Showing papers by "Royal Society for the Protection of Birds published in 2021"

Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion

Abstract: The projected loss of millions of square kilometres of natural ecosystems to meet future demand for food, animal feed, fibre and bioenergy crops is likely to massively escalate threats to biodiversity. Reducing these threats requires a detailed knowledge of how and where they are likely to be most severe. We developed a geographically explicit model of future agricultural land clearance based on observed historical changes, and combined the outputs with species-specific habitat preferences for 19,859 species of terrestrial vertebrates. We project that 87.7% of these species will lose habitat to agricultural expansion by 2050, with 1,280 species projected to lose ≥25% of their habitat. Proactive policies targeting how, where, and what food is produced could reduce these threats, with a combination of approaches potentially preventing almost all these losses while contributing to healthier human diets. As international biodiversity targets are set to be updated in 2021, these results highlight the importance of proactive efforts to safeguard biodiversity by reducing demand for agricultural land.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Abstract: Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match–mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

A metric for spatially explicit contributions to science-based species targets.

Abstract: The Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will probably include a goal to stabilize and restore the status of species Its delivery would be facilitated by making the actions required to halt and reverse species loss spatially explicit Here, we develop a species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric that is scalable across species, threats and geographies STAR quantifies the contributions that abating threats and restoring habitats in specific places offer towards reducing extinction risk While every nation can contribute towards halting biodiversity loss, Indonesia, Colombia, Mexico, Madagascar and Brazil combined have stewardship over 31% of total STAR values for terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals Among actions, sustainable crop production and forestry dominate, contributing 41% of total STAR values for these taxonomic groups Key Biodiversity Areas cover 9% of the terrestrial surface but capture 47% of STAR values STAR could support governmental and non-state actors in quantifying their contributions to meeting science-based species targets within the framework

Multispecies tracking reveals a major seabird hotspot in the North Atlantic

Abstract: The conservation of migratory marine species, including pelagic seabirds, is challenging because their movements span vast distances frequently beyond national jurisdictions. Here, we aim to identify important aggregations of seabirds in the North Atlantic to inform ongoing regional conservation efforts. Using tracking, phenology, and population data, we mapped the abundance and diversity of 21 seabird species. This revealed a major hotspot associated with a discrete area of the subpolar frontal zone, used annually by 2.9–5 million seabirds from ≥56 colonies in the Atlantic: the first time this magnitude of seabird concentrations has been documented in the high seas. The hotspot is temporally stable and amenable to site-based conservation and is under consideration as a marine protected area by the OSPAR Commission. Protection could help mitigate current and future threats facing species in the area. Overall, our approach provides an exemplar data-driven pathway for future conservation efforts on the high seas.

Global political responsibility for the conservation of albatrosses and large petrels

Abstract: Migratory marine species cross political borders and enter the high seas, where the lack of an effective global management framework for biodiversity leaves them vulnerable to threats. Here, we combine 10,108 tracks from 5775 individual birds at 87 sites with data on breeding population sizes to estimate the relative year-round importance of national jurisdictions and high seas areas for 39 species of albatrosses and large petrels. Populations from every country made extensive use of the high seas, indicating the stake each country has in the management of biodiversity in international waters. We quantified the links among national populations of these threatened seabirds and the regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs) which regulate fishing in the high seas. This work makes explicit the relative responsibilities that each country and RFMO has for the management of shared biodiversity, providing invaluable information for the conservation and management of migratory species in the marine realm.

Biodiversity conservation as a promising frontier for behavioural science.

Abstract: Human activities are degrading ecosystems worldwide, posing existential threats for biodiversity and humankind. Slowing and reversing this degradation will require profound and widespread changes to human behaviour. Behavioural scientists are therefore well placed to contribute intellectual leadership in this area. This Perspective aims to stimulate a marked increase in the amount and breadth of behavioural research addressing this challenge. First, we describe the importance of the biodiversity crisis for human and non-human prosperity and the central role of human behaviour in reversing this decline. Next, we discuss key gaps in our understanding of how to achieve behaviour change for biodiversity conservation and suggest how to identify key behaviour changes and actors capable of improving biodiversity outcomes. Finally, we outline the core components for building a robust evidence base and suggest priority research questions for behavioural scientists to explore in opening a new frontier of behavioural science for the benefit of nature and human wellbeing.

