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Showing papers by "University of Southampton published in 2020"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The European Position Paper on Rhinosinusitis and Nasal Polyps 2020 is the update of similar evidence based position papers published in 2005 and 2007 and 2012 and addresses areas not extensively covered in EPOS2012 such as paediatric CRS and sinus surgery.
Abstract: The European Position Paper on Rhinosinusitis and Nasal Polyps 2020 is the update of similar evidence based position papers published in 2005 and 2007 and 2012. The core objective of the EPOS2020 guideline is to provide revised, up-to-date and clear evidence-based recommendations and integrated care pathways in ARS and CRS. EPOS2020 provides an update on the literature published and studies undertaken in the eight years since the EPOS2012 position paper was published and addresses areas not extensively covered in EPOS2012 such as paediatric CRS and sinus surgery. EPOS2020 also involves new stakeholders, including pharmacists and patients, and addresses new target users who have become more involved in the management and treatment of rhinosinusitis since the publication of the last EPOS document, including pharmacists, nurses, specialised care givers and indeed patients themselves, who employ increasing self-management of their condition using over the counter treatments. The document provides suggestions for future research in this area and offers updated guidance for definitions and outcome measurements in research in different settings. EPOS2020 contains chapters on definitions and classification where we have defined a large number of terms and indicated preferred terms. A new classification of CRS into primary and secondary CRS and further division into localized and diffuse disease, based on anatomic distribution is proposed. There are extensive chapters on epidemiology and predisposing factors, inflammatory mechanisms, (differential) diagnosis of facial pain, allergic rhinitis, genetics, cystic fibrosis, aspirin exacerbated respiratory disease, immunodeficiencies, allergic fungal rhinosinusitis and the relationship between upper and lower airways. The chapters on paediatric acute and chronic rhinosinusitis are totally rewritten. All available evidence for the management of acute rhinosinusitis and chronic rhinosinusitis with or without nasal polyps in adults and children is systematically reviewed and integrated care pathways based on the evidence are proposed. Despite considerable increases in the amount of quality publications in recent years, a large number of practical clinical questions remain. It was agreed that the best way to address these was to conduct a Delphi exercise . The results have been integrated into the respective sections. Last but not least, advice for patients and pharmacists and a new list of research needs are included. The full document can be downloaded for free on the website of this journal: http://www.rhinologyjournal.com.

2,853 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 May 2020-Science
TL;DR: Real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history are used to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures.
Abstract: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

2,362 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The ARRIVE guidelines (Animal Research: Reporting of In Vivo Experiments) have been updated and information reorganised to facilitate their use in practice to help ensure that researchers, reviewers, and journal editors are better equipped to improve the rigour and transparency of the scientific process and thus reproducibility.
Abstract: Reproducible science requires transparent reporting. The ARRIVE guidelines (Animal Research: Reporting of In Vivo Experiments) were originally developed in 2010 to improve the reporting of animal research. They consist of a checklist of information to include in publications describing in vivo experiments to enable others to scrutinise the work adequately, evaluate its methodological rigour, and reproduce the methods and results. Despite considerable levels of endorsement by funders and journals over the years, adherence to the guidelines has been inconsistent, and the anticipated improvements in the quality of reporting in animal research publications have not been achieved. Here, we introduce ARRIVE 2.0. The guidelines have been updated and information reorganised to facilitate their use in practice. We used a Delphi exercise to prioritise and divide the items of the guidelines into 2 sets, the “ARRIVE Essential 10,” which constitutes the minimum requirement, and the “Recommended Set,” which describes the research context. This division facilitates improved reporting of animal research by supporting a stepwise approach to implementation. This helps journal editors and reviewers verify that the most important items are being reported in manuscripts. We have also developed the accompanying Explanation and Elaboration document, which serves (1) to explain the rationale behind each item in the guidelines, (2) to clarify key concepts, and (3) to provide illustrative examples. We aim, through these changes, to help ensure that researchers, reviewers, and journal editors are better equipped to improve the rigour and transparency of the scientific process and thus reproducibility.

