Showing papers by "University of Reading published in 2020"

Rapid Systematic Review: The Impact of Social Isolation and Loneliness on the Mental Health of Children and Adolescents in the Context of COVID-19.

Abstract: Objective Disease containment of COVID-19 has necessitated widespread social isolation. We aimed to establish what is known about how loneliness and disease containment measures impact on the mental health in children and adolescents. Method For this rapid review, we searched MEDLINE, PsycInfo, and Web of Science for articles published between January 1, 1946, and March 29, 2020. Of the articles, 20% were double screened using predefined criteria, and 20% of data was double extracted for quality assurance. Results A total of 83 articles (80 studies) met inclusion criteria. Of these, 63 studies reported on the impact of social isolation and loneliness on the mental health of previously healthy children and adolescents (n = 51,576; mean age 15.3 years). In all, 61 studies were observational, 18 were longitudinal, and 43 were cross-sectional studies assessing self-reported loneliness in healthy children and adolescents. One of these studies was a retrospective investigation after a pandemic. Two studies evaluated interventions. Studies had a high risk of bias, although longitudinal studies were of better methodological quality. Social isolation and loneliness increased the risk of depression, and possibly anxiety at the time at which loneliness was measured and between 0.25 and 9 years later. Duration of loneliness was more strongly correlated with mental health symptoms than intensity of loneliness. Conclusion Children and adolescents are probably more likely to experience high rates of depression and most likely anxiety during and after enforced isolation ends. This may increase as enforced isolation continues. Clinical services should offer preventive support and early intervention where possible and be prepared for an increase in mental health problems.

The global methane budget 2000–2017

Abstract: Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

The International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) consensus statement on the definition and scope of synbiotics

Abstract: In May 2019, the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) convened a panel of nutritionists, physiologists and microbiologists to review the definition and scope of synbiotics. The panel updated the definition of a synbiotic to “a mixture comprising live microorganisms and substrate(s) selectively utilized by host microorganisms that confers a health benefit on the host”. The panel concluded that defining synbiotics as simply a mixture of probiotics and prebiotics could suppress the innovation of synbiotics that are designed to function cooperatively. Requiring that each component must meet the evidence and dose requirements for probiotics and prebiotics individually could also present an obstacle. Rather, the panel clarified that a complementary synbiotic, which has not been designed so that its component parts function cooperatively, must be composed of a probiotic plus a prebiotic, whereas a synergistic synbiotic does not need to be so. A synergistic synbiotic is a synbiotic for which the substrate is designed to be selectively utilized by the co-administered microorganisms. This Consensus Statement further explores the levels of evidence (existing and required), safety, effects upon targets and implications for stakeholders of the synbiotic concept. Gut microbiota can be manipulated to benefit host health, including the use of probiotics, prebiotics and synbiotics. This Consensus Statement outlines the definition and scope of the term ‘synbiotics’ as determined by an expert panel convened by the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics in May 2019.

TRY plant trait database : Enhanced coverage and open access

Abstract: Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.

ARRIVE 2.0 and the British Journal of Pharmacology: Updated guidance for 2020.