Long-term and large-scale multispecies dataset tracking population changes of common European breeding birds

Abstract: Around fifteen thousand fieldworkers annually count breeding birds using standardized protocols in 28 European countries. The observations are collected by using country-specific and standardized protocols, validated, summarized and finally used for the production of continent-wide annual and long-term indices of population size changes of 170 species. Here, we present the database and provide a detailed summary of the methodology used for fieldwork and calculation of the relative population size change estimates. We also provide a brief overview of how the data are used in research, conservation and policy. We believe this unique database, based on decades of bird monitoring alongside the comprehensive summary of its methodology, will facilitate and encourage further use of the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme results. Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13240760

Differential survival throughout the full annual cycle of a migratory bird presents a life-history trade-off.

Abstract: Long-distance migrations are among the most physically demanding feats animals perform. Understanding the potential costs and benefits of such behaviour is a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. A hypothetical cost of migration should be outweighed by higher productivity and/or higher annual survival, but few studies on migratory species have been able to directly quantify patterns of survival throughout the full annual cycle and across the majority of a species' range. Here, we use telemetry data from 220 migratory Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus, tracked for 3,186 bird months and across approximately 70% of the species' global distribution, to test for differences in survival throughout the annual cycle. We estimated monthly survival probability relative to migration and latitude using a multi-event capture-recapture model in a Bayesian framework that accounted for age, origin, subpopulation and the uncertainty of classifying fates from tracking data. We found lower survival during migration compared to stationary periods (β = -0.816; 95% credible interval: -1.290 to -0.318) and higher survival on non-breeding grounds at southern latitudes (<25°N; β = 0.664; 0.076-1.319) compared to on breeding grounds. Survival was also higher for individuals originating from Western Europe (β = 0.664; 0.110-1.330) as compared to further east in Europe and Asia, and improved with age (β = 0.030; 0.020-0.042). Anthropogenic mortalities accounted for half of the mortalities with a known cause and occurred mainly in northern latitudes. Many juveniles drowned in the Mediterranean Sea on their first autumn migration while there were few confirmed mortalities in the Sahara Desert, indicating that migration barriers are likely species-specific. Our study advances the understanding of important fitness trade-offs associated with long-distance migration. We conclude that there is lower survival associated with migration, but that this may be offset by higher non-breeding survival at lower latitudes. We found more human-caused mortality farther north, and suggest that increasing anthropogenic mortality could disrupt the delicate migration trade-off balance. Research to investigate further potential benefits of migration (e.g. differential productivity across latitudes) could clarify how migration evolved and how migrants may persist in a rapidly changing world.

Presumed killers? Vultures, stakeholders, misperceptions, and fake news

Abstract: Grupo de Investigaciones en Biología de la Conservación (GRINBIC), INIBIOMA (Universidad Nacional del Comahue—CONICET), Bariloche, Argentina Institute for Game and Wildlife Research, IREC (CSIC-UCLM), Ciudad Real, Spain Fitzpatrick Institute of African Ornithology, DST-NRF Centre of Excellence, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa Hawk Mountain Sanctuary, Orwigsburg, Pennsylvania Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC), Madrid, Spain Endangered Wildlife Trust, Modderfontein, South Africa Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy, UK Animal Demography and Ecology Unit, IMEDEA (CSIC)-UIB, Esporles, Spain CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS—Université de Montpellier—Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier—EPHE, Montpellier, France Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Departamento de Biología de la Conservación, Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Sevilla, Spain The Peregrine Fund, Boise, Idaho National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya Departamento de Biología Aplicada, Universidad Miguel Hernández, Alicante, Spain The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow, Poland School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2022.

