cannot be ruled out Conclusions: In this large multinational European cohort, the consumption of food products with a higher FSAm-NPS score (lower nutritional quality) was associated with a higher risk of cancer This supports the relevance of the FSAm-NPS as underlying nutrient profiling system for front-of-pack nutrition labels, as well as for other public health nutritional measures

Alcohol intake in relation to non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease and stroke: EPIC-CVD case-cohort study

Abstract: Objective To investigate the association between alcohol consumption (at baseline and over lifetime) and non-fatal and fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Design Multicentre case-cohort study. Setting A study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) determinants within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition cohort (EPIC-CVD) from eight European countries. Participants 32 549 participants without baseline CVD, comprised of incident CVD cases and a subcohort for comparison. Main outcome measures Non-fatal and fatal CHD and stroke (including ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke). Results There were 9307 non-fatal CHD events, 1699 fatal CHD, 5855 non-fatal stroke, and 733 fatal stroke. Baseline alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD, with a hazard ratio of 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96) per 12 g/day higher intake. There was a J shaped association between baseline alcohol intake and risk of fatal CHD. The hazard ratios were 0.83 (0.70 to 0.98), 0.65 (0.53 to 0.81), and 0.82 (0.65 to 1.03) for categories 5.0-14.9 g/day, 15.0-29.9 g/day, and 30.0-59.9 g/day of total alcohol intake, respectively, compared with 0.1-4.9 g/day. In contrast, hazard ratios for non-fatal and fatal stroke risk were 1.04 (1.02 to 1.07), and 1.05 (0.98 to 1.13) per 12 g/day increase in baseline alcohol intake, respectively, including broadly similar findings for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. Associations with cardiovascular outcomes were broadly similar with average lifetime alcohol consumption as for baseline alcohol intake, and across the eight countries studied. There was no strong evidence for interactions of alcohol consumption with smoking status on the risk of CVD events. Conclusions Alcohol intake was inversely associated with non-fatal CHD risk but positively associated with the risk of different stroke subtypes. This highlights the opposing associations of alcohol intake with different CVD types and strengthens the evidence for policies to reduce alcohol consumption.

Nut intake and 5-year changes in body weight and obesity risk in adults: results from the EPIC-PANACEA study.

Abstract: There is inconsistent evidence regarding the relationship between higher intake of nuts, being an energy-dense food, and weight gain. We investigated the relationship between nut intake and changes in weight over 5 years. This study includes 373,293 men and women, 25–70 years old, recruited between 1992 and 2000 from 10 European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Habitual intake of nuts including peanuts, together defined as nut intake, was estimated from country-specific validated dietary questionnaires. Body weight was measured at recruitment and self-reported 5 years later. The association between nut intake and body weight change was estimated using multilevel mixed linear regression models with center/country as random effect and nut intake and relevant confounders as fixed effects. The relative risk (RR) of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to baseline body mass index (BMI). On average, study participants gained 2.1 kg (SD 5.0 kg) over 5 years. Compared to non-consumers, subjects in the highest quartile of nut intake had less weight gain over 5 years (−0.07 kg; 95% CI −0.12 to −0.02) (P trend = 0.025) and had 5% lower risk of becoming overweight (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.92–0.98) or obese (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90–0.99) (both P trend <0.008). Higher intake of nuts is associated with reduced weight gain and a lower risk of becoming overweight or obese.

Physical activity, sedentary behaviour and colorectal cancer risk in the UK Biobank

Abstract: Observational studies have shown that physical activity levels are inversely, and sedentary behaviours are positively, associated with colorectal cancer risk; however, whether these relationships are consistent across anatomical subsites is uncertain. We investigated the associations between colorectal cancer and physical activity (metabolic equivalents (METs)-hours per week), and indicators of sedentary behaviour (television watching time and time spent using computers) among 430 584 men and women enroled in the UK Biobank. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. After a median follow-up time of 5.6 years, 2391 incident colorectal cancer cases were recorded. High (⩾60-MET-hours per week) vs low (<10-MET-hours per week) total physical activity was associated with a lower colon cancer risk (HR=0.84, 95% CI: 0.72–0.98; p-trend=0.04), with comparable relationships observed for proximal and distal colon tumours, but no association for rectal cancer. Higher levels of television watching time were associated with greater colon cancer risk (HR for ⩾5 h per day vs ⩽1 h per day=1.32, 95% CI: 1.04–1.68; p-trend=0.007). Time spent using computers was not associated with colorectal cancer risk. Higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower colon cancer risk, with no heterogeneity by colonic subsite. Sedentary behaviour (television watching) was associated with elevated colon cancer risk.