1,796 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Pierre Friedlingstein1, Pierre Friedlingstein2, Michael O'Sullivan1, Matthew W. Jones3, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters4, Wouter Peters5, Julia Pongratz6, Julia Pongratz7, Stephen Sitch2, Corinne Le Quéré3, Josep G. Canadell8, Philippe Ciais9, Robert B. Jackson10, Simone R. Alin11, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão12, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão2, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates13, Nicholas R. Bates14, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp15, Selma Bultan7, Naveen Chandra16, Naveen Chandra17, Frédéric Chevallier9, Louise Chini18, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie5, Piers M. Forster19, Thomas Gasser20, Marion Gehlen9, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis21, Luke Gregor22, Nicolas Gruber22, Ian Harris23, Kerstin Hartung7, Kerstin Hartung24, Vanessa Haverd8, Richard A. Houghton25, Tatiana Ilyina6, Atul K. Jain26, Emilie Joetzjer27, Koji Kadono28, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis29, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer6, Nathalie Lefèvre30, Andrew Lenton31, Sebastian Lienert32, Zhu Liu33, Danica Lombardozzi34, Gregg Marland35, Nicolas Metzl30, David R. Munro11, David R. Munro36, Julia E. M. S. Nabel6, S. Nakaoka17, Yosuke Niwa17, Kevin D. O'Brien11, Kevin D. O'Brien37, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot38, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy39, Eddy Robertson40, Christian Rödenbeck6, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian27, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith3, Adrienne J. Sutton11, Toste Tanhua41, Pieter P. Tans11, Hanqin Tian42, Bronte Tilbrook43, Bronte Tilbrook31, Guido R. van der Werf44, N. Vuichard9, Anthony P. Walker45, Rik Wanninkhof38, Andrew J. Watson2, David R. Willis23, Andy Wiltshire40, Wenping Yuan46, Xu Yue47, Sönke Zaehle6 
École Normale Supérieure1, University of Exeter2, Norwich Research Park3, University of Groningen4, Wageningen University and Research Centre5, Max Planck Society6, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich7, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation8, Université Paris-Saclay9, Stanford University10, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration11, National Institute for Space Research12, University of Southampton13, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences14, PSL Research University15, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology16, National Institute for Environmental Studies17, University of Maryland, College Park18, University of Leeds19, International Institute of Minnesota20, Flanders Marine Institute21, ETH Zurich22, University of East Anglia23, German Aerospace Center24, Woods Hole Research Center25, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign26, University of Toulouse27, Japan Meteorological Agency28, Plymouth Marine Laboratory29, University of Paris30, Hobart Corporation31, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research32, Tsinghua University33, National Center for Atmospheric Research34, Appalachian State University35, University of Colorado Boulder36, University of Washington37, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory38, Princeton University39, Met Office40, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences41, Auburn University42, University of Tasmania43, VU University Amsterdam44, Oak Ridge National Laboratory45, Sun Yat-sen University46, Nanjing University47
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, including emissions from land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models.
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quere et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).

1,764 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Peter J. Campbell1, Gad Getz2, Jan O. Korbel3, Joshua M. Stuart4  +1329 moreInstitutions (238)
06 Feb 2020-Nature
TL;DR: The flagship paper of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes Consortium describes the generation of the integrative analyses of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types, the structures for international data sharing and standardized analyses, and the main scientific findings from across the consortium studies.
Abstract: Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale1,2,3. Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4–5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter4; identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation5,6; analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution7; describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity8,9; and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18.

1,600 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
31 Mar 2020-Science
TL;DR: The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50), and suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence.
Abstract: Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

1,582 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
04 May 2020-Science
TL;DR: It is shown how SARS-CoV-2 S glycans differ from typical host glycan processing, which may have implications in viral pathobiology and vaccine design, and enables mapping of the glycan-processing states across the trimeric viral spike.
Abstract: The emergence of the betacoronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), represents a considerable threat to global human health. Vaccine development is focused on the principal target of the humoral immune response, the spike (S) glycoprotein, which mediates cell entry and membrane fusion. The SARS-CoV-2 S gene encodes 22 N-linked glycan sequons per protomer, which likely play a role in protein folding and immune evasion. Here, using a site-specific mass spectrometric approach, we reveal the glycan structures on a recombinant SARS-CoV-2 S immunogen. This analysis enables mapping of the glycan-processing states across the trimeric viral spike. We show how SARS-CoV-2 S glycans differ from typical host glycan processing, which may have implications in viral pathobiology and vaccine design.

