Showing papers on "Monsoon published in 2019"

Past East Asian monsoon evolution controlled by paleogeography, not CO2

Abstract: The East Asian monsoon plays an integral role in human society, yet its geological history and controlling processes are poorly understood. Using a general circulation model and geological data, we explore the drivers controlling the evolution of the monsoon system over the past 150 million years. In contrast to previous work, we find that the monsoon is controlled primarily by changes in paleogeography, with little influence from atmospheric CO2. We associate increased precipitation since the Late Cretaceous with the gradual uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan region, transitioning from an ITCZ-dominated monsoon to a sea breeze–dominated monsoon. The rising region acted as a mechanical barrier to cold and dry continental air advecting into the region, leading to increasing influence of moist air from the Indian Ocean/South China Sea. We show that, apart from a dry period in the middle Cretaceous, a monsoon system has existed in East Asia since at least the Early Cretaceous.

What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather

Abstract: Understanding the predictability limit of day-to-day weather phenomena such as midlatitude winter storms and summer monsoonal rainstorms is crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP). Th...

Indian summer monsoon: Extreme events, historical changes, and role of anthropogenic forcings

Abstract: The South Asian summer monsoon is a complex coupled human‐natural system that poses unique challenges for understanding its evolution alongside increasing anthropogenic activities. Rapid and substantial changes in land‐use, land‐management and industrial activities over the subcontinent, and warming in the Indian Ocean, have influenced the South Asian summer monsoon. These might continue to be significant drivers in the near‐term along with rising global greenhouse gas emissions. Deciphering the region's vulnerability to climate change requires an understanding of how these anthropogenic activities, acting on a range of spatial scales, have shaped the monsoon spatially and temporally. This review summarizes historical changes in monsoon rainfall characteristics, associated mechanisms, and the role of anthropogenic forcings, focusing on subseasonal variability and extreme events. Several studies have found intensified subseasonal extremes across parts of India and an increase in spatial variability of rainfall despite an overall weakening of seasonal rainfall in the monsoon core. However, understanding these changes remains challenging because of uncertainties in observations and climate models. The mechanisms and relative influences of various anthropogenic activities, particularly on subseasonal extremes, remain relatively underexplored. Large biases in the representation of relevant processes in global climate models limit the ability to attribute historical changes and make reliable projections. Nevertheless, recent advances in modeling these processes using higher‐resolution modeling frameworks provide new tools to investigate the Indian summer monsoon's response to various anthropogenic forcings. There is an urgent need to understand how these forcings interact to shape climate variability and change in this vulnerable region. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior

Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes

Abstract: Sahel rainfall is dynamically linked to the global Hadley cell and to the regional monsoon circulation. It is therefore susceptible to forcings from remote oceans and regional land alike. Warming of the oceans enhances the stability of the tropical atmosphere and weakens deep ascent in the Hadley circulation. Warming of the Sahara and of the nearby oceans changes the structure and position of the regional shallow circulation and allows more of the intense convective systems that determine seasonal rain accumulation. These processes can explain the observed interannual to multidecadal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies were the dominant forcing of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s. In most recent decades, seasonal rainfall amounts have partially recovered, but rainy season characteristics have changed: rainfall is more intense and intermittent and wetting is concentrated in the late rainy season and away from the west coast. Similar subseasonal and subregional differences in rainfall trends characterize the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. While uncertainty in future projections remains, confidence in them is encouraged by the recognition that seasonal mean rainfall depends on large‐scale drivers of atmospheric circulations that are well resolved by current climate models. Nevertheless, observational and modeling efforts are needed to provide more refined projections of rainfall changes, expanding beyond total accumulation to metrics of intraseasonal characteristics and risk of extreme events, and coordination between climate scientists and stakeholders is needed to generate relevant information that is useful even under deep uncertainty. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

Position and orientation of the westerly jet determined Holocene rainfall patterns in China.