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Abstract: Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Air pollution and incidence of cancers of the stomach and the upper aerodigestive tract in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).

Abstract: Air pollution has been classified as carcinogenic to humans. However, to date little is known about the relevance for cancers of the stomach and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT). We investigated the association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution with incidence of gastric and UADT cancer in 11 European cohorts. Air pollution exposure was assigned by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) below 10 µm (PM10 ), below 2.5 µm (PM2.5 ), between 2.5 and 10 µm (PMcoarse ), PM2.5 absorbance and nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOX ) as well as approximated by traffic indicators. Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders were used for cohort-specific analyses. Combined estimates were determined with random effects meta-analyses. During average follow-up of 14.1 years of 305,551 individuals, 744 incident cases of gastric cancer and 933 of UADT cancer occurred. The hazard ratio for an increase of 5 µg/m3 of PM2.5 was 1.38 (95% CI 0.99; 1.92) for gastric and 1.05 (95% CI 0.62; 1.77) for UADT cancers. No associations were found for any of the other exposures considered. Adjustment for additional confounders and restriction to study participants with stable addresses did not influence markedly the effect estimate for PM2.5 and gastric cancer. Higher estimated risks of gastric cancer associated with PM2.5 was found in men (HR 1.98 [1.30; 3.01]) as compared to women (HR 0.85 [0.5; 1.45]). This large multicentre cohort study shows an association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and gastric cancer, but not UADT cancers, suggesting that air pollution may contribute to gastric cancer risk.

Adipokines and inflammation markers and risk of differentiated thyroid carcinoma: The EPIC study

Abstract: Other than the influence of ionizing radiation and benign thyroid disease, little is known about the risk factors for differentiated thyroid cancer (TC) which is an increasing common cancer worldwi ...

Histological subtypes of ovarian cancer associated with parity and breastfeeding in the prospective Million Women Study.

Abstract: Ovarian cancer risk is known to be reduced amongst women who have had children, but reported associations with breastfeeding are varied. Few studies have had sufficient power to explore reliably these associations by tumour histotype. In a prospective study of 1.1 million UK women, 8719 developed ovarian cancer during follow-up. Cox regression yielded adjusted relative risks (RRs) overall and by tumour histotype amongst women with different childbearing patterns. Nulliparous women had a 24% greater ovarian cancer risk than women with one child, with significant heterogeneity by histotype (p = 0.01). There was no significant increase in serous tumours, a modest increase in mucinous tumours, but a substantial increase in endometrioid (RR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.18-1.89) and clear-cell tumours (RR = 1.68, 1.29-2.20). Among parous women, each additional birth was associated with an overall 6% reduction in ovarian cancer risk; this association also varied by histotype (p = 0.0006), with the largest reduction in risk for clear-cell tumours (RR per birth = 0.75, 0.65-0.85, p < 0.001) and weak, if any, effect for endometrioid, high-grade serous, or mucinous tumours. We found little association with age at first or last birth. There was about a 10% risk reduction per 12-months breastfeeding (RR = 0.89, 0.84-0.94, p < 0.001), with no significant heterogeneity by histotype, but statistical power was limited. In this large prospective study, ovarian cancer risk associated with parity varied substantially by tumour histotype. Nulliparity was associated with a substantially greater overall risk than expected from the effect of a single birth, especially for clear cell and endometrioid tumours, perhaps suggesting that infertility is associated with these histotypes.

Cord Blood Metabolic Signatures of Birth Weight: A Population-Based Study

Abstract: Birth weight is an important indicator of maternal and fetal health and a predictor of health in later life However, the determinants of variance in birth weight are still poorly understood We aimed to identify the biological pathways, which may be perturbed by environmental exposures, that are important in determining birth weight We applied untargeted mass-spectrometry-based metabolomics to 481 cord blood samples collected at delivery in four birth cohorts from across Europe: ENVIRONAGE (Belgium), INMA (Spain), Piccolipiu (Italy), and Rhea (Greece) We performed a metabolome-wide association scan for birth weight on over 4000 metabolic features, controlling the false discovery rate at 5% Annotation of compounds was conducted through reference to authentic standards We identified 68 metabolites significantly associated with birth weight, including vitamin A, progesterone, docosahexaenoic acid, indolelactic acid, and multiple acylcarnitines and phosphatidylcholines We observed enrichment (p < 005) of the tryptophan metabolism, prostaglandin formation, C21-steroid hormone signaling, carnitine shuttle, and glycerophospholipid metabolism pathways Vitamin A was associated with both maternal smoking and birth weight, suggesting a mediation pathway Our findings shed new light on the pathways central to fetal growth and will have implications for antenatal and perinatal care and potentially for health in later life

Factors influencing patients' satisfaction at different levels of health facilities in Bangladesh: Results from patient exit interviews.

Abstract: There is a paucity in current literature about the level of patients' satisfaction and factors influencing it in Bangladesh health system. We aimed to measure the level of patients' satisfaction across different types and levels of healthcare facilities and to determine which factors influence this satisfaction level. A patient exit interview was carried out among 2207 patients attending selected health facilities in two administrative divisions of Bangladesh, namely Rajshahi and Sylhet. Information on healthcare experience and satisfaction with received care was collected through an electronic structured questionnaire. Information about 'overall satisfaction with healthcare' was collected on a 10-point scale and then dichotomized based on the median-split. Binomial logistic regressions, both simple and multivariable, were conducted to identify which factors contribute significantly to patients' satisfaction. We found that 63.2% of the participants were satisfied with the healthcare service they received. Patients attending the private facilities had the highest level of satisfaction (i.e. 73%) and patients attending the primary care facilities had the lowest level of satisfaction (i.e. 52%). Factors like convenient opening hours, asking related questions to the providers, facility cleanliness and privacy settings were significantly associated with patients' satisfaction. Being satisfied with facility cleanliness (multivariable OR 4.30; 95% CI: 3.29-5.62) and privacy settings (multivariable OR 1.68; 95% CI: 1.28-2.21) were the strongest predictors of patients' satisfaction. In conclusion, a significant portion of the patients in Bangladesh are not satisfied with their received care. Patients' satisfaction can be increased by focusing on improving facility cleanliness, privacy settings and providers' interpersonal skills.

Adiposity and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women: Results from the UK Biobank prospective cohort.

Abstract: Body size is an important modifiable risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer. However, it remains unclear whether direct measures of fat mass are better indicators of risk than anthropometric measures, or whether central adiposity may contribute to risk beyond overall adiposity. We analyzed data from 162,691 postmenopausal women in UK Biobank followed from 2006 to 2014. Body size was measured by trained technicians. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate relative risks. Analyses were stratified by age at recruitment, region and socioeconomic status, and adjusted for family history of breast cancer, age at menarche, age at first birth, parity, age at menopause, previous hormone replacement therapy use, smoking, alcohol intake, height, physical activity and ethnicity. We observed 2,913 incident invasive breast cancers during a mean 5.7 years of follow-up. There was a continuous increase in risk of postmenopausal breast cancer with increasing adiposity, across all measures. The point estimate, comparing women in the top (median 37.6 kg) to bottom (median 17.6 kg) quartile of body fat mass was 1.70 (95% confidence interval 1.52-1.90). The magnitudes of the associations between per SD increase in BMI and body fat mass with breast cancer risk were similar, suggesting impedance measures of fat were not substantially better indicators of risk than anthropometric measures. After adjusting for body fat mass, the associations between anthropometric measures of central adiposity and breast cancer risk were attenuated. The magnitude of risk, across all measures of adiposity, was greater in women who had been postmenopausal for 12 or more years.