1,190 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
B. P. Abbott1, R. Abbott1, T. D. Abbott2, Sheelu Abraham3  +1271 moreInstitutions (145)
TL;DR: In 2019, the LIGO Livingston detector observed a compact binary coalescence with signal-to-noise ratio 12.9 and the Virgo detector was also taking data that did not contribute to detection due to a low SINR but were used for subsequent parameter estimation as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: On 2019 April 25, the LIGO Livingston detector observed a compact binary coalescence with signal-to-noise ratio 12.9. The Virgo detector was also taking data that did not contribute to detection due to a low signal-to-noise ratio, but were used for subsequent parameter estimation. The 90% credible intervals for the component masses range from to if we restrict the dimensionless component spin magnitudes to be smaller than 0.05). These mass parameters are consistent with the individual binary components being neutron stars. However, both the source-frame chirp mass and the total mass of this system are significantly larger than those of any other known binary neutron star (BNS) system. The possibility that one or both binary components of the system are black holes cannot be ruled out from gravitational-wave data. We discuss possible origins of the system based on its inconsistency with the known Galactic BNS population. Under the assumption that the signal was produced by a BNS coalescence, the local rate of neutron star mergers is updated to 250-2810.

1,189 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Aravinthan Varatharaj1, Aravinthan Varatharaj2, Naomi Thomas3, Mark Ellul4, Mark Ellul5, Mark Ellul6, Nicholas W. S. Davies, Thomas A Pollak7, Elizabeth L Tenorio8, Mustafa Sultan3, Ava Easton5, Gerome Breen7, Michael S. Zandi9, Jonathan P. Coles10, Hadi Manji9, Rustam Al-Shahi Salman11, David K. Menon10, Timothy R Nicholson7, Laura A Benjamin5, Laura A Benjamin9, Alan Carson11, Craig J. Smith12, Martin R Turner13, Tom Solomon6, Tom Solomon5, Tom Solomon4, Rachel Kneen6, Rachel Kneen5, Sarah Pett14, Ian Galea2, Ian Galea1, Rhys H. Thomas15, Rhys H. Thomas3, Benedict D Michael6, Benedict D Michael4, Benedict D Michael5, Claire Allen, Neil Archibald, James Arkell, Peter Arthur-Farraj, Mark R. Baker, Harriet A. Ball, Verity Bradley-Barker, Zoe Brown, Stefania Bruno, Lois Carey, Christopher Carswell, Annie Chakrabarti, James Choulerton, Mazen Daher, Ruth Davies, Rafael Di Marco Barros, Sofia Dima, Rachel Dunley, Dipankar Dutta, Richard James Booth Ellis, Alex Everitt, Joseph Fady, Patricia Fearon, Leonora Fisniku, Ivie Gbinigie, Alan Gemski, Emma Gillies, Effrossyni Gkrania-Klotsas, Julie Grigg, Hisham Hamdalla, Jack Hubbett, Neil Hunter, Anne-Catherine Huys, Ihmoda Ihmoda, Sissi Ispoglou, Ashwani Jha, Ramzi Joussi, Dheeraj Kalladka, Hind Khalifeh, Sander Kooij, Guru Kumar, Sandar Kyaw, Lucia Li, Edward Littleton, Malcolm R. Macleod, Mary Joan MacLeod, Barbara Madigan, Vikram Mahadasa, Manonmani Manoharan, Richard Marigold, Isaac Marks, Paul M. Matthews, Michael Mccormick, Caroline Mcinnes, Antonio Metastasio, Philip Milburn-McNulty, Clinton Mitchell, Duncan Mitchell, Clare Morgans, Huw R. Morris, Jasper M. Morrow, Ahmed Mubarak Mohamed, Paula Mulvenna, Louis Murphy, Robert Namushi, Edward J Newman, Wendy Phillips, Ashwin Pinto, David A Price, Harald Proschel, Terry Quinn, Deborah Ramsey, Christine Roffe, Amy L Ross Russell, Neshika Samarasekera, Stephen Sawcer, Walee Sayed, Lakshmanan Sekaran, Jordi Serra-Mestres, Victoria K. Snowdon, Gayle Strike, James Sun, Christina Tang, Mark Vrana, Ryckie G. Wade, Chris Wharton, Lou Wiblin, Iryna Boubriak, Katie Herman, Gordon T. Plant 
TL;DR: This is the first nationwide, cross-specialty surveillance study of acute neurological and psychiatric complications of COVID-19 and provides valuable and timely data that are urgently needed by clinicians, researchers, and funders.