Abstract: Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

Abstract: Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial–interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

Chinese stalagmite paleoclimate researches: A review and perspective

Abstract: Stalagmite is one kind of secondary carbonates formed in limestone caves (speleothem). After cave water droplets containing Ca2+ and $$\rm{HCO}_3^-$$ drip onto floor, carbonate in the water might become supersaturated due to CO2 degassing under certain conditions, resulting in the formation of stalagmite in a process year after year. Stalagmite is one of important geological archives for paleoclimate research. The advantages include wide spatial distribution, suitable for U-Th and U-Pb dating, enriched in climate proxies, continuity, long time span, comparability and lower sampling cost etc. These factors have propelled stalagmite paleoclimate research to the forefront of global paleoclimatology with an irreplaceable role. The stalagmite paleoclimate study started in the western countries, mainly in Europe and America in 1960s–1970s, while the relevant research in China was progressively developed in the 1980s–1990s after the Reform and Opening up. Although there was a huge gap between the overall research level in China and western countries, a solid research foundation, as well as a number of talent teams were established during the period. In the 21st century, starting from the publication of stalagmite records from Hulu Cave in Nanjing in 2001, the stalagmite paleoclimate research in China has ushered in a flourishing development and a real leap on the basis of international cooperation, resulting in significant international impacts. The landmark achievements, including establishment of the world’s longest (640000 years) East Asian monsoon stalagmite record, as well as the longest Indian monsoon (280000 years), South American monsoon (250000 years), North American westerly climate (330000 years), Central Asian westerly climate (135000 years), and northwestern China westerly climate (500000 years), have laid a milestone in the paleoclimate study in these climate domains. Importantly, these stalagmite records have revealed the relationship of Asian monsoon variations with solar insolation climate change in polar regions, and the South American monsoon changes on orbital-suborbital timescales, which have provided new geological observations for the development of orbital-suborbital climate theory; elaborated coupling and differentiation relationships between the Asian monsoon and the westerly climate; reconstructed the history of Asian monsoon changes in the Holocene in detail, and thus the hydrological and climate variances behind Chinese and Indian civilization-cultural evolutions. Furthermore, a large number of high-resolution stalagmite records over the past 2000 years have been reconstructed, which are important for understanding short-term climate variability and magnitude, events, cycles, and thus the future climate projection. The achievements have also involved the improvements of a number of important techniques, such as U-Th dating method, the establishments of various hydroclimatic proxies, as well as the contributions to the reconstruction of the atmosphere 14C variation history over the past ∼54000 years. On the perspective of the future, the Chinese stalagmite community should continue to develop key techniques, further clarify the hydroclimatic significance of stalagmite proxies, impel the integration of related disciplines, and concentrate on key scientific issues in global climate change and major social demands.

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

Abstract: In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998–2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and low-resolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

Monsoon-driven Saharan dust variability over the past 240,000 years.

Abstract: Reconstructions of past Saharan dust deposition in marine sediments provide foundational records of North African climate over time scales of 103 to 106 years. Previous dust records show primarily glacial-interglacial variability in the Pleistocene, in contrast to other monsoon records showing strong precessional variability. Here, we present the first Saharan dust record spanning multiple glacial cycles obtained using 230Th normalization, an improved method of calculating fluxes. Contrary to previous data, our record from the West African margin demonstrates high correlation with summer insolation and limited glacial-interglacial changes, indicating coherent variability in the African monsoon belt throughout the late Pleistocene. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude Saharan dust emissions do not vary synchronously with high- and mid-latitude dust emissions, and they call into question the use of existing Plio-Pleistocene dust records to investigate links between climate and hominid evolution.

Two-step closure of the Miocene Indian Ocean Gateway to the Mediterranean.

Abstract: The Tethys Ocean was compartmentalized into the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean during the early Miocene, yet the exact nature and timing of this disconnection are not well understood. Here we present two new neodymium isotope records from isolated carbonate platforms on both sides of the closing seaway, Malta (outcrop sampling) and the Maldives (IODP Site U1468), to constrain the evolution of past water mass exchange between the present day Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean via the Mesopotamian Seaway. Combining these data with box modeling results indicates that water mass exchange was reduced by ~90% in a first step at ca. 20 Ma. The terminal closure of the seaway then coincided with the sea level drop caused by the onset of permanent glaciation of Antarctica at ca. 13.8 Ma. The termination of meridional water mass exchange through the Tethyan Seaway resulted in a global reorganization of currents, paved the way to the development of upwelling in the Arabian Sea and possibly led to a strengthening of South Asian Monsoon.

Synchronous 500-year oscillations of monsoon climate and human activity in Northeast Asia.