Abstract: The BJP has been and remains an active advocate of the ARRIVE (Animal Research: Reporting of in vivo Experiments) guidelines (Kilkenny, Browne, Cuthill, Emerson, & Altman, 2010a) that were established by the National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research (NC3Rs) in 2010. The ARRIVE guidelines need no introduction and we will not rehearse the arguments in depth here, other than to restate that the lack of key in vivo experimental details has been identified as a major contributing factor to the poor reproducibility of pre-clinical research. This fact was the primary driver for establishment by the NC3Rs of the first version of the ARRIVE guidelines. ARRIVE provided a 20-point checklist, specifying all of the experimental details (procedures and fixed factors) that should be included in manuscripts for proper reporting of animal research. The guidelines were rapidly endorsed internationally by funding bodies, universities, learned societies and, importantly, Life Science journals. Currently there are 1,046 journals endorsing ARRIVE including BJP, which was one of the original six influential journals that published the guidelines in full in 2010 (Kilkenny, Browne, Cuthill, Emerson, & Altman, 2010b). However, ARRIVE has not had the effect that was originally hoped for, despite this widespread support and endorsement. In 2016 and in 2018 assessments of adherence of articles published in endorsing journals identified a lack of engagement. As an example, one systematic review of reports of studies investigating acute lung injury revealed that, of the items expected for ARRIVE compliance, only 45% of those advised for inclusion in the Methods, and only 29% of those for inclusion in the Results section, were present (Avey et al., 2016). Moreover, formal endorsement of the ARRIVE guidelines by journals did not necessarily improve compliance (Leung, Rousseau-Blass, Beauchamp, & Pang, 2018). Such disappointing reports of outcome triggered a reappraisal of the guidelines led by the NC3Rs who, in 2018, established a new, international Working Group to review and update the ARRIVE guidelines to generate ARRIVE 2.0 (Percie du Sert et al., 2018). As with the team of experts brought together to establish the first iteration of ARRIVE, the Editor in Chief of the BJP is a member of the new team that was assembled. As such, the BJP has been well-placed to influence the content, testing and final publication of both iterations of the guidelines. In 2015, the BJP published an editorial reporting findings from a survey of compliance with ARRIVE in articles published in 2014 in two issues of the journal (McGrath & Lilley, 2015). The results were not as had been hoped for, as was also evident from assessments elsewhere, and revealed scope for improving compliance in respect of both the design of the (animal) experiments and the description of experimental procedures. To help remedy this problem, a checklist was developed that provided an aide memoire of the details of the animals and research procedures that should be reported in manuscripts submitted to the journal. A further editorial focussed on experimental design and data analysis (Curtis et al., 2018) for all types of experimental data published in the journal, including those emanating from experiments with animals, was also published. A key issue with many of the studies reported in BJP prior to this related to inadequate experimental design and inappropriate statistical analysis. At the same time, the Instructions to Authors were revised, to include the new rubric, and the editorial scrutiny of these aspects of the peer review process was tightened up. As a further prompt, in 2016, authors were required to make a Declaration as part of the submission process, to confirm that their manuscript was ARRIVE compliant. In addition to these measures, two new ‘specialist’ editors were appointed: a Design & Analysis Advisor and a Consulting Editor in ARRIVE Guidelines and Animal Welfare. The brief of the latter was to monitor ARRIVE compliance in BJP publications and to assist Senior Editors with their appraisal of manuscripts. All these changes still remain in place with the addition of a Consulting Editor in Statistical Analysis to ensure that the research reports match BJP criteria and so qualify for publication.

A typology of compound weather and climate events

Abstract: Compound weather and climate events describe combinations of multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Although many climate-related disasters are caused by compound events, the understanding, analysis, quantification and prediction of such events is still in its infancy. In this Review, we propose a typology of compound events and suggest analytical and modelling approaches to aid in their investigation. We organize the highly diverse compound event types according to four themes: preconditioned, where a weather-driven or climate-driven precondition aggravates the impacts of a hazard; multivariate, where multiple drivers and/or hazards lead to an impact; temporally compounding, where a succession of hazards leads to an impact; and spatially compounding, where hazards in multiple connected locations cause an aggregated impact. Through structuring compound events and their respective analysis tools, the typology offers an opportunity for deeper insight into their mechanisms and impacts, benefiting the development of effective adaptation strategies. However, the complex nature of compound events results in some cases inevitably fitting into more than one class, necessitating soft boundaries within the typology. Future work must homogenize the available analytical approaches into a robust toolset for compound-event analysis under present and future climate conditions. Research on compound events has increased vastly in the last several years, yet, a typology was absent. This Review proposes a comprehensive classification scheme, incorporating compound events that are preconditioned, multivariate, temporally compounding and spatially compounding events.

Global lake responses to climate change

Abstract: Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate. Climate change affects lakes worldwide and is predicted to continue to alter lake ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation rates, water levels and mixing regimes. This Review discusses recent and expected lake responses to climate change and looks towards future research opportunities in lake monitoring and modelling.

