Showing papers by "Stockholm University published in 2010"

Review of Particle Physics

Abstract: This biennial Review summarizes much of particle physics. Using data from previous editions, plus 2158 new measurements from 551 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We also summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as Higgs bosons, heavy neutrinos, and supersymmetric particles. All the particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We also give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as the Standard Model, particle detectors, probability, and statistics. Among the 108 reviews are many that are new or heavily revised including those on neutrino mass, mixing, and oscillations, QCD, top quark, CKM quark-mixing matrix, V-ud & V-us, V-cb & V-ub, fragmentation functions, particle detectors for accelerator and non-accelerator physics, magnetic monopoles, cosmological parameters, and big bang cosmology.

Identification of influential spreaders in complex networks

Abstract: Spreading of information, ideas or diseases can be conveniently modelled in the context of complex networks. An analysis now reveals that the most efficient spreaders are not always necessarily the most connected agents in a network. Instead, the position of an agent relative to the hierarchical topological organization of the network might be as important as its connectivity.

The Herschel-SPIRE instrument and its in-flight performance

Abstract: The Spectral and Photometric Imaging REceiver (SPIRE), is the Herschel Space Observatory`s submillimetre camera and spectrometer It contains a three-band imaging photometer operating at 250, 350 and 500 mu m, and an imaging Fourier-transform spectrometer (FTS) which covers simultaneously its whole operating range of 194-671 mu m (447-1550 GHz) The SPIRE detectors are arrays of feedhorn-coupled bolometers cooled to 03 K The photometer has a field of view of 4' x 8', observed simultaneously in the three spectral bands Its main operating mode is scan-mapping, whereby the field of view is scanned across the sky to achieve full spatial sampling and to cover large areas if desired The spectrometer has an approximately circular field of view with a diameter of 26' The spectral resolution can be adjusted between 12 and 25 GHz by changing the stroke length of the FTS scan mirror Its main operating mode involves a fixed telescope pointing with multiple scans of the FTS mirror to acquire spectral data For extended source measurements, multiple position offsets are implemented by means of an internal beam steering mirror to achieve the desired spatial sampling and by rastering of the telescope pointing to map areas larger than the field of view The SPIRE instrument consists of a cold focal plane unit located inside the Herschel cryostat and warm electronics units, located on the spacecraft Service Module, for instrument control and data handling Science data are transmitted to Earth with no on-board data compression, and processed by automatic pipelines to produce calibrated science products The in-flight performance of the instrument matches or exceeds predictions based on pre-launch testing and modelling: the photometer sensitivity is comparable to or slightly better than estimated pre-launch, and the spectrometer sensitivity is also better by a factor of 15-2

Electronic structure calculations with GPAW: a real-space implementation of the projector augmented-wave method

Abstract: Electronic structure calculations have become an indispensable tool in many areas of materials science and quantum chemistry. Even though the Kohn-Sham formulation of the density-functional theory (DFT) simplifies the many-body problem significantly, one is still confronted with several numerical challenges. In this article we present the projector augmented-wave (PAW) method as implemented in the GPAW program package (https://wiki.fysik.dtu.dk/gpaw) using a uniform real-space grid representation of the electronic wavefunctions. Compared to more traditional plane wave or localized basis set approaches, real-space grids offer several advantages, most notably good computational scalability and systematic convergence properties. However, as a unique feature GPAW also facilitates a localized atomic-orbital basis set in addition to the grid. The efficient atomic basis set is complementary to the more accurate grid, and the possibility to seamlessly switch between the two representations provides great flexibility. While DFT allows one to study ground state properties, time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT) provides access to the excited states. We have implemented the two common formulations of TDDFT, namely the linear-response and the time propagation schemes. Electron transport calculations under finite-bias conditions can be performed with GPAW using non-equilibrium Green functions and the localized basis set. In addition to the basic features of the real-space PAW method, we also describe the implementation of selected exchange-correlation functionals, parallelization schemes, Delta SCF-method, x-ray absorption spectra, and maximally localized Wannier orbitals.