990 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The specific objectives of this report were to assess the safety and humoral and cellular immunogenicity of a single-dose and two-dose schedule in adults older than 55 years, and safety, as measured by the occurrence of serious adverse events.

986 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The ARRIVE guidelines are revised to update them and facilitate their use in practice and this explanation and elaboration document was developed as part of the revision.
Abstract: Improving the reproducibility of biomedical research is a major challenge. Transparent and accurate reporting is vital to this process; it allows readers to assess the reliability of the findings and repeat or build upon the work of other researchers. The ARRIVE guidelines (Animal Research: Reporting In Vivo Experiments) were developed in 2010 to help authors and journals identify the minimum information necessary to report in publications describing in vivo experiments. Despite widespread endorsement by the scientific community, the impact of ARRIVE on the transparency of reporting in animal research publications has been limited. We have revised the ARRIVE guidelines to update them and facilitate their use in practice. The revised guidelines are published alongside this paper. This explanation and elaboration document was developed as part of the revision. It provides further information about each of the 21 items in ARRIVE 2.0, including the rationale and supporting evidence for their inclusion in the guidelines, elaboration of details to report, and examples of good reporting from the published literature. This document also covers advice and best practice in the design and conduct of animal studies to support researchers in improving standards from the start of the experimental design process through to publication.

Journal ArticleDOI
Richard J. Abbott1, T. D. Abbott2, Sheelu Abraham3, Fausto Acernese4  +1334 moreInstitutions (150)
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reported the observation of a compact binary coalescence involving a 222 −243 M ⊙ black hole and a compact object with a mass of 250 −267 M ⋆ (all measurements quoted at the 90% credible level) The gravitational-wave signal, GW190814, was observed during LIGO's and Virgo's third observing run on 2019 August 14 at 21:10:39 UTC and has a signal-to-noise ratio of 25 in the three-detector network.
Abstract: We report the observation of a compact binary coalescence involving a 222–243 M ⊙ black hole and a compact object with a mass of 250–267 M ⊙ (all measurements quoted at the 90% credible level) The gravitational-wave signal, GW190814, was observed during LIGO's and Virgo's third observing run on 2019 August 14 at 21:10:39 UTC and has a signal-to-noise ratio of 25 in the three-detector network The source was localized to 185 deg2 at a distance of ${241}_{-45}^{+41}$ Mpc; no electromagnetic counterpart has been confirmed to date The source has the most unequal mass ratio yet measured with gravitational waves, ${0112}_{-0009}^{+0008}$, and its secondary component is either the lightest black hole or the heaviest neutron star ever discovered in a double compact-object system The dimensionless spin of the primary black hole is tightly constrained to ≤007 Tests of general relativity reveal no measurable deviations from the theory, and its prediction of higher-multipole emission is confirmed at high confidence We estimate a merger rate density of 1–23 Gpc−3 yr−1 for the new class of binary coalescence sources that GW190814 represents Astrophysical models predict that binaries with mass ratios similar to this event can form through several channels, but are unlikely to have formed in globular clusters However, the combination of mass ratio, component masses, and the inferred merger rate for this event challenges all current models of the formation and mass distribution of compact-object binaries

Journal ArticleDOI
04 May 2020-Nature
TL;DR: A model of the effects of different non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in China suggests that a strategy involving the rapid implementation of a combination of interventions is most effective.
Abstract: On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic1. The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings3. Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement4,5, we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776–164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44–94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world. A model of the effects of different non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in China suggests that a strategy involving the rapid implementation of a combination of interventions is most effective.

