A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era
Julien Emile-Geay,Nicholas P. McKay,Darrell S. Kaufman,Lucien von Gunten,Jianghao Wang,Kevin J. Anchukaitis,Nerilie J. Abram,Jason A. Addison,Mark A. J. Curran,Mark A. J. Curran,Michael N. Evans,Benjamin J. Henley,Zhixin Hao,Belen Martrat,Belen Martrat,Helen McGregor,Raphael Neukom,Gregory T. Pederson,Barbara Stenni,Kaustubh Thirumalai,Johannes P. Werner,Chenxi Xu,Dmitry Divine,Bronwyn C. Dixon,Joelle Gergis,Ignacio A. Mundo,Takeshi Nakatsuka,Steven J. Phipps,Cody C. Routson,Eric J. Steig,Jessica E. Tierney,Jonathan J. Tyler,Kathryn Allen,Nancy A. N. Bertler,Jesper Björklund,Brian M. Chase,Min Te Chen,Edward R. Cook,Rixt de Jong,Kristine L. DeLong,Daniel A. Dixon,Alexey A. Ekaykin,Alexey A. Ekaykin,Vasile Ersek,Helena L. Filipsson,Pierre Francus,Mandy Freund,Massimo Frezzotti,Narayan Prasad Gaire,Narayan Prasad Gaire,Konrad Gajewski,Quansheng Ge,Hugues Goosse,Anastasia Gornostaeva,Martin Grosjean,Kazuho Horiuchi,Anne Hormes,Katrine Husum,Elisabeth Isaksson,Selvaraj Kandasamy,Kenji Kawamura,Kenji Kawamura,K. Halimeda Kilbourne,Nalan Koc,Guillaume Leduc,Hans W. Linderholm,Andrew Lorrey,Vladimir Mikhalenko,P. Graham Mortyn,Hideaki Motoyama,Andrew D. Moy,Andrew D. Moy,Robert Mulvaney,Philipp Munz,David J. Nash,David J. Nash,Hans Oerter,Thomas Opel,Anais Orsi,Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov,Trevor J. Porter,Heidi A. Roop,Casey Saenger,Masaki Sano,David J. Sauchyn,Krystyna M. Saunders,Krystyna M. Saunders,Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz,Mirko Severi,Xuemei Shao,Marie-Alexandrine Sicre,Michael Sigl,Kate E. Sinclair,Scott St. George,Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques,Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques,Meloth Thamban,Udya Kuwar Thapa,Elizabeth R. Thomas,Chris S. M. Turney,Ryu Uemura,A. E. Viau,Diana Vladimirova,Diana Vladimirova,Eugene R. Wahl,James W. C. White,Zicheng Yu,Jens Zinke,Jens Zinke +108 more
TLDR
A community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative, suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.Abstract:
Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era
TL;DR: No evidence for preindustrial globally coherent cold and warm epochs is found, indicating that preindustrial forcing was not sufficient to produce globally synchronous extreme temperatures at multidecadal and centennial timescales, and provides strong evidence that anthropogenic global warming is not only unparalleled in terms of absolute temperatures, but also unprecedented in spatial consistency within the context of the past 2,000 years.
Journal ArticleDOI
Consistent multi-decadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.
Raphael Neukom,Luis A. Barboza,M. P. Erb,Feng Shi,Julien Emile-Geay,Michael N. Evans,Jörg Franke,Darrell S. Kaufman,Lucie J. Lücke,Kira Rehfeld,Andrew Schurer,Feng Zhu,Stefan Brönnimann,Gregory J. Hakim,Benjamin J. Henley,Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist,Nicholas P. McKay,Veronika Valler,Lucien von Gunten +18 more
TL;DR: Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales.
Journal ArticleDOI
Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach
Darrell S. Kaufman,Nicholas P. McKay,Cody C. Routson,M. P. Erb,Christoph Dätwyler,Philipp Sommer,Oliver Heiri,Basil A. S. Davis +7 more
TL;DR: Five different statistical methods were applied to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene) and the results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties.
Journal ArticleDOI
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
Hubertus Fischer,Hubertus Fischer,Katrin J. Meissner,Alan C. Mix,Nerilie J. Abram,Jacqueline Austermann,Victor Brovkin,Emilie Capron,Emilie Capron,Daniele Colombaroli,Anne-Laure Daniau,Kelsey A. Dyez,Thomas Felis,Sarah A. Finkelstein,Samuel L Jaccard,Samuel L Jaccard,Erin L McClymont,Alessio Rovere,Alessio Rovere,Johannes Sutter,Eric W. Wolff,Stéphane Affolter,Stéphane Affolter,Pepijn Johannes Bakker,Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas,Carlo Barbante,Thibaut Caley,Anders E. Carlson,Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova),Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova),Giuseppe Cortese,Brian F. Cumming,Basil A. S. Davis,Anne de Vernal,Julien Emile-Geay,Sherilyn C. Fritz,Paul Gierz,Julia Gottschalk,Julia Gottschalk,Max D. Holloway,Fortunat Joos,Fortunat Joos,Michal Kucera,Marie-France Loutre,Daniel J. Lunt,Katarzyna Marcisz,Katarzyna Marcisz,Katarzyna Marcisz,Jennifer R. Marlon,Philippe Martinez,Valérie Masson-Delmotte,Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles,Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles,Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Christoph C. Raible,Christoph C. Raible,Bjørg Risebrobakken,Maria Fernanda Sanchez Goñi,Maria Fernanda Sanchez Goñi,Jennifer Saleem Arrigo,Michael Sarnthein,Jesper Sjolte,Thomas F. Stocker,Thomas F. Stocker,Patricio A. Velasquez Alvárez,Patricio A. Velasquez Alvárez,Willy Tinner,Willy Tinner,Paul J. Valdes,Hendrik Vogel,Hendrik Vogel,Heinz Wanner,Qing Yan,Zicheng Yu,Zicheng Yu,Martin Ziegler,Martin Ziegler,Liping Zhou +77 more
TL;DR: In this article, an observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C.
Journal ArticleDOI
Mid-latitude net precipitation decreased with Arctic warming during the Holocene.
Cody C. Routson,Nicholas P. McKay,Darrell S. Kaufman,M. P. Erb,Hugues Goosse,Bryan N. Shuman,J. R. Rodysill,Toby R. Ault +7 more
TL;DR: It is shown that a weaker latitudinal temperature gradient—that is, warming of the Arctic with respect to the Equator—during the early to middle part of the Holocene coincided with substantial decreases in mid-latitude net precipitation, consistent with the hypothesis that a weakened temperature gradient led to weaker mid-Latitude westerly flow, weaker cyclones and decreased net terrestrial mid- latitude precipitation.
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