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century

Abstract: Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

SPECTRA AND HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE LIGHT CURVES OF SIX TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE AT 0.511 <z< 1.12 AND THE UNION2 COMPILATION ∗

Abstract: We report on work to increase the number of well-measured Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at high redshifts. Light curves, including high signal-to-noise HST data, and spectra of six SNe Ia that were discovered during 2001 are presented. Additionally, for the two SNe with z > 1, we present groundbased J-band photometry from Gemini and the VLT. These are among the most distant SNe Ia for which ground based near-IR observations have been obtained. We add these six SNe Ia together with other data sets that have recently become available in the literature to the Union compilation (Kowalski et al. 2008). We have made a number of refinements to the Union analysis chain, the most important ones being the refitting of all light curves with the SALT2 fitter and an improved handling of systematic errors. We call this new compilation, consisting of 557 supernovae, the Union2

Fermi large area telescope first source catalog

Abstract: We present a catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), during the first 11 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. The First Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL) contains 1451 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range. Source detection was based on the average flux over the 11 month period, and the threshold likelihood Test Statistic is 25, corresponding to a significance of just over 4 sigma. The 1FGL catalog includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and power-law spectral fits as well as flux measurements in five energy bands for each source. In addition, monthly light curves are provided. Using a protocol defined before launch we have tested for several populations of gamma-ray sources among the sources in the catalog. For individual LAT-detected sources we provide firm identifications or plausible associations with sources in other astronomical catalogs. Identifications are based on correlated variability with counterparts at other wavelengths, or on spin or orbital periodicity. For the catalogs and association criteria that we have selected, 630 of the sources are unassociated. Care was taken to characterize the sensitivity of the results to the model of interstellar diffuse gamma-ray emission used to model the bright foreground, with the result that 161 sources at low Galactic latitudes and toward bright local interstellar clouds are flagged as having properties that are strongly dependent on the model or as potentially being due to incorrectly modeled structure in the Galactic diffuse emission.

The second catalog of active galactic nuclei detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Abstract: The second catalog of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) in two years of scientific operation is presented. The second LAT AGN catalog (2LAC) includes 1017 γ-ray sources located at high Galactic latitudes (|b| > 10°) that are detected with a test statistic (TS) greater than 25 and associated statistically with AGNs. However, some of these are affected by analysis issues and some are associated with multiple AGNs. Consequently, we define a Clean Sample which includes 886 AGNs, comprising 395 BL Lacertae objects (BL Lac objects), 310 flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), 157 candidate blazars of unknown type (i.e., with broadband blazar characteristics but with no optical spectral measurement yet), 8 misaligned AGNs, 4 narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLS1s), 10 AGNs of other types, and 2 starburst galaxies. Where possible, the blazars have been further classified based on their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) as archival radio, optical, and X-ray data permit. While almost all FSRQs have a synchrotron-peak frequency 1015 Hz. The 2LAC represents a significant improvement relative to the first LAT AGN catalog (1LAC), with 52% more associated sources. The full characterization of the newly detected sources will require more broadband data. Various properties, such as γ-ray fluxes and photon power-law spectral indices, redshifts, γ-ray luminosities, variability, and archival radio luminosities and their correlations are presented and discussed for the different blazar classes. The general trends observed in 1LAC are confirmed.

Long-term impacts of antibiotic exposure on the human intestinal microbiota

Abstract: Although it is known that antibiotics have short-term impacts on the human microbiome, recent evidence demonstrates that the impacts of some antibiotics remain for extended periods of time. In addition, antibiotic-resistant strains can persist in the human host environment in the absence of selective pressure. Both molecular- and cultivation-based approaches have revealed ecological disturbances in the microbiota after antibiotic administration, in particular for specific members of the bacterial community that are susceptible or alternatively resistant to the antibiotic in question. A disturbing consequence of antibiotic treatment has been the long-term persistence of antibiotic resistance genes, for example in the human gut. These data warrant use of prudence in the administration of antibiotics that could aggravate the growing battle with emerging antibiotic-resistant pathogenic strains.