Abstract: We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues.

track2KBA: An R package for identifying important sites for biodiversity from tracking data

Abstract: Identifying important sites for biodiversity is vital for conservation and management. However, there is a lack of accessible, easily applied tools that enable practitioners to delineate important sites for highly mobile species using established criteria. We introduce the R package ‘track2KBA’, a tool to identify important sites at the population level using tracking data from individual animals based on three key steps: (a) identifying individual core areas, (b) assessing population-level representativeness of the sample and (c) quantifying spatial overlap among individuals and scaling up to the population. We describe package functionality and exemplify its application using tracking data from three taxa in contrasting environments: a seal, a marine turtle and a migratory land bird. This tool facilitates the delineation of sites of ecological relevance for diverse taxa and provides output useful for assessing their importance to a population or species, as in the Key Biodiversity Area (KBA) Standard. As such, ‘track2KBA’ can contribute directly to conservation planning at global and regional levels.

Carbon flux and forest dynamics: Increased deadwood decomposition in tropical rainforest tree‐fall canopy gaps

Abstract: Tree mortality rates are increasing within tropical rainforests as a result of global environmental change. When trees die, gaps are created in forest canopies and carbon is transferred from the living to deadwood pools. However, little is known about the effect of tree-fall canopy gaps on the activity of decomposer communities and the rate of deadwood decay in forests. This means that the accuracy of regional and global carbon budgets is uncertain, especially given ongoing changes to the structure of rainforest ecosystems. Therefore, to determine the effect of canopy openings on wood decay rates and regional carbon flux, we carried out the first assessment of deadwood mass loss within canopy gaps in old-growth rainforest. We used replicated canopy gaps paired with closed canopy sites in combination with macroinvertebrate accessible and inaccessible woodblocks to experimentally partition the relative contribution of microbes vs. termites to decomposition within contrasting understorey conditions. We show that over a 12 month period, wood mass loss increased by 63% in canopy gaps compared with closed canopy sites and that this increase was driven by termites. Using LiDAR data to quantify the proportion of canopy openings in the study region, we modelled the effect of observed changes in decomposition within gaps on regional carbon flux. Overall, we estimate that this accelerated decomposition increases regional wood decay rate by up to 18.2%, corresponding to a flux increase of 0.27 Mg C ha-1 year-1 that is not currently accounted for in regional carbon budgets. These results provide the first insights into how small-scale disturbances in rainforests can generate hotspots for decomposer activity and carbon fluxes. In doing so, we show that including canopy gap dynamics and their impacts on wood decomposition in forest ecosystems can help improve the predictive accuracy of the carbon cycle in land surface models.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies : The SPI-Birds data hub

Abstract: The SPI-Birds have been supported by an NWO personal grant (grant number 016.Veni.181.054) to A.C., and a Research Council of Norway grant: 223257 (SFF-III) and 267511 (EVOCLIM).

Direct evidence of a prey depletion "halo" surrounding a pelagic predator colony.

Abstract: Colonially breeding birds and mammals form some of the largest gatherings of apex predators in the natural world and have provided model systems for studying mechanisms of population regulation in animals. According to one influential hypothesis, intense competition for food among large numbers of spatially constrained foragers should result in a zone of prey depletion surrounding such colonies, ultimately limiting their size. However, while indirect and theoretical support for this phenomenon, known as "Ashmole's halo," has steadily accumulated, direct evidence remains exceptionally scarce. Using a combination of vessel-based surveys and Global Positioning System tracking, we show that pelagic seabirds breeding at the tropical island that first inspired Ashmole's hypothesis do indeed deplete their primary prey species (flying fish; Exocoetidae spp.) over a considerable area, with reduced prey density detectable >150 km from the colony. The observed prey gradient was mirrored by an opposing trend in seabird foraging effort, could not be explained by confounding environmental variability, and can be approximated using a mechanistic consumption-dispersion model, incorporating realistic rates of seabird predation and random prey dispersal. Our results provide a rare view of the resource footprint of a pelagic seabird colony and reveal how aggregations of these central-place foraging, marine top predators profoundly influence the oceans that surround them.

The relative importance of COVID-19 pandemic impacts on biodiversity conservation globally

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an enormous impact on almost all aspects of human society and endeavour; the natural world and its conservation have not been spared. Through a process of expert consultation, we identified and categorised, into 19 themes and 70 sub-themes, the ways in which biodiversity and its conservation has been or could be impacted by the pandemic globally; nearly 60% of which were broadly negative in impact. Subsequently, we created a compendium (see Supporting Information) of all themes and sub-themes, each with explanatory text, and in August 2020 a diverse group of experienced conservationists with expertise from across sectors and geographies assessed each sub-theme for its likely impact on biodiversity conservation globally. The 9 sub-themes ranked highest were all negative in impact. These were, in rank order: governments side-lining the environment during their economic recovery, reduced wildlife-based tourism income, increased habitat destruction, reduced government funding, increased plastic and other solid waste pollution, weakening of pro-nature regulations and their enforcement, increased illegal harvest of wild animals, reduced philanthropy, and threats to survival of conservation organisations. In combination, these impacts present a worrying future of increased threats to biodiversity conservation but reduced capacity to counter them. The highest-ranking positive impact, at 10, was the beneficial impact of wildlife trade restrictions. More optimistically, amongst impacts ranked 11 to 20, 6 were positive and 4 were negative. We hope our assessment will draw attention to the impacts of the pandemic, improving the conservation community's ability to respond to them in the future. Article impact statement: The COVID-19 pandemic presents increased threats to biodiversity conservation globally yet reduced capacity to counter them. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Abstract: Aim: Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Location: Tropical Africa. Methods: We compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate-, habitat- and human-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific range change under a best- and a worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Results: The predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human-related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap. Main Conclusions: Massive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad.

Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Abstract: Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well-being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence-based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios.

Annual abundance of common Kestrels (Falco tinnunculus) is negatively associated with second generation anticoagulant rodenticides

Abstract: Rats and mice can damage food and agricultural products as well as transmit diseases, thereby requiring control of their numbers. Application of Second Generation Anticoagulant Rodenticides (SGARs) often reduces rodent numbers locally. However, predators eating rodents, including non-target species, that have consumed SGARs may be secondarily exposed and potentially lethally poisoned. Here we study whether SGARs may have contributed to the widespread population declines of a rodent-eating raptor, the Common Kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) in the UK. We show that 161 (66.8%) of the 241 Kestrels submitted for ecotoxicology tests between 1997 and 2012 had detectable levels of at least one SGAR in their livers. Adult Kestrels had significantly higher prevalence of SGARs than juveniles, suggesting accumulation of SGARs through time. The prevalence and concentrations of individual SGARs in Kestrels were significantly higher in England than in Scotland. SGAR prevalence in Kestrels were positively associated with some land cover types, primarily arable cereals and broad-leaved woodland, and negatively associated with mainly mean elevation, probably reflecting variation in SGAR usage across land cover types. By using volunteer-collected data on national Kestrel abundance 1997-2012, we show that there is a negative correlation between the Kestrel population index in a specific year and the concentration of bromadialone as well as the total SGAR concentration in the same year. Although correlative, this is the first study to provide evidence for a potential population-limiting effect of SGARs on a raptor.

Use of a novel camera trapping approach to measure small mammal responses to peatland restoration

Abstract: Small mammals, such as small rodents (Rodentia: Muroidea) and shrews (Insectivora: Soricidae), present particular challenges in camera trap surveys. Their size is often insufficient to trigger infra-red sensors, whilst resultant images may be of inadequate quality for species identification. The conventional survey method for small mammals, live-trapping, can be both labour-intensive and detrimental to animal welfare. Here, we describe a method for using camera traps for monitoring small mammals. We show that by attaching the camera trap to a baited tunnel, fixing a close-focus lens over the camera trap lens, and reducing the flash intensity, pictures or videos can be obtained of sufficient quality for identifying species. We demonstrate the use of the method by comparing occurrences of small mammals in a peatland landscape containing (i) plantation forestry (planted on drained former blanket bog), (ii) ex-forestry areas undergoing bog restoration, and (iii) unmodified blanket bog habitat. Rodents were detected only in forestry and restoration areas, whilst shrews were detected across all habitat. The odds of detecting small mammals were 7.6 times higher on camera traps set in plantation forestry than in unmodified bog, and 3.7 times higher on camera traps in restoration areas than in bog. When absolute abundance estimates are not required, and camera traps are available, this technique provides a low-cost survey method that is labour-efficient and has minimal animal welfare implications.