Bounding global aerosol radiative forcing of climate change

Abstract: Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth’s radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable and arguable lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of −1.60 to −0.65 W m−2, or −2.0 to −0.4 W m−2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted towards more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

International HRM insights for navigating the COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for future research and practice.

Abstract: We show the relevance of extant international business (IB) research, and more specifically work on international human resources management (IHRM), to address COVID-19 pandemic challenges. Decision-makers in multinational enterprises have undertaken various types of actions to alleviate the impacts of the pandemic. In most cases these actions relate in some way to managing distance and to rethinking boundaries, whether at the macro- or firm-levels. Managing distance and rethinking boundaries have been the primary focus of much IB research since the IB field was established as a legitimate area of academic inquiry. The pandemic has led to increased cross-border distance problems (e.g., as the result of travel bans and reduced international mobility), and often also to new intra-firm distancing challenges imposed upon previously co-located employees. Prior IHRM research has highlighted the difficulties presented by distance, in terms of employee selection, training, support, health and safety, as well as leadership and virtual collaboration. Much of this thinking is applicable to solve pandemic-related distance challenges. The present, extreme cases of requisite physical distancing need not imply equivalent increases in psychological distance, and also offer firms some insight into the unanticipated benefits of a virtual workforce - a type of workforce that, quite possibly, will influence the 'new normal' of the post-COVID world. Extant IHRM research does offer actionable insight for today, but outstanding knowledge gaps remain. Looking ahead, we offer three domains for future IHRM research: managing under uncertainty, facilitating international and even global work, and redefining organizational performance.

The ODD protocol for describing agent-based and other simulation models: A second update to improve clarity, replication, and structural realism

Abstract: The Overview, Design concepts and Details (ODD) protocol for describing Individual-and Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is now widely accepted and used to document such models in journal articles. As a standardized document for providing a consistent, logical and readable account of the structure and dynamics of ABMs, some research groups also find it useful as a workflow for model design. Even so, there are still limitations to ODD that obstruct its more widespread adoption. Such limitations are discussed and addressed in this paper: the limited availability of guidance on how to use ODD; the length of ODD documents; limitations of ODD for highly complex models; lack of sufficient details of many ODDs to enable reimplementation without access to the model code; and the lack of provision for sections in the document structure covering model design ratio-nale, the model’s underlying narrative, and the means by which the model’s fitness for purpose is evaluated. We document the steps we have taken to provide better guidance on: structuring complex ODDs and an ODD summary for inclusion in a journal article (with full details in supplementary material; Table 1); using ODD to point readers to relevant sections of the model code; update the document structure to include sections on model rationale and evaluation. We also further advocate the need for standard descriptions of simulation experiments and argue that ODD can in principle be used for any type of simulation model. Thereby ODD would provide a lingua franca for simulation modelling.

Half a century of amyloids: past, present and future

Abstract: Amyloid diseases are global epidemics with profound health, social and economic implications and yet remain without a cure. This dire situation calls for research into the origin and pathological manifestations of amyloidosis to stimulate continued development of new therapeutics. In basic science and engineering, the cross-β architecture has been a constant thread underlying the structural characteristics of pathological and functional amyloids, and realizing that amyloid structures can be both pathological and functional in nature has fuelled innovations in artificial amyloids, whose use today ranges from water purification to 3D printing. At the conclusion of a half century since Eanes and Glenner's seminal study of amyloids in humans, this review commemorates the occasion by documenting the major milestones in amyloid research to date, from the perspectives of structural biology, biophysics, medicine, microbiology, engineering and nanotechnology. We also discuss new challenges and opportunities to drive this interdisciplinary field moving forward.