Abstract: Prehistoric human activities were likely influenced by cyclic monsoon climate changes in East Asia. Here we report a decadal-resolution Holocene pollen record from an annually-laminated Maar Lake in Northeast China, a proxy of monsoon climate, together with a compilation of 627 radiocarbon dates from archeological sites in Northeast China which is a proxy of human activity. The results reveal synchronous ~500-year quasi-periodic changes over the last 8000 years. The warm-humid/cold-dry phases of monsoon cycles correspond closely to the intensification/weakening of human activity and the flourishing/decline of prehistoric cultures. Six prosperous phases of prehistoric cultures, with one exception, correspond approximately to warm-humid phases caused by a strengthened monsoon. This ~500-year cyclicity in the monsoon and thus environmental change triggered the development of prehistoric cultures in Northeast China. The cyclicity is apparently linked to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, against the background of long-term Holocene climatic evolution. These findings reveal a pronounced relationship between prehistoric human activity and cyclical climate change.

Moisture Source Changes Contributed to Different Precipitation Changes over the Northern and Southern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract: Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) showed different spatial changes during 1979-2016, with an increasing trend over the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) and a slightly negative trend over the southern Tibetan Plateau (STP). The changes in precipitation moisture sources over the NTP and STP are investigated using the improved Water Accounting Model with an atmospheric reanalysis as well as observational precipitation and evaporation data. The results show the region in the northwest (region NW), ranging from the TP to Europe dominated by the westerlies, provides 38.9% of precipitation moisture for the NTP, and the region in the southeast (region SE), ranging from the TP to the Indian Ocean and Indochina dominated by the Asian monsoons, provides 51.4% of precipitation moisture for the STP. For the precipitation increase over the NTP, the SE and TP are the main contributors, contributing around 35.8% and 51.7% of the increase, respectively. The contributions from the SE and TP to the STP are, however, minor and insignificant. Meanwhile, the NW shows a negative trend of -4.2 ± 2.9mmyr -1 decade -1 (significant at the 0.01 level), which contributes to the negative precipitation trend over the STP. Results during the wet season indicate that moisture sources from the areas dominated by the Asian monsoons have contributed more precipitated moisture for the NTP, but not for the STP. Further analysis reveals that precipitated moisture originating from the Indian subcontinent has increased for the NTP while it has decreased for the STP during 1979-2016.

Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales

Abstract: In spite of the summer monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of an agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts toward improving its prediction and simulat...

Recent Progress in Studies of the Variabilities and Mechanisms of the East Asian Monsoon in a Changing Climate

Abstract: Located in a monsoon domain, East Asia suffers devastating natural hazards induced by anomalous monsoon behaviors. East Asian monsoon (EAM) research has traditionally been a high priority for the Chinese climate community and is particularly challenging in a changing climate where the global mean temperature has been rising. Recent advances in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the EAM are reviewed in this paper, focusing on the interannual to interdecadal time scales. Some new results have been achieved in understanding the behaviors of the EAM, such as the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), including both its onset and withdrawal over the South China Sea, the changes in the northern boundary activity of the EASM, or the transitional climate zone in East Asia, and the cycle of the EASM and the East Asian winter monsoon and their linkages. In addition, understanding of the mechanism of the EAM variability has improved in several aspects, including the impacts of different types of ENSO on the EAM, the impacts from the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean, and the roles of mid- to high-latitude processes. Finally, some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAM are proposed for future investigation.

Altered trends in carbon uptake in China's terrestrial ecosystems under the enhanced summer monsoon and warming hiatus.

Abstract: The carbon budgets in terrestrial ecosystems in China are strongly coupled with climate changes. Over the past decade, China has experienced dramatic climate changes characterized by enhanced summer monsoon and decelerated warming. However, the changes in the trends of terrestrial net ecosystem production (NEP) in China under climate changes are not well documented. Here, we used three ecosystem models to simulate the spatiotemporal variations in China's NEP during 1982-2010 and quantify the contribution of the strengthened summer monsoon and warming hiatus to the NEP variations in four distinct climatic regions of the country. Our results revealed a decadal-scale shift in NEP from a downtrend of -5.95 Tg C/yr2 (reduced sink) during 1982-2000 to an uptrend of 14.22 Tg C/yr2 (enhanced sink) during 2000-10. This shift was essentially induced by the strengthened summer monsoon, which stimulated carbon uptake, and the warming hiatus, which lessened the decrease in the NEP trend. Compared to the contribution of 56.3% by the climate effect, atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition had relatively small contributions (8.6 and 11.3%, respectively) to the shift. In conclusion, within the context of the global-warming hiatus, the strengthening of the summer monsoon is a critical climate factor that enhances carbon uptake in China due to the asymmetric response of photosynthesis and respiration. Our study not only revealed the shift in ecosystem carbon sequestration in China in recent decades, but also provides some insight for understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics in other monsoonal areas.