Journal ArticleDOI
R. Abbott1, T. D. Abbott2, Sheelu Abraham3, Fausto Acernese4  +1332 moreInstitutions (150)
TL;DR: It is inferred that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65 M⊙, which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH).
Abstract: On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 85_{-14}^{+21} M_{⊙} and 66_{-18}^{+17} M_{⊙} (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65 M_{⊙}. We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 142_{-16}^{+28} M_{⊙}, which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3_{-2.6}^{+2.4} Gpc, corresponding to a redshift of 0.82_{-0.34}^{+0.28}. The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13_{-0.11}^{+0.30} Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper proposes to invoke an IRS at the cell boundary of multiple cells to assist the downlink transmission to cell-edge users, whilst mitigating the inter-cell interference, which is a crucial issue in multicell communication systems.
Abstract: Intelligent reflecting surfaces (IRSs) constitute a disruptive wireless communication technique capable of creating a controllable propagation environment. In this paper, we propose to invoke an IRS at the cell boundary of multiple cells to assist the downlink transmission to cell-edge users, whilst mitigating the inter-cell interference, which is a crucial issue in multicell communication systems. We aim for maximizing the weighted sum rate (WSR) of all users through jointly optimizing the active precoding matrices at the base stations (BSs) and the phase shifts at the IRS subject to each BS’s power constraint and unit modulus constraint. Both the BSs and the users are equipped with multiple antennas, which enhances the spectral efficiency by exploiting the spatial multiplexing gain. Due to the non-convexity of the problem, we first reformulate it into an equivalent one, which is solved by using the block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm, where the precoding matrices and phase shifts are alternately optimized. The optimal precoding matrices can be obtained in closed form, when fixing the phase shifts. A pair of efficient algorithms are proposed for solving the phase shift optimization problem, namely the Majorization-Minimization (MM) Algorithm and the Complex Circle Manifold (CCM) Method. Both algorithms are guaranteed to converge to at least locally optimal solutions. We also extend the proposed algorithms to the more general multiple-IRS and network MIMO scenarios. Finally, our simulation results confirm the advantages of introducing IRSs in enhancing the cell-edge user performance.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A novel scheme for joint target search and communication channel estimation, which relies on omni-directional pilot signals generated by the HAD structure, is proposed, which is possible to recover the target echoes and mitigate the resulting interference to the UE signals, even when the radar and communication signals share the same signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).
Abstract: Sharing of the frequency bands between radar and communication systems has attracted substantial attention, as it can avoid under-utilization of otherwise permanently allocated spectral resources, thus improving efficiency. Further, there is increasing demand for radar and communication systems that share the hardware platform as well as the frequency band, as this not only decongests the spectrum, but also benefits both sensing and signaling operations via the full cooperation between both functionalities. Nevertheless, the success of spectrum and hardware sharing between radar and communication systems critically depends on high-quality joint radar and communication designs. In the first part of this paper, we overview the research progress in the areas of radar-communication coexistence and dual-functional radar-communication (DFRC) systems, with particular emphasis on application scenarios and technical approaches. In the second part, we propose a novel transceiver architecture and frame structure for a DFRC base station (BS) operating in the millimeter wave (mmWave) band, using the hybrid analog-digital (HAD) beamforming technique. We assume that the BS is serving a multi-antenna user equipment (UE) over a mmWave channel, and at the same time it actively detects targets. The targets also play the role of scatterers for the communication signal. In that framework, we propose a novel scheme for joint target search and communication channel estimation, which relies on omni-directional pilot signals generated by the HAD structure. Given a fully-digital communication precoder and a desired radar transmit beampattern, we propose to design the analog and digital precoders under non-convex constant-modulus (CM) and power constraints, such that the BS can formulate narrow beams towards all the targets, while pre-equalizing the impact of the communication channel. Furthermore, we design a HAD receiver that can simultaneously process signals from the UE and echo waves from the targets. By tracking the angular variation of the targets, we show that it is possible to recover the target echoes and mitigate the resulting interference to the UE signals, even when the radar and communication signals share the same signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The feasibility and efficiency of the proposed approaches in realizing DFRC are verified via numerical simulations. Finally, the paper concludes with an overview of the open problems in the research field of communication and radar spectrum sharing (CRSS).