Sentiment Analysis for E-Commerce Product Reviews in Chinese Based on Sentiment Lexicon and Deep Learning

Abstract: In recent years, with the rapid development of Internet technology, online shopping has become a mainstream way for users to purchase and consume. Sentiment analysis of a large number of user reviews on e-commerce platforms can effectively improve user satisfaction. This paper proposes a new sentiment analysis model-SLCABG, which is based on the sentiment lexicon and combines Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and attention-based Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU). In terms of methods, the SLCABG model combines the advantages of sentiment lexicon and deep learning technology, and overcomes the shortcomings of existing sentiment analysis model of product reviews. The SLCABG model combines the advantages of the sentiment lexicon and deep learning techniques. First, the sentiment lexicon is used to enhance the sentiment features in the reviews. Then the CNN and the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network are used to extract the main sentiment features and context features in the reviews and use the attention mechanism to weight. And finally classify the weighted sentiment features. In terms of data, this paper crawls and cleans the real book evaluation of dangdang.com, a famous Chinese e-commerce website, for training and testing, all of which are based on Chinese. The scale of the data has reached 100000 orders of magnitude, which can be widely used in the field of Chinese sentiment analysis. The experimental results show that the model can effectively improve the performance of text sentiment analysis.

European SMEs amidst the COVID-19 crisis: assessing impact and policy responses

Abstract: We consider how the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged European small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector, and draw suggests policy implications. The sudden onslaught of the pandemic has acted as an economic shock, and we consider how it is likely to affect different types of manufacturing SMEs. We distinguish between immediate effects, a result of the almost-simultaneous lockdowns across Europe and its major trading partners, and longer-term implications for both SMEs and the global value chains where they are inserted. In the shorter run, most SMEs have faced logistical challenges in addition to demand disruptions, although the severity has differed across firms and industries. We argue that in the longer-term, there will be different challenges and opportunities depending on the type of SME. Policy interventions will also need to be sensitive to the different types of SMEs, rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach. The policy mix will need to shift from its initial focus on the survival of European SMEs in the short term, towards a more structural and longer-term approach based on promoting their renewal and growth through innovation, internationalization and networking.

The effectiveness of flower strips and hedgerows on pest control, pollination services and crop yield: a quantitative synthesis.

Abstract: Floral plantings are promoted to foster ecological intensification of agriculture through provisioning of ecosystem services. However, a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of different floral plantings, their characteristics and consequences for crop yield is lacking. Here we quantified the impacts of flower strips and hedgerows on pest control (18 studies) and pollination services (17 studies) in adjacent crops in North America, Europe and New Zealand. Flower strips, but not hedgerows, enhanced pest control services in adjacent fields by 16% on average. However, effects on crop pollination and yield were more variable. Our synthesis identifies several important drivers of variability in effectiveness of plantings: pollination services declined exponentially with distance from plantings, and perennial and older flower strips with higher flowering plant diversity enhanced pollination more effectively. These findings provide promising pathways to optimise floral plantings to more effectively contribute to ecosystem service delivery and ecological intensification of agriculture in the future.

Towards a global-scale soil climate mitigation strategy.

Abstract: Sustainable soil carbon sequestration practices need to be rapidly scaled up and implemented to contribute to climate change mitigation. We highlight that the major potential for carbon sequestration is in cropland soils, especially those with large yield gaps and/or large historic soil organic carbon losses. The implementation of soil carbon sequestration measures requires a diverse set of options, each adapted to local soil conditions and management opportunities, and accounting for site-specific trade-offs. We propose the establishment of a soil information system containing localised information on soil group, degradation status, crop yield gap, and the associated carbon-sequestration potentials, as well as the provision of incentives and policies to translate management options into region- and soil-specific practices.