The relationship between Indian monsoon rainfall and low-pressure systems

Abstract: Indian summer monsoon precipitation is significantly modulated by synoptic-scale tropical low pressure areas (LPAs), the strongest of which are known as monsoon depressions (MDs). Despite their apparent importance, previous studies attempting to constrain the fraction of monsoon precipitation for which such systems are responsible have yielded an unsatisfyingly wide range of estimates. Here, a variant of the DBSCAN algorithm is implemented to identify nontrivial, coherent rainfall structures in TRMM-3B42 precipitation data. Using theoretical considerations and an idealised model, an effective capture radius is computed to be 200 km, providing upper-bound attribution fractions of 57% (17%) for LPAs (MDs) over the monsoon core zone and 44% (12%) over all India. These results are also placed in the context of simpler attribution techniques. A climatology of these clusters suggests that the central Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the region of strongest synoptic organisation. A k-means clustering technique is used to identify four distinct partitions of LPA (and two of MD) track, and their regional contributions to monsoon precipitation are assessed. Most synoptic rainfall over India is attributable to short-lived LPAs originating at the head of the BoB, though longer-lived systems are required to bring rain to west India and east Pakistan. Secondary contributions from systems originating in the Arabian Sea and south BoB are shown to be important for west Pakistan and Sri Lanka respectively. Finally, a database of precipitating-event types is used to show that small-scale deep convection happens independently of MDs, whereas the density of larger-scale convective and stratiform events are sensitive to their presence—justifying the use of a noise-rejecting algorithm.

Significant increases in extreme precipitation and the associations with global warming over the global land monsoon regions

Abstract: The global land monsoon region, with substantial monsoon rainfall and hence freshwater resources, is home to nearly two-thirds of the world’s population. However, it is overwhelmed by extre...

Interannual variations of the rainy season withdrawal of the monsoon transitional zone in China

Abstract: The monsoon transitional zone (MTZ) is the interactional belt between humid and arid regions. This study examines the interannual variation of the MTZ rainy season withdrawal over China. A withdrawal index is firstly defined according to pentad mean precipitation data. The index shows pronounced interannual variations, with a significant dominant period around 2–4 years. When the withdrawal of the MTZ rainy season is later than normal, pronounced precipitation increase appears over the MTZ in August. Meanwhile, a significant anticyclonic anomaly appears over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and a marked atmospheric wave train is seen originating from the North Atlantic and flowing across Eurasia to East Asia. Both the anomalous anticyclone over the WNP and the negative geopotential height anomalies related to the Eurasian wave train around the MTZ contribute to the precipitation increase over the MTZ in August, and lead to the late withdrawal of the MTZ rainy season in China. It is showed that preceding winter El Nino-like events have a contribution to the generation of anticyclonic anomalies over the WNP. In addition, the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) warming, which is independent of the preceding winter El Nino, is found to play a crucial role in the formation of the WNP anticyclone and the Eurasian atmospheric wave train. The importance of the NTA SST anomalies on the MTZ rainy season withdrawal is also confirmed by a set of atmospheric general circulation model experiments.

Contrasting trends in southwest monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats region of India

Abstract: This study presents the contrasting trends of rainfall in the northern and southern Western Ghats (WG) and examines possible reasons for the phenomenon. The WG is one of the important mountain ranges that run parallel to the west coast of India. The mountain chain lies almost perpendicular to the low level jet stream (LLJ) and hence, receives about three times the average rainfall in India. The onset of southwest monsoon also occurs at this region, and thus WG plays a key role in regulating Indian climate through regional climate modulations. Therefore, detecting changes in the rainfall in WG is necessary to identify changes in regional climate. Here, we examine the features of rainfall received and reasons for the observed rainfall patterns in the northern and southern WG. In general, the rainfall peaks are observed in low elevated areas with high inter-annual variability. We find an increase (decrease) southwest monsoon rainfall of about 1.6 mm day−1 decade−1 in certain pockets of the northern (southern) WG. However, an average trend of + 0.3 (− 0.39) mm day−1 decade−1 is estimated in the northern (southern) WG for the 1931–2015 period. Our analyses reveal that this contrasting trend in rainfall (i.e. positive in the north and negative in the south WG) is due to the northward movement of LLJ; from 10°N to 15°N. This shift in LLJ is triggered by an abnormal increase in the surface temperature of the northern Arabian Sea and tropospheric temperature of the north India in the recent decades. The warming helped the LLJ core to move northwards and that weakened (strengthened) the westerly winds over the southern (northern) WG to significantly change the pattern of southwest monsoon rainfall. Henceforth, this study cautions the changes in the rainfall pattern over WG, which can have significant long-term implications for regional climate change.

The Eurasian Jet Streams as Conduits for East Asian Monsoon Variability

Abstract: This article gives a brief review on how the jet streams over the Eurasian continent influence the East Asian monsoon on intraseasonal to interdecadal time scales and discusses the seasonal predictability and change. The wave train along the Eurasian jet streams is found to be crucial for East Asian monsoon variability. Interaction of the upper-level Rossby wave train with the Siberian High causes changes in winter monsoon climate over East Asia. In the case of summer, the Silk Road pattern, embedded in the Asian jet in association with western North Pacific circulation and the Pacific-Japan pattern, alters the strength and phase of the monsoon. Current coupled models showed limited skills in seasonal prediction of the Eurasian jet variations and their influences on the East Asian monsoon variability. The Eurasian jets as conduits for East Asian monsoon variability involve multiple feedbacks. Its interaction with low-level circulation mostly determines the degree of strength of variations in the monsoon climate. Global warming projections based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in the CMIP5 (the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models indicate that the mean Asian jet strengthens in future during winter, but no change is reported during summer.

Madden–Julian Oscillation impacts on South American summer monsoon season: precipitation anomalies, extreme events, teleconnections, and role in the MJO cycle

Abstract: The impacts of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the South American monsoon season are analyzed in the global context of the MJO propagating anomalies of convection and circulation. Unexplored aspects, such as the continental-scale daily precipitation anomalies in the MJO frequency band and changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, are disclosed throughout its cycle. Among other effects, the MJO increases the average daily precipitation by more than 30% of the climatological value and doubles the frequency of extreme events over central-east South America (SA), including the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The evolution of the most intense precipitation anomalies depends on the interplay between tropics–tropics and tropics–extratropics teleconnections, and the topography over central-east SA seems to play a role in enhancing low-level convergence. The maximum anomalies are produced by a tropics-extratropics wave train. It not only favors precipitation anomalies over the SACZ and subtropical SA, but also strengthens the anomalies over tropical SA when the system propagates northeastward. Influence function analysis and simulations of the responses to different components of upper-level anomalous divergence associated with the MJO anomalous convection indicate the probable origin of the anomalous circulation leading to the main precipitation anomalies over SA. It is triggered by secondary anomalous convection, while the main tropical anomalous circulation is produced by the strongest equatorial convection anomalies. There are indications that MJO-related anomalies over SA contribute to the impacts on other regions and to the initiation of the MJO in the Indian Ocean.

Asian monsoon rainfall variation during the Pliocene forced by global temperature change.

Abstract: The Asian monsoon variations under global temperature changes during the Pliocene are still debated. Here we use a sedimentary record of phytoliths (plant silica) from the Weihe Basin, central China, to explore the history of C4 grasses and quantitatively reconstruct the Asian monsoon climate since the late Miocene. Our results show that C4 grasses have been a dominant grassland component since ~11.0 Ma. A subsequent marked decrease in warm- and humid-adapted C4 grasses and an increase in cool- and dry-adapted C3 grasses occurred in the Pliocene, ~4.0 Ma; the phytolith-based quantitative reconstruction of mean annual precipitation marked a decrease from 800~1673 mm to 443~900 mm, indicating a reduction in Asian monsoon rainfall in the Pliocene. Our newly obtained records conflict with the hypothesis that the growth of the Tibetan Plateau strengthened the Asian monsoon rainfall. Nevertheless, they emphasize the importance of global temperature as a determinant of Pliocene Asian monsoon variations. Asian summer monsoons and their links to global temperature changes have been the subject of intense debate. Here the authors reconstruct the Asian monsoon climate since the late Miocene, using plant silica records of C4 and C3 grasses in central China, and find that global cooling caused Asian monsoon rainfall to decrease markedly in the late Pliocene.