Resilience and vulnerability: Complementary or conflicting concepts?

Abstract: Resilience and vulnerability represent two related yet different approaches to understanding the response of systems and actors to change; to shocks and surprises, as well as slow creeping changes. Their respective origins in ecological and social theory largely explain the continuing differences in approach to social-ecological dimensions of change. However, there are many areas of strong convergence. This paper explores the emerging linkages and complementarities between the concepts of resilience and vulnerability to identify areas of synergy. We do this with regard to theory, methodology, and application. The paper seeks to go beyond just recognizing the complementarities between the two approaches to demonstrate how researchers are actively engaging with each field to coproduce new knowledge, and to suggest promising areas of complementarity that are likely to further research and action in the field.

The spectral energy distribution of fermi bright blazars

Abstract: We have conducted a detailed investigation of the broadband spectral properties of the gamma-ray selected blazars of the Fermi LAT Bright AGN Sample (LBAS). By combining our accurately estimated Fermi gamma-ray spectra with Swift, radio, infra-red, optical, and other hard X-ray/gamma-ray data, collected within 3 months of the LBAS data taking period, we were able to assemble high-quality and quasi-simultaneous spectral energy distributions (SED) for 48 LBAS blazars. The SED of these gamma-ray sources is similar to that of blazars discovered at other wavelengths, clearly showing, in the usual log nu-log nu F-nu representation, the typical broadband spectral signatures normally attributed to a combination of low-energy synchrotron radiation followed by inverse Compton emission of one or more components. We have used these SED to characterize the peak intensity of both the low-and the high-energy components. The results have been used to derive empirical relationships that estimate the position of the two peaks from the broadband colors (i.e., the radio to optical, alpha(ro), and optical to X-ray, alpha(ox), spectral slopes) and from the gamma-ray spectral index. Our data show that the synchrotron peak frequency (nu(S)(peak)) is positioned between 10(12.5) and 10(14.5) Hz in broad-lined flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) and between 10(13) and 10(17) Hz in featureless BL Lacertae objects. We find that the gamma-ray spectral slope is strongly correlated with the synchrotron peak energy and with the X-ray spectral index, as expected at first order in synchrotron-inverse Compton scenarios. However, simple homogeneous, one-zone, synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models cannot explain most of our SED, especially in the case of FSRQs and low energy peaked (LBL) BL Lacs. More complex models involving external Compton radiation or multiple SSC components are required to reproduce the overall SED and the observed spectral variability. While more than 50% of known radio bright high energy peaked (HBL) BL Lacs are detected in the LBAS sample, only less than 13% of known bright FSRQs and LBL BL Lacs are included. This suggests that the latter sources, as a class, may be much fainter gamma-ray emitters than LBAS blazars, and could in fact radiate close to the expectations of simple SSC models. We categorized all our sources according to a new physical classification scheme based on the generally accepted paradigm for Active Galactic Nuclei and on the results of this SED study. Since the LAT detector is more sensitive to flat spectrum gamma-ray sources, the correlation between nu(S)(peak) and gamma-ray spectral index strongly favors the detection of high energy peaked blazars, thus explaining the Fermi overabundance of this type of sources compared to radio and EGRET samples. This selection effect is similar to that experienced in the soft X-ray band where HBL BL Lacs are the dominant type of blazars.