Development of an updated global land In situ‐based data set of temperature and precipitation extremes : HadEX3

Abstract: Robert Dunn was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101) and thanks Nick Rayner and Lizzie Good for helpful comments on the manuscript Lisa Alexander is supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Grants DP160103439 and CE170100023 Markus Donat acknowledges funding by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramon y Cajal 2017 Grant Reference RYC‐2017‐22964 Mohd Noor'Arifin Bin Hj Yussof and Muhammad Khairul Izzat Bin Ibrahim thank the Brunei Darussalam Meteorological Department (BDMD) Ying Sun was supported by China funding agencies 2018YFA0605604 and 2018YFC1507702 Fatemeh Rahimzadeh and Mahbobeh Khoshkam thank IR of Iranian Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and the Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Organization Research Center (ASMERC) for Data and also sharing their experiences, especially Abbas Rangbar Jose Marengo was supported by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq Grant 465501/2014‐1, FAPESP Grants 2014/50848‐9 and 2015/03804‐9, and the National Coordination for High Level Education and Training (CAPES) Grant 88887136402‐00INCT The team that worked on the data in West Africa received funding from the UK's National Environment Research Council (NERC)/Department for International Development DFID) Future Climate For Africa programme, under the AMMA‐2050 project (Grants NE/M020428/1 and NE/M019969/1) Data from Southeast Asia (excl Indonesia) was supported by work on using ClimPACT2 during the Second Workshop on ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP‐2), 25–29 March 2019, Singapore, jointly funded by Meteorological Service Singapore and WMO through the Canada‐Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative This research was supported by Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) and Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI) under Grant RDG6030003 Daily data for Mexico were provided by the Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) of Comision Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA) We acknowledge the data providers in the ECA&D project (https://wwwecadeu), the SACA&D project (https://saca-bmkgknminl), and the LACA&D project (https://ciifenknminl) We thank the three anonymous reviewers for their detailed comments which improved the manuscript

Bitcoin, Blockchain and Fintech: a systematic review and case studies in the supply chain

Abstract: This paper aims to bridge the knowledge gap in the existing literature on Bitcoin, Blockchain and Fintech. It begins by clarifying the definition of these concepts. Through a systematic review and ...

The SunPy Project: Open Source Development and Status of the Version 1.0 Core Package

Abstract: NSFNational Science Foundation (NSF) [AST-1715122]; DIRAC Institute in the Department of Astronomy at the University of Washington; STFC studentshipScience & Technology Facilities Council (STFC) [ST/N504336/1]; STFC grantScience & Technology Facilities Council (STFC) [ST/N000692/1]; Google; NumFocus; Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society; Space program

Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity

Abstract: In summer 2018, central and northern Europe were stricken by extreme drought and heat (DH2018). The DH2018 differed from previous events in being preceded by extreme spring warming and brightening, but moderate rainfall deficits, yet registering the fastest transition between wet winter conditions and extreme summer drought. Using 11 vegetation models, we show that spring conditions promoted increased vegetation growth, which, in turn, contributed to fast soil moisture depletion, amplifying the summer drought. We find regional asymmetries in summer ecosystem carbon fluxes: increased (reduced) sink in the northern (southern) areas affected by drought. These asymmetries can be explained by distinct legacy effects of spring growth and of water-use efficiency dynamics mediated by vegetation composition, rather than by distinct ecosystem responses to summer heat/drought. The asymmetries in carbon and water exchanges during spring and summer 2018 suggest that future land-management strategies could influence patterns of summer heat waves and droughts under long-term warming.

Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6

Abstract: . Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically relied on making assumptions about forced changes in the mean and variability. With the advent of multiple single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), these assumptions can be scrutinized, as they allow a more robust separation between sources of uncertainty. Here, the framework from Hawkins and Sutton (2009) for uncertainty partitioning is revisited for temperature and precipitation projections using seven SMILEs and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives. The original approach is shown to work well at global scales (potential method bias 20 %), while at local to regional scales such as British Isles temperature or Sahel precipitation, there is a notable potential method bias (up to 50 %), and more accurate partitioning of uncertainty is achieved through the use of SMILEs. Whenever internal variability and forced changes therein are important, the need to evaluate and improve the representation of variability in models is evident. The available SMILEs are shown to be a good representation of the CMIP5 model diversity in many situations, making them a useful tool for interpreting CMIP5. CMIP6 often shows larger absolute and relative model uncertainty than CMIP5, although part of this difference can be reconciled with the higher average transient climate response in CMIP6. This study demonstrates the added value of a collection of SMILEs for quantifying and diagnosing uncertainty in climate projections.