Journal ArticleDOI
T. Aoyama1, Nils Asmussen2, M. Benayoun3, Johan Bijnens4  +146 moreInstitutions (64)
TL;DR: The current status of the Standard Model calculation of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon is reviewed in this paper, where the authors present a detailed account of recent efforts to improve the calculation of these two contributions with either a data-driven, dispersive approach, or a first-principle, lattice approach.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the connectedness between the recent spread of COVID-19, oil price volatility shock, the stock market, geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the US within a time-frequency framework.


Journal ArticleDOI
29 Oct 2020-Cell
TL;DR: Overall, these characterizations have revealed the architecture of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in exceptional detail, and shed lights on how the virus packs its ∼30 kb long single-segmented RNA in the ∼80 nm diameter lumen.

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TL;DR: In this article, a review of lattice results related to pion, kaon, D-meson, neutral kaon mixing, B-meon, and nucleon physics with the aim of making them easily accessible to the nuclear and particle physics communities is presented.
Abstract: We review lattice results related to pion, kaon, D-meson, B-meson, and nucleon physics with the aim of making them easily accessible to the nuclear and particle physics communities. More specifically, we report on the determination of the light-quark masses, the form factor $f_+(0)$ arising in the semileptonic $K \rightarrow \pi $ transition at zero momentum transfer, as well as the decay constant ratio $f_K/f_\pi $ and its consequences for the CKM matrix elements $V_{us}$ and $V_{ud}$. Furthermore, we describe the results obtained on the lattice for some of the low-energy constants of $SU(2)_L\times SU(2)_R$ and $SU(3)_L\times SU(3)_R$ Chiral Perturbation Theory. We review the determination of the $B_K$ parameter of neutral kaon mixing as well as the additional four B parameters that arise in theories of physics beyond the Standard Model. For the heavy-quark sector, we provide results for $m_c$ and $m_b$ as well as those for D- and B-meson decay constants, form factors, and mixing parameters. These are the heavy-quark quantities most relevant for the determination of CKM matrix elements and the global CKM unitarity-triangle fit. We review the status of lattice determinations of the strong coupling constant $\alpha _s$. Finally, in this review we have added a new section reviewing results for nucleon matrix elements of the axial, scalar and tensor bilinears, both isovector and flavor diagonal.

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TL;DR: In this paper, the role of nutrition plays in supporting the immune system is well-established, and a wealth of mechanistic and clinical data show that vitamins, including vitamins A, B6, B12, C, D, E, and folate, trace elements, including zinc, iron, selenium, magnesium, and copper, play important and complementary roles in supporting immune system.
Abstract: Public health practices including handwashing and vaccinations help reduce the spread and impact of infections. Nevertheless, the global burden of infection is high, and additional measures are necessary. Acute respiratory tract infections, for example, were responsible for approximately 2.38 million deaths worldwide in 2016. The role nutrition plays in supporting the immune system is well-established. A wealth of mechanistic and clinical data show that vitamins, including vitamins A, B6, B12, C, D, E, and folate; trace elements, including zinc, iron, selenium, magnesium, and copper; and the omega-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid play important and complementary roles in supporting the immune system. Inadequate intake and status of these nutrients are widespread, leading to a decrease in resistance to infections and as a consequence an increase in disease burden. Against this background the following conclusions are made: (1) supplementation with the above micronutrients and omega-3 fatty acids is a safe, effective, and low-cost strategy to help support optimal immune function; (2) supplementation above the Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA), but within recommended upper safety limits, for specific nutrients such as vitamins C and D is warranted; and (3) public health officials are encouraged to include nutritional strategies in their recommendations to improve public health.