The PanCareSurFup cohort of 83,333 five-year survivors of childhood cancer: a cohort from 12 European countries.

Abstract: Childhood cancer survivors face risks from a variety of late effects, including cardiac events, second cancers, and late mortality. The aim of the pan-European PanCare Childhood and Adolescent Cancer Survivor Care and Follow-Up Studies (PanCareSurFup) Consortium was to collect data on incidence and risk factors for these late effects among childhood cancer survivors in Europe. This paper describes the methodology of the data collection for the overall PanCareSurFup cohort and the outcome-related cohorts. In PanCareSurFup 13 data providers from 12 countries delivered data to the data centre in Mainz. Data providers used a single variable list that covered all three outcomes. After validity and plausibility checks data was provided to the outcome-specific working groups. In total, we collected data on 115,596 patients diagnosed with cancer from 1940 to 2011, of whom 83,333 had survived 5 years or more. Due to the eligibility criteria and other requirements different numbers of survivors were eligible for the analysis of each of the outcomes. Thus, 1014 patients with at least one cardiac event were identified from a cohort of 39,152 5-year survivors; for second cancers 3995 survivors developed at least one second cancer from a cohort of 71,494 individuals, and from the late mortality cohort of 79,441 who had survived at least 5 years, 9247 died subsequently. Through the close cooperation of many European countries and the establishment of one central data collection and harmonising centre, the project succeeded in generating the largest cohort of children with cancer to date.

Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020

Abstract: Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis. Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software. In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis. The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.

Dietary intake of total polyphenol and polyphenol classes and the risk of colorectal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

Abstract: Polyphenols may play a chemopreventive role in colorectal cancer (CRC); however, epidemiological evidence supporting a role for intake of individual polyphenol classes, other than flavonoids is insufficient. We evaluated the association between dietary intakes of total and individual classes and subclasses of polyphenols and CRC risk and its main subsites, colon and rectum, within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The cohort included 476,160 men and women from 10 European countries. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, there were 5991 incident CRC cases, of which 3897 were in the colon and 2094 were in the rectum. Polyphenol intake was estimated using validated centre/country specific dietary questionnaires and the Phenol-Explorer database. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, a doubling in total dietary polyphenol intake was not associated with CRC risk in women (HRlog2 = 1.06, 95% CI 0.99-1.14) or in men (HRlog2 = 0.97, 95% CI 0.90-1.05), respectively. Phenolic acid intake, highly correlated with coffee consumption, was inversely associated with colon cancer in men (HRlog2 = 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.97) and positively associated with rectal cancer in women (HRlog2 = 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19); although associations did not exceed the Bonferroni threshold for significance. Intake of other polyphenol classes was not related to colorectal, colon or rectal cancer risks. Our study suggests a possible inverse association between phenolic acid intake and colon cancer risk in men and positive with rectal cancer risk in women.

Mitochondrial DNA copy number variation, leukocyte telomere length, and breast cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

Abstract: Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and mitochondrial genome (mtDNA) copy number and deletions have been proposed as risk markers for various cancer types, including breast cancer (BC). To gain a more comprehensive picture on how these markers can modulate BC risk, alone or in conjunction, we performed simultaneous measurements of LTL and mtDNA copy number in up to 570 BC cases and 538 controls from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. As a first step, we measured LTL and mtDNA copy number in 96 individuals for which a blood sample had been collected twice with an interval of 15 years. According to the intraclass correlation (ICC), we found very good stability over the time period for both measurements, with ICCs of 0.63 for LTL and 0.60 for mtDNA copy number. In the analysis of the entire study sample, we observed that longer LTL was strongly associated with increased risk of BC (OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.58–4.65, p = 3.07 × 10− 4 for highest vs. lowest quartile; OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.57–6.55, p = 1.41 × 10− 3 as a continuous variable). We did not find any association between mtDNA copy number and BC risk; however, when considering only the functional copies, we observed an increased risk of developing estrogen receptor-positive BC (OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.05–5.80, p = 0.04 for highest vs. lowest quartile). We observed a very good correlation between the markers over a period of 15 years. We confirm a role of LTL in BC carcinogenesis and suggest an effect of mtDNA copy number on BC risk.