Breast milk-derived human milk oligosaccharides promote Bifidobacterium interactions within a single ecosystem.

Abstract: Diet-microbe interactions play an important role in modulating the early-life microbiota, with Bifidobacterium strains and species dominating the gut of breast-fed infants. Here, we sought to explore how infant diet drives distinct bifidobacterial community composition and dynamics within individual infant ecosystems. Genomic characterisation of 19 strains isolated from breast-fed infants revealed a diverse genomic architecture enriched in carbohydrate metabolism genes, which was distinct to each strain, but collectively formed a pangenome across infants. Presence of gene clusters implicated in digestion of human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs) varied between species, with growth studies indicating that within single infants there were differences in the ability to utilise 2'FL and LNnT HMOs between strains. Cross-feeding experiments were performed with HMO degraders and non-HMO users (using spent or 'conditioned' media and direct co-culture). Further 1H-NMR analysis identified fucose, galactose, acetate, and N-acetylglucosamine as key by-products of HMO metabolism; as demonstrated by modest growth of non-HMO users on spend media from HMO metabolism. These experiments indicate how HMO metabolism permits the sharing of resources to maximise nutrient consumption from the diet and highlights the cooperative nature of bifidobacterial strains and their role as 'foundation' species in the infant ecosystem. The intra- and inter-infant bifidobacterial community behaviour may contribute to the diversity and dominance of Bifidobacterium in early life and suggests avenues for future development of new diet and microbiota-based therapies to promote infant health.

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Abstract: Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

Using Probiotics to Flatten the Curve of Coronavirus Disease COVID-2019 Pandemic

Abstract: In summary, orally administered probiotic strains can reduce the incidence and severity of viral RTIs. At a time when doctors are using drugs with little anti- COVID-19 data, probiotic strains documented for anti-viral and respiratory activities (not low-quality undocumented imitations) should become part of the armamentarium to reduce the burden and severity of this pandemic. Government funding is being used to test numerous drugs but just as important, they should fund probiotic trials. In addition, use of recognized prebiotics (e.g., fructans, galactans) to enhance propagation of probiotic strains and indigenous beneficial microbes should be recommended as part of the overall strategy to flatten the curve (11, 50).

The challenges and opportunities of a global health crisis: the management and business implications of COVID-19 from an Asian perspective

Abstract: On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a pandemic. As the evolution and implications of the COVID-19 crisis are still unfolding, we posit that exploring the experiences and strategic responses of Asian countries may shed light on ways to combat COVID-19 for the rest of the world. In this paper, we first articulate the importance of resilience, strategic agility, and entrepreneurship in the context of the fight against COVID-19. Then, with the focus on China, South Korea, and Singapore, we discuss the impact COVID-19 is having on economies and businesses, governmental support for businesses and societies, and implications for global supply chain disruptions. We hope that the global health system will recover quickly, and that the world economy will be revitalized with the contributions and collaboration of science (including social science), industry, and governments.

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract: . Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

The physics of climate variability and climate change

Abstract: The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject to various external forcings, natural as well as anthropogenic. This paper reviews the observational evidence on climate phenomena and the governing equations of planetary-scale flow, as well as presenting the key concept of a hierarchy of models as used in the climate sciences. Recent advances in the application of dynamical systems theory, on the one hand, and of nonequilibrium statistical physics, on the other, are brought together for the first time and shown to complement each other in helping understand and predict the system's behavior. These complementary points of view permit a self-consistent handling of subgrid-scale phenomena as stochastic processes, as well as a unified handling of natural climate variability and forced climate change, along with a treatment of the crucial issues of climate sensitivity, response, and predictability.

International scientists formulate a roadmap for insect conservation and recovery

Abstract: To the Editor — A growing number of studies are providing evidence that a suite of anthropogenic stressors — habitat loss and fragmentation, pollution, invasive species, climate change and overharvesting — are seriously reducing insect and other invertebrate abundance, diversity and biomass across the biosphere1–8. These declines affect all functional groups: herbivores, detritivores, parasitoids, predators and pollinators. Insects are vitally important in a wide range of ecosystem services9 of which some are vitally important for food production and security (for example, pollination and pest control)10. There is now a strong scientific consensus that the decline of insects, other arthropods and biodiversity as a whole, is a very real and serious threat that society must urgently address11–13. In response to the increasing public awareness of the problem, the German government is committing funds to combat and reverse declining insect numbers13. This funding should act as a clarion call to other nations across the world — especially wealthier ones — to follow suit and to respond proactively to the crisis by addressing the known and suspected threats and implementing solutions. We hereby propose a global ‘roadmap’ for insect conservation and recovery (Fig. 1). This entails the immediate implementation of several ‘no-regret’ measures (Fig. 1, step 1) that will act to slow or stop insect declines. Among the initiatives we encourage are the following immediate measures: Taking aggressive steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; reversing recent trends in agricultural intensification including reduced application of synthetic pesticides and fertilizers and pursuing their replacement with agro-ecological measures; promoting the diversification and maintenance of locally adapted landuse techniques; increasing landscape heterogeneity through the maintenance of natural areas within the landscape matrix and ensuring the retention and creation of microhabitats within habitats which may be increasingly important for insects during extreme climatic events such as droughts or heatwaves; reducing identified local threats such as light, water or noise pollution, invasive species and so on; prioritizing the import of goods that are not produced at the cost of healthy, species-rich ecosystems; designing and deploying policies (for example, subsidies and taxation) to induce the innovation and adoption of insectfriendly technologies; enforcing stricter measures to reduce the introduction of alien species, and prioritizing nature-based tactics for their (long-term) mitigation; compiling and implementing conservation strategies for species that are vulnerable, threatened or endangered; funding educational and outreach programs, including those tailored to the needs of the wider public, farmers, land managers, decision makers and conservation professionals; enhancing ‘citizen science’ or ‘community science’ as a way of obtaining more data on insect diversity and abundance as well as engaging the public, especially in areas where academic or professional infrastructure is lacking; devising and deploying measures across agricultural and food value chains that favour insect-friendly farming, including tracking, labelling, certification and insurance schemes or outcome-based incentives that facilitate behavioural changes, and investing in capacity building to create a new generation of insect conservationists and providing knowledge and skills to existing professionals (particularly in developing countries). To better understand changes in insect abundance and diversity, research should aim to prioritize the following areas: Quantifying temporal trends in insect abundance, diversity and biomass by extracting long-term datasets from existing insect collections to inform new censuses; exploring the relative contributions of different anthropogenic stressors causing insect declines within and across different taxa; initiating long-term studies comparing insect abundance and diversity in different habitats and ecosystems along a management-intensity gradient and at the intersection of agricultural and natural habitats; designing and validating insectfriendly techniques that are effective, locally relevant and economically sound in agriculture, managed habitats and urban environments; promoting and applying standardized monitoring protocols globally and establishing long-term monitoring plots or sites based on such protocols, as well as increasing support for existing monitoring efforts; establishing an international governing body under the auspices of existing bodies (for example, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) or the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)) that is accountable for documenting and monitoring the effects of proposed solutions on insect biodiversity in the longer term; launching public–private partnerships and sustainable financing initiatives with the aim of restoring, protecting and creating new vital insect habitats as well as managing key threats; increasing exploration and research to improve biodiversity assessments, with a focus on regional capacity building in understudied and neglected areas, and performing large-scale assessments of the conservation status of insect groups to help define priority species, areas and issues. Most importantly, we should not wait to act until we have addressed every key knowledge gap. We currently have enough information on some key causes of insect decline to formulate no-regret solutions whilst more data are compiled for lesserknown taxa and regions and long-term data are aggregated and assessed. Implementation should be accompanied by research that examines impacts, the results of which can be used to modify and improve the implementation of effective measures. Furthermore, such a ‘learning-by-doing’ approach ensures that these conservation strategies are robust to newly emerging pressures and threats. We must act now. ❐