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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a new type of high-gain yet low-cost RIS that bears 256 elements, where positive intrinsic negative (PIN) diodes are used to realize 2-bit phase shifting for beamforming.
Abstract: One of the key enablers of future wireless communications is constituted by massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems, which can improve the spectral efficiency by orders of magnitude. In existing massive MIMO systems, however, conventional phased arrays are used for beamforming. This method results in excessive power consumption and high hardware costs. Recently, reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS) has been considered as one of the revolutionary technologies to enable energy-efficient and smart wireless communications, which is a two-dimensional structure with a large number of passive elements. In this paper, we develop a new type of high-gain yet low-cost RIS that bears 256 elements. The proposed RIS combines the functions of phase shift and radiation together on an electromagnetic surface, where positive intrinsic-negative (PIN) diodes are used to realize 2-bit phase shifting for beamforming. This radical design forms the basis for the world's first wireless communication prototype using RIS having 256 two-bit elements. The prototype consists of modular hardware and flexible software that encompass the following: the hosts for parameter setting and data exchange, the universal software radio peripherals (USRPs) for baseband and radio frequency (RF) signal processing, as well as the RIS for signal transmission and reception. Our performance evaluation confirms the feasibility and efficiency of RISs in wireless communications. We show that, at 2.3 GHz, the proposed RIS can achieve a 21.7 dBi antenna gain. At the millimeter wave (mmWave) frequency, that is, 28.5 GHz, it attains a 19.1 dBi antenna gain. Furthermore, it has been shown that the RIS-based wireless communication prototype developed is capable of significantly reducing the power consumption.

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Richard J. Abbott1, T. D. Abbott2, Sheelu Abraham3, Fausto Acernese4  +1330 moreInstitutions (149)
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reported the observation of gravitational waves from a binary-black-hole coalescence during the first two weeks of LIGO and Virgo's third observing run.
Abstract: We report the observation of gravitational waves from a binary-black-hole coalescence during the first two weeks of LIGO’s and Virgo’s third observing run. The signal was recorded on April 12, 2019 at 05∶30∶44 UTC with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 19. The binary is different from observations during the first two observing runs most notably due to its asymmetric masses: a ∼30 M⊙ black hole merged with a ∼8 M⊙ black hole companion. The more massive black hole rotated with a dimensionless spin magnitude between 0.22 and 0.60 (90% probability). Asymmetric systems are predicted to emit gravitational waves with stronger contributions from higher multipoles, and indeed we find strong evidence for gravitational radiation beyond the leading quadrupolar order in the observed signal. A suite of tests performed on GW190412 indicates consistency with Einstein’s general theory of relativity. While the mass ratio of this system differs from all previous detections, we show that it is consistent with the population model of stellar binary black holes inferred from the first two observing runs.


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TL;DR: This study compared adult patients with cancer enrolled in the UK Coronavirus Cancer Monitoring Project between March 18 and May 8, 2020 with a parallel non-COVID-19 UK cancer control population, and analyzed the effect of primary tumour subtype, age, and sex and on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 prevalence and the case–fatality rate during hospital admission.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer are purported to have poor COVID-19 outcomes. However, cancer is a heterogeneous group of diseases, encompassing a spectrum of tumour subtypes. The aim of this study was to investigate COVID-19 risk according to tumour subtype and patient demographics in patients with cancer in the UK. METHODS: We compared adult patients with cancer enrolled in the UK Coronavirus Cancer Monitoring Project (UKCCMP) cohort between March 18 and May 8, 2020, with a parallel non-COVID-19 UK cancer control population from the UK Office for National Statistics (2017 data). The primary outcome of the study was the effect of primary tumour subtype, age, and sex and on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prevalence and the case-fatality rate during hospital admission. We analysed the effect of tumour subtype and patient demographics (age and sex) on prevalence and mortality from COVID-19 using univariable and multivariable models. FINDINGS: 319 (30·6%) of 1044 patients in the UKCCMP cohort died, 295 (92·5%) of whom had a cause of death recorded as due to COVID-19. The all-cause case-fatality rate in patients with cancer after SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly associated with increasing age, rising from 0·10 in patients aged 40-49 years to 0·48 in those aged 80 years and older. Patients with haematological malignancies (leukaemia, lymphoma, and myeloma) had a more severe COVID-19 trajectory compared with patients with solid organ tumours (odds ratio [OR] 1·57, 95% CI 1·15-2·15; p<0·0043). Compared with the rest of the UKCCMP cohort, patients with leukaemia showed a significantly increased case-fatality rate (2·25, 1·13-4·57; p=0·023). After correction for age and sex, patients with haematological malignancies who had recent chemotherapy had an increased risk of death during COVID-19-associated hospital admission (OR 2·09, 95% CI 1·09-4·08; p=0·028). INTERPRETATION: Patients with cancer with different tumour types have differing susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 phenotypes. We generated individualised risk tables for patients with cancer, considering age, sex, and tumour subtype. Our results could be useful to assist physicians in informed risk-benefit discussions to explain COVID-19 risk and enable an evidenced-based approach to national social isolation policies. FUNDING: University of Birmingham and University of Oxford.