The Herschel-Heterodyne Instrument for the Far-Infrared (HIFI)

Abstract: Aims. This paper describes the Heterodyne Instrument for the Far-Infrared (HIFI) that was launched onboard ESA's Herschel Space Observatory in May 2009. Methods. The instrument is a set of 7 heterodyne receivers that are electronically tuneable, covering 480-1250 GHz with SIS mixers and the 1410-1910 GHz range with hot electron bolometer (HEB) mixers. The local oscillator (LO) subsystem comprises a Ka-band synthesizer followed by 14 chains of frequency multipliers and 2 chains for each frequency band. A pair of auto-correlators and a pair of acousto-optical spectrometers process the two IF signals from the dual-polarization, single-pixel front-ends to provide instantaneous frequency coverage of 2 × 4 GHz, with a set of resolutions (125 kHz to 1 MHz) that are better than 0.1 km s-1. Results. After a successful qualification and a pre-launch TB/TV test program, the flight instrument is now in-orbit and completed successfully the commissioning and performance verification phase. The in-orbit performance of the receivers matches the pre-launch sensitivities. We also report on the in-orbit performance of the receivers and some first results of HIFI's operations.

Making flexible magnetic aerogels and stiff magnetic nanopaper using cellulose nanofibrils as templates

Abstract: Nanostructured biological materials inspire the creation of materials with tunable mechanical properties. Strong cellulose nanofibrils derived from bacteria or wood can form ductile or tough networks that are suitable as functional materials. Here, we show that freeze-dried bacterial cellulose nanofibril aerogels can be used as templates for making lightweight porous magnetic aerogels, which can be compacted into a stiff magnetic nanopaper. The 20-70-nm-thick cellulose nanofibrils act as templates for the non-agglomerated growth of ferromagnetic cobalt ferrite nanoparticles (diameter, 40-120 nm). Unlike solvent-swollen gels and ferrogels, our magnetic aerogel is dry, lightweight, porous (98%), flexible, and can be actuated by a small household magnet. Moreover, it can absorb water and release it upon compression. Owing to their flexibility, high porosity and surface area, these aerogels are expected to be useful in microfluidics devices and as electronic actuators.

Quantifying colocalization by correlation: the Pearson correlation coefficient is superior to the Mander's overlap coefficient.

Abstract: The Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and the Mander's overlap coefficient (MOC) are used to quantify the degree of colocalization between fluorophores. The MOC was introduced to overcome perceived problems with the PCC. The two coefficients are mathematically similar, differing in the use of either the absolute intensities (MOC) or of the deviation from the mean (PCC). A range of correlated datasets, which extend to the limits of the PCC, only evoked a limited response from the MOC. The PCC is unaffected by changes to the offset while the MOC increases when the offset is positive. Both coefficients are independent of gain. The MOC is a confusing hybrid measurement, that combines correlation with a heavily weighted form of co-occurrence, favors high intensity combinations, downplays combinations in which either or both intensities are low and ignores blank pixels. The PCC only measures correlation. A surprising finding was that the addition of a second uncorrelated population can substantially increase the measured correlation, demonstrating the importance of excluding background pixels. Overall, since the MOC is unresponsive to substantial changes in the data and is hard to interpret, it is neither an alternative to nor a useful substitute for the PCC. The MOC is not suitable for making measurements of colocalization either by correlation or co-occurrence.

Habitat fragmentation causes immediate and time‐delayed biodiversity loss at different trophic levels

Abstract: Intensification or abandonment of agricultural land use has led to a severe decline of semi-natural habitats across Europe. This can cause immediate loss of species but also time-delayed extinctions, known as the extinction debt. In a pan-European study of 147 fragmented grassland remnants, we found differences in the extinction debt of species from different trophic levels. Present-day species richness of long-lived vascular plant specialists was better explained by past than current landscape patterns, indicating an extinction debt. In contrast, short-lived butterfly specialists showed no evidence for an extinction debt at a time scale of c. 40 years. Our results indicate that management strategies maintaining the status quo of fragmented habitats are insufficient, as time-delayed extinctions and associated co-extinctions will lead to further biodiversity loss in the future.