Risk of Subsequent Bone Cancers Among 69 460 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood and Adolescent Cancer in Europe

Abstract: Introduction: We investigate the risks of subsequent primary bone cancers after childhood and adolescent cancer in 12 European countries. For the first time, we satisfactorily address the risks beyond 40 years from diagnosis and beyond 40 years of age among all survivors.Methods: This largest-ever assembled cohort comprises 69 460 five-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before age 20 years. Standardized incidence ratios, absolute excess risks, and multivariable-adjusted relative risks and relative excess risks were calculated. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: Overall, survivors were 21.65 times (95% confidence interval = 18.97 to 24.60 times) more likely to be diagnosed with a subsequent primary bone cancer than expected from the general population. The greatest excess numbers of bone cancers were observed after retinoblastoma, bone sarcoma, and soft tissue sarcoma. The excess number of bone cancers declined linearly with both years since diagnosis and attained age (all P < .05). Beyond 40 years from diagnosis and age 40 years, there were at most 0.45 excess bone cancers among all survivors per 10 000 person-years at risk; beyond 30 years from diagnosis and age 30 years, there were at most 5.02 excess bone cancers after each of retinoblastoma, bone sarcoma, and soft tissue sarcoma, per 10 000 person-years at risk.Conclusions: For all survivors combined and the cancer groups with the greatest excess number of bone cancers, the excess numbers observed declined with both age and years from diagnosis. These results provide novel, reliable, and unbiased information about risks and risk factors among long-term survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer. (Less)

Micronutrient intake adequacy and depression risk in the SUN cohort study

Abstract: The aim of the study was to prospectively assess the association between micronutrient intake adequacy and risk of depression. This dynamic cohort study involves Spanish university graduates (SUN Project). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline and after 10 years of follow-up with a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Micronutrient intake adequacy for vitamins B1, B2, B3, B6, B12, C, A, D, E, folic acid, zinc, iodine, selenium, iron, calcium, potassium, phosphorus, magnesium and chrome was estimated. Inadequate intake for each nutrient was defined when the intake of the nutrient was below the estimated average requirements (EAR) if available or the adequate intake levels, if EARs were not available. We compared participants with inadequate intake for ≥4 nutrients vs. those with one nutrient. Participants were classified as having incident depression if they had no previous history of depression or antidepressants use at baseline, but they reported during follow-up a new clinical diagnosis of depression by a physician, use of antidepressant drugs, or both. Time-dependent multivariable Cox regression models were fitted. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years, 953 new cases of depression were observed among 13,983 participants. Participants with inadequate intake for ≥4 nutrients showed a significantly higher risk of depression [multivariable hazard ratio (HR) = 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.85]. When the analyses were updated with repeated assessments of intakes, the association was attenuated and it was no longer statistically significant (Multivariable HR = 1.11; 95% CI 0.82–1.51). Micronutrient inadequacy in four or more micronutrients could exert a moderate role in the development of depression.

Risk of Soft-Tissue Sarcoma Among 69 460 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Europe

Abstract: Background Childhood cancer survivors are at risk of subsequent primary soft-tissue sarcomas (STS), but the risks of specific STS histological subtypes are unknown. We quantified the risk of STS histological subtypes after specific types of childhood cancer. Methods We pooled data from 13 European cohorts, yielding a cohort of 69 460 five-year survivors of childhood cancer. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs) were calculated. Results Overall, 301 STS developed compared with 19 expected (SIR = 15.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 14.0 to 17.6). The highest standardized incidence ratios were for malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST; SIR = 40.6, 95% CI = 29.6 to 54.3), leiomyosarcomas (SIR = 29.9, 95% CI = 23.7 to 37.2), and fibromatous neoplasms (SIR = 12.3, 95% CI = 9.3 to 16.0). SIRs for MPNST were highest following central nervous system tumors (SIR = 80.5, 95% CI = 48.4 to 125.7), Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 81.3, 95% CI = 35.1 to 160.1), and Wilms tumor (SIR = 76.0, 95% CI = 27.9 to 165.4). Standardized incidence ratios for leiomyosarcoma were highest following retinoblastoma (SIR = 342.9, 95% CI = 245.0 to 466.9) and Wilms tumor (SIR = 74.2, 95% CI = 37.1 to 132.8). AERs for all STS subtypes were generally low at all years from diagnosis (AER < 1 per 10 000 person-years), except for leiomyosarcoma following retinoblastoma, for which the AER reached 52.7 (95% CI = 20.0 to 85.5) per 10 000 person-years among patients who had survived at least 45 years from diagnosis of retinoblastoma. Conclusions For the first time, we provide risk estimates of specific STS subtypes following childhood cancers and give evidence that risks of MPNSTs, leiomyosarcomas, and fibromatous neoplasms are particularly increased. While the multiplicative excess risks relative to the general population are substantial, the absolute excess risk of developing any STS subtype is low, except for leiomyosarcoma after retinoblastoma. These results are likely to be informative for both survivors and health care providers.