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TL;DR: It is demonstrated that non-pharmaceutical interventions significantly increase equity market volatility.

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T. Aoyama1, Nils Asmussen2, M. Benayoun3, Johan Bijnens4  +146 moreInstitutions (64)
TL;DR: The current status of the Standard Model calculation of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon has been reviewed in this paper, where the authors present a detailed account of recent efforts to improve the calculation of these two contributions with either a data-driven, dispersive approach, or a first-principle, lattice-QCD approach.
Abstract: We review the present status of the Standard Model calculation of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. This is performed in a perturbative expansion in the fine-structure constant $\alpha$ and is broken down into pure QED, electroweak, and hadronic contributions. The pure QED contribution is by far the largest and has been evaluated up to and including $\mathcal{O}(\alpha^5)$ with negligible numerical uncertainty. The electroweak contribution is suppressed by $(m_\mu/M_W)^2$ and only shows up at the level of the seventh significant digit. It has been evaluated up to two loops and is known to better than one percent. Hadronic contributions are the most difficult to calculate and are responsible for almost all of the theoretical uncertainty. The leading hadronic contribution appears at $\mathcal{O}(\alpha^2)$ and is due to hadronic vacuum polarization, whereas at $\mathcal{O}(\alpha^3)$ the hadronic light-by-light scattering contribution appears. Given the low characteristic scale of this observable, these contributions have to be calculated with nonperturbative methods, in particular, dispersion relations and the lattice approach to QCD. The largest part of this review is dedicated to a detailed account of recent efforts to improve the calculation of these two contributions with either a data-driven, dispersive approach, or a first-principle, lattice-QCD approach. The final result reads $a_\mu^\text{SM}=116\,591\,810(43)\times 10^{-11}$ and is smaller than the Brookhaven measurement by 3.7$\sigma$. The experimental uncertainty will soon be reduced by up to a factor four by the new experiment currently running at Fermilab, and also by the future J-PARC experiment. This and the prospects to further reduce the theoretical uncertainty in the near future-which are also discussed here-make this quantity one of the most promising places to look for evidence of new physics.

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TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the thirty-year history of ML by elaborating on supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning and deep learning and investigate their employment in the compelling applications of wireless networks, including heterogeneous networks, cognitive radios (CR), Internet of Things (IoT), machine to machine networks (M2M), and so on.
Abstract: Future wireless networks have a substantial potential in terms of supporting a broad range of complex compelling applications both in military and civilian fields, where the users are able to enjoy high-rate, low-latency, low-cost and reliable information services. Achieving this ambitious goal requires new radio techniques for adaptive learning and intelligent decision making because of the complex heterogeneous nature of the network structures and wireless services. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have great success in supporting big data analytics, efficient parameter estimation and interactive decision making. Hence, in this article, we review the thirty-year history of ML by elaborating on supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning and deep learning. Furthermore, we investigate their employment in the compelling applications of wireless networks, including heterogeneous networks (HetNets), cognitive radios (CR), Internet of Things (IoT), machine to machine networks (M2M), and so on. This article aims for assisting the readers in clarifying the motivation and methodology of the various ML algorithms, so as to invoke them for hitherto unexplored services as well as scenarios of future wireless networks.