An amorphous solid state of biogenic secondary organic aerosol particles

Abstract: Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles are formed in the atmosphere from condensable oxidation products of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs)(1-7). On a global scale, biogenic VOCs account for about 90% of VOC emissions(1,8) and of SOA formation (90 billion kilograms of carbon per year)(1-4). SOA particles can scatter radiation and act as cloud condensation or ice nuclei, and thereby influence the Earth's radiation balance and climate(1,2,5,9,10). They consist of a myriad of different compounds with varying physicochemical properties, and little information is available on the phase state of SOA particles. Gas-particle partitioning models usually assume that SOA particles are liquid(1,5,11), but here we present experimental evidence that they can be solid under ambient conditions. We investigated biogenic SOA particles formed from oxidation products of VOCs in plant chamber experiments and in boreal forests within a few hours after atmospheric nucleation events. On the basis of observed particle bouncing in an aerosol impactor and of electron microscopy we conclude that biogenic SOA particles can adopt an amorphous solid-most probably glassy-state. This amorphous solid state should provoke a rethinking of SOA processes because it may influence the partitioning of semi-volatile compounds, reduce the rate of heterogeneous chemical reactions, affect the particles' ability to accommodate water and act as cloud condensation or ice nuclei, and change the atmospheric lifetime of the particles(12-15). Thus, the results of this study challenge traditional views of the kinetics and thermodynamics of SOA formation and transformation in the atmosphere and their implications for air quality and climate.

The Role of Sulfuric Acid in Atmospheric Nucleation

Abstract: Nucleation is a fundamental step in atmospheric new-particle formation. However, laboratory experiments on nucleation have systematically failed to demonstrate sulfuric acid particle formation rates as high as those necessary to account for ambient atmospheric concentrations, and the role of sulfuric acid in atmospheric nucleation has remained a mystery. Here, we report measurements of new particles (with diameters of approximately 1.5 nanometers) observed immediately after their formation at atmospherically relevant sulfuric acid concentrations. Furthermore, we show that correlations between measured nucleation rates and sulfuric acid concentrations suggest that freshly formed particles contain one to two sulfuric acid molecules, a number consistent with assumptions that are based on atmospheric observations. Incorporation of these findings into global models should improve the understanding of the impact of secondary particle formation on climate.

InParanoid 7 : new algorithms and tools for eukaryotic orthology analysis

Abstract: The InParanoid project gathers proteomes of completely sequenced eukaryotic species plus Escherichia coli and calculates pairwise ortholog relationships among them. The new release 7.0 of the database has grown by an order of magnitude over the previous version and now includes 100 species and their collective 1.3 million proteins organized into 42.7 million pairwise ortholog groups. The InParanoid algorithm itself has been revised and is now both more specific and sensitive. Based on results from our recent benchmarking of low-complexity filters in homology assignment, a two-pass BLAST approach was developed that makes use of high-precision compositional score matrix adjustment, but avoids the alignment truncation that sometimes follows. We have also updated the InParanoid web site (http://InParanoid.sbc.su.se). Several features have been added, the response times have been improved and the site now sports a new, clearer look. As the number of ortholog databases has grown, it has become difficult to compare among these resources due to a lack of standardized source data and incompatible representations of ortholog relationships. To facilitate data exchange and comparisons among ortholog databases, we have developed and are making available two XML schemas: SeqXML for the input sequences and OrthoXML for the output ortholog clusters.

On mutually unbiased bases

Abstract: Mutually unbiased bases for quantum degrees of freedom are central to all theoretical investigations and practical exploitations of complementary properties. Much is known about mutually unbiased bases, but there are also a fair number of important questions that have not been answered in full as yet. In particular, one can find maximal sets of N + 1 mutually unbiased bases in Hilbert spaces of prime-power dimension N = pM, with p prime and M a positive integer, and there is a continuum of mutually unbiased bases for a continuous degree of freedom, such as motion along a line. But not a single example of a maximal set is known if the dimension is another composite number (N = 6, 10, 12,…). In this review, we present a unified approach in which the basis states are labeled by numbers 0, 1, 2, …, N - 1 that are both elements of a Galois field and ordinary integers. This dual nature permits a compact systematic construction of maximal sets of mutually unbiased bases when they are known to exist but throws no light on the open existence problem in other cases. We show how to use the thus constructed mutually unbiased bases in quantum-informatics applications, including dense coding, teleportation, entanglement swapping, covariant cloning, and state tomography, all of which rely on an explicit set of maximally entangled states (generalizations of the familiar two–q-bit Bell states) that are related to the mutually unbiased bases. There is a link to the mathematics of finite affine planes. We also exploit the one-to-one correspondence between unbiased bases and the complex Hadamard matrices that turn the bases into each other. The ultimate hope, not yet fulfilled, is that open questions about mutually unbiased bases can be related to open questions about Hadamard matrices or affine planes, in particular the notorious existence problem for dimensions that are not a power of a prime. The Hadamard-matrix approach is instrumental in the very recent advance, surveyed here, of our understanding of the N = 6 situation. All evidence indicates that a maximal set of seven mutually unbiased bases does not exist — one can find no more than three pairwise unbiased bases — although there is currently no clear-cut demonstration of the case.