A case–control study of HIV infection and cancer in the era of antiretroviral therapy in Rwanda

Abstract: The aim of this study was to assess the association between HIV infection and cancer risk in Rwanda approximately a decade after the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (cART). All persons seeking cancer care at Butaro Cancer Center of Excellence (BCCOE) in Rwanda from 2012 to 2016 were routinely screened for HIV, prior to being confirmed with or without cancer (cases and controls, respectively). Cases were coded according to ICD-O-3 and converted to ICD10. Associations between individual cancer types and HIV were estimated using adjusted unconditional logistic regression. 2,656 cases and 1,196 controls differed by gender (80.3% vs. 70.8% female), age (mean 45.5 vs. 37.7 years), place of residence and proportion of diagnoses made by histopathology (87.5% vs. 67.4%). After adjustment for these variables, HIV was significantly associated with Kaposi Sarcoma (n = 60; OR = 110.3, 95%CI 46.8-259.6), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (n = 265; OR = 2.5, 1.4-4.6), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) (n = 76; OR = 5.2, 2.3-11.6) and cancers of the cervix (n = 560; OR = 5.9, 3.8-9.2), vulva (n = 23; OR = 17.8, 6.3-50.1), penis (n = 29; OR = 8.3, 2.5-27.4) and eye (n = 17; OR = 4.7, 1.0-25.0). Associations varied by NHL/HL subtype, with that for NHL being limited to DLBCL (n = 56; OR = 6.6, 3.1-14.1), particularly plasmablastic lymphoma (n = 6, OR = 106, 12.1-921). No significant associations were seen with other commonly diagnosed cancers, including female breast cancer (n = 559), head and neck (n = 116) and colorectal cancer (n = 106). In conclusion, in the era of cART in Rwanda, HIV is associated with increased risk of a range of infection-related cancers, and accounts for an important fraction of cancers presenting to a referral hospital.

Prediagnostic Serum Vitamin D Levels and the Risk of Crohn’s Disease and Ulcerative Colitis in European Populations: A Nested Case-Control Study

Abstract: Background A low vitamin D status has been put forward as a potential risk factor for the development of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study investigated the association between prediagnostic circulating vitamin D concentrations and dietary intakes of vitamin D, and the risk of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Methods Among 359,728 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, individuals who developed CD or UC after enrollment were identified. Each case was matched with2 controls by center, gender, age, date of recruitment, and follow-up time. At cohort entry, blood samples were collected and dietary vitamin D intakes were obtained from validated food frequency questionnaires. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Conditional logistic regression was performed to determine the odds of CD and UC. Results Seventy-two participants developed CD and 169 participants developed UC after a median follow-up of 4.7 and 4.1 years, respectively. Compared with the lowest quartile, no associations with the 3 higher quartiles of vitamin D concentrations were observed for CD (p trend = 0.34) or UC (p trend = 0.66). Similarly, no associations were detected when serum vitamin D levels were analyzed as a continuous variable. Dietary vitamin D intakes were not associated with CD (p trend = 0.39) or UC (p trend = 0.83). Conclusions Vitamin D status was not associated with the development of CD or UC. This does not suggest a major role for vitamin D deficiency in the etiology of IBD, although larger studies are needed to confirm these findings.