Lagrangian simulations of the transport of young air masses to the top of the Asian monsoon anticyclone and into the tropical pipe

Abstract: . We have performed backward trajectory calculations and simulations with the three-dimensional Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for two succeeding monsoon seasons using artificial tracers of air mass origin. With these tracers we trace back the origin of young air masses (age months) at the top of the Asian monsoon anticyclone and of air masses within the tropical pipe (6 months age months) during summer 2008. The occurrence of young air masses ( months) at the top of the Asian monsoon anticyclone up to ∼460 K is in agreement with satellite measurements of chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument. HCFC-22 can be considered as a regional tracer for continental eastern Asia and the Middle East as it is mainly emitted in this region. Our findings show that the transport of air masses from boundary layer sources in the region of the Asian monsoon into the tropical pipe occurs in three distinct steps. First, very fast uplift in “a convective range” transports air masses up to 360 K potential temperature within a few days. Second, air masses are uplifted from about 360 K up to 460 K within “an upward spiralling range” within a few months. The large-scale upward spiral extends from northern Africa to the western Pacific. The air masses are transported upwards by diabatic heating with a rate of up to 1–1.5 K per day, implying strong vertical transport above the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Third, transport of air masses occurs within the tropical pipe up to 550 K associated with the large-scale Brewer–Dobson circulation within ∼1 year. In the upward spiralling range, air masses are uplifted by diabatic heating across the (lapse rate) tropopause, which does not act as a transport barrier, in contrast to the extratropical tropopause. Further, in the upward spiralling range air masses from inside the Asian monsoon anticyclone are mixed with air masses convectively uplifted outside the core of the Asian monsoon anticyclone in the tropical adjacent regions. Moreover, the vertical transport of air masses from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the tropical pipe is weak in terms of transported air masses compared to the transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the northern extratropical lower stratosphere. Air masses from the Asian monsoon anticyclone (India/China) contribute a minor fraction to the composition of air within the tropical pipe at 550 K (6 %), and the major fractions are from Southeast Asia (16 %) and the tropical Pacific (15 %).

Climate change over the Mediterranean and current destruction of marine ecosystem

Abstract: The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and its summer climate is known to be affected by the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) through the monsoon–desert teleconnection. In future, rainfall is expected to increase not only over the SASM area but also over the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and equatorial Atlantic regions. Here we show that the remote forcing regions affect the Mediterranean climate in the future. A subset of CMIP5 climate simulations exhibits an increase in the descending motion over the Western Mediterranean in the future. This strengthened subsidence comes from the SASM, EASM, and Atlantic forcings: the SASM and EASM heating induces the Gill-type Rossby wave response, and the Atlantic forcing causes the northeastward wave energy propagation. The sea surface temperature change over the Western Mediterranean is consistent with the subsidence change both in the future and in the recent decades. The chlorophyll-a concentration and fisheries landings have decreased in the recent period along with sea surface temperature warming. Our results suggest that special attention is required to conserve the marine ecosystem in the Mediterranean as climate warms.

Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate

Abstract: Understanding the details of the impact of global warming on the North and South America monsoons is of key importance for the well-being of a great number of inhabitants of the Americas. This review deals with the latest research on this topic. Combined multiple datasets, high-resolution global climate models and regional convection–permitting models provide new insights on the evolution of the North and South American monsoons under global warming, suggesting a precipitation reduction in the North American Monsoon, the southward shift of the core of the South American Monsoon, and precipitation reduction in the Amazon Basin. These changes are accompanied by increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in both monsoon regions. Uncertainty in the response mechanisms to global warming remains high, especially for the North American monsoon. To make progress, the evaluation of local and remote drives is critical, for which we need a combined use of regional and global models.