Observation of a centrality-dependent dijet asymmetry in lead-lead collisions at √sNN=2.76 Tev with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Abstract: By using the ATLAS detector, observations have been made of a centrality-dependent dijet asymmetry in the collisions of lead ions at the Large Hadron Collider. In a sample of lead-lead events with a per-nucleon center of mass energy of 2.76 TeV, selected with a minimum bias trigger, jets are reconstructed in fine-grained, longitudinally segmented electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters. The transverse energies of dijets in opposite hemispheres are observed to become systematically more unbalanced with increasing event centrality leading to a large number of events which contain highly asymmetric dijets. This is the first observation of an enhancement of events with such large dijet asymmetries, not observed in proton-proton collisions, which may point to an interpretation in terms of strong jet energy loss in a hot, dense medium.

Press Coverage and Political Accountability

Abstract: We estimate the impact of press coverage on citizen knowledge, politicians’ actions, and policy. We find that voters living in areas where, for exogenous reasons, the press covers their U.S. House representative less are less likely to recall their representative’s name and less able to describe and rate him or her. Congressmen who are less covered by the local press work less for their constituencies: they are less likely to stand witness before congressional hearings, to serve on constituency‐oriented committees (perhaps), and to vote against the party line. Finally, federal spending is lower in areas with exogenously lower press coverage of congressmen.

Spectrum of the Isotropic Diffuse Gamma-Ray Emission Derived from First-Year Fermi Large Area Telescope Data

Abstract: We report on the first Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) measurements of the so-called "extra-galactic" diffuse gamma-ray emission (EGB). This component of the diffuse gamma-ray emission is generally considered to have an isotropic or nearly isotropic distribution on the sky with diverse contributions discussed in the literature. The derivation of the EGB is based on detailed modelling of the bright foreground diffuse Galactic gamma-ray emission (DGE), the detected LAT sources and the solar gamma-ray emission. We find the spectrum of the EGB is consistent with a power law with differential spectral index g = 2.41+/-0.05 and intensity, I(> 100 MeV) = (1.03+/-0.17) 10^-5 cm^-2 s^-1 sr^-1, where the error is systematics dominated. Our EGB spectrum is featureless, less intense, and softer than that derived from EGRET data.

Why Copy Others? Insights from the Social Learning Strategies Tournament

Abstract: Social learning (learning through observation or interaction with other individuals) is widespread in nature and is central to the remarkable success of humanity, yet it remains unclear why copying is profitable and how to copy most effectively To address these questions, we organized a computer tournament in which entrants submitted strategies specifying how to use social learning and its asocial alternative (for example, trial-and-error learning) to acquire adaptive behavior in a complex environment Most current theory predicts the emergence of mixed strategies that rely on some combination of the two types of learning In the tournament, however, strategies that relied heavily on social learning were found to be remarkably successful, even when asocial information was no more costly than social information Social learning proved advantageous because individuals frequently demonstrated the highest-payoff behavior in their repertoire, inadvertently filtering information for copiers The winning strategy (discountmachine) relied nearly exclusively on social learning and weighted information according to the time since acquisition

Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011

Abstract: This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease.