Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
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How climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies can threaten or enhance the biodiversity of production forests: Insights from Sweden
Annika M. Felton,Lena Gustafsson,Jean-Michel Roberge,Thomas Ranius,Joakim Hjältén,Jörgen Rudolphi,Matts Lindbladh,Jan Weslien,Lucy Rist,Jörg Brunet,Adam Felton +10 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate the biodiversity implications of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies (CCAMS) being implemented in the production forests of Sweden and find that CCAMS will often come into direct or partial conflict with Swedish biodiversity goals in production forests.
Journal ArticleDOI
Incorporating Population-Level Variation in Thermal Performance into Predictions of Geographic Range Shifts
TL;DR: Genetically-based differences in thermal performance curves for growth among 12 populations of the scarlet monkeyflower, Mimulus cardinalis, a perennial herb of western North America are estimated to generate mechanistic population-level projections of distribution under current and future climates.
Journal ArticleDOI
Carnivore conservation in practice: replicated management actions on a large spatial scale
Anders Angerbjörn,Nina E. Eide,Love Dalén,Bodil Elmhagen,Peter Hellström,Rolf A. Ims,Siw Turid Killengreen,Arild Landa,Tomas Meijer,Matti Mela,Jukka Niemimaa,Karin Norén,Magnus Tannerfeldt,Nigel G. Yoccoz,Heikki Henttonen +14 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report on a 30-year inventory of the critically endangered Fennoscandian arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L, including yearly surveys of 600 fox dens covering 21 000 km 2.
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation, rainfall, temperature and normalized difference vegetation index fluctuations in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed temporal variations in the local rainfall, temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the hemispheric El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using the Southern Oscillations Index and how they co varied in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem of Kenya and Tanzania.
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Towards European climate risk surfaces: the extent and distribution of analogous and non-analogous climates 1931–2100
TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess different aspects of risk arising from future climate change by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of future climatic conditions compared with the recent past Location Europe, where a 10' x 10' resolution gridded data set of five climate variables was used to calculate expected changes to the area, distance and direction of 1931-60 climate conditions under the HadCM3 climate model.
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