Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
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Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.
TL;DR: Numbers of species projected to lose >50% of their range are reduced by ~66% in insects and by ~50% in plants and vertebrates when warming is limited to 1.5°C as compared with 2°C.
Journal ArticleDOI
Diversity and carbon storage across the tropical forest biome
Martin J. P. Sullivan,Joey Talbot,Simon L. Lewis,Simon L. Lewis,Oliver L. Phillips,Lan Qie,Serge K. Begne,Serge K. Begne,Jérôme Chave,Aida Cuni-Sanchez,Wannes Hubau,Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez,Lera Miles,Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza,Bonaventure Sonké,Terry Sunderland,Terry Sunderland,Hans ter Steege,Hans ter Steege,Lee J. T. White,Kofi Affum-Baffoe,Shin-ichiro Aiba,Everton Cristo de Almeida,Edmar Almeida de Oliveira,Patricia Alvarez-Loayza,Esteban Alvarez Dávila,Ana Andrade,Luiz E. O. C. Aragão,Peter S. Ashton,Gerardo A. Aymard C,Timothy R. Baker,Michael Balinga,Lindsay F. Banin,Christopher Baraloto,Jean-François Bastin,Nicholas J. Berry,Jan Bogaert,Damien Bonal,Frans Bongers,Roel J. W. Brienen,José Luís Camargo,Carlos Cerón,Victor Chama Moscoso,Eric Chezeaux,Connie J. Clark,Alvaro Cogollo Pacheco,James A. Comiskey,James A. Comiskey,Fernando Cornejo Valverde,Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado,Greta C. Dargie,Stuart J. Davies,Charles De Cannière,Marie Noel Djuikouo K.,Jean-Louis Doucet,Terry L. Erwin,Javier Silva Espejo,Corneille E. N. Ewango,Sophie Fauset,Sophie Fauset,Ted R. Feldpausch,Rafael Herrera,Rafael Herrera,Martin Gilpin,Emanuel Gloor,Jefferson S. Hall,David Harris,Terese B. Hart,Kuswata Kartawinata,Lip Khoon Kho,Kanehiro Kitayama,Susan G. Laurance,William F. Laurance,Miguel E. Leal,Thomas E. Lovejoy,Jon C. Lovett,Faustin Mpanya Lukasu,Jean-Remy Makana,Yadvinder Malhi,Leandro Maracahipes,Beatriz Schwantes Marimon,Ben Hur Marimon Junior,Andrew R. Marshall,Paulo S. Morandi,John Tshibamba Mukendi,Jaques Mukinzi,Reuben Nilus,Percy Núñez Vargas,Nadir Pallqui Camacho,Guido Pardo,Marielos Peña-Claros,Pascal Petronelli,Georgia Pickavance,Axel Dalberg Poulsen,John R. Poulsen,Richard B. Primack,H. Priyadi,H. Priyadi,Carlos A. Quesada,Jan Reitsma,Maxime Réjou-Méchain,Zorayda Restrepo,Ervan Rutishauser,Kamariah Abu Salim,Rafael de Paiva Salomão,Ismayadi Samsoedin,Douglas Sheil,Douglas Sheil,Rodrigo Sierra,Marcos Silveira,J. W. Ferry Slik,Lisa Steel,Hermann Taedoumg,Sylvester Tan,John Terborgh,Sean C. Thomas,Marisol Toledo,Peter M. Umunay,Luis Valenzuela Gamarra,Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira,Vincent A. Vos,Ophelia Wang,Simon Willcock,Simon Willcock,Lise Zemagho +124 more
TL;DR: In this article, a pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests.
Journal ArticleDOI
Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?
Damien A. Fordham,H. Resit Akçakaya,Miguel B. Araújo,Miguel B. Araújo,Jane Elith,David A. Keith,David A. Keith,Richard G. Pearson,Tony D. Auld,Camille Mellin,Camille Mellin,John W. Morgan,Tracey J. Regan,Mark G. Tozer,Michael J. Watts,Matt White,Brendan A. Wintle,Colin J. Yates,Barry W. Brook +18 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors apply a model that combines habitat suitability with demographic processes to estimate spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change, and show that predicted climate-driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly.
Journal ArticleDOI
Plantation forests, climate change and biodiversity
Stephen M. Pawson,Antoine Brin,Eckehard G. Brockerhoff,David Lamb,T. W. Payn,Alain Paquette,John A. Parrotta +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on plantations and concluded that in the short to medium term changes in plantation management designed to mitigate or adapt to climate change could have a significantly greater impact on biodiversity in such plantations than the direct effects of the climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate, competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees
TL;DR: Early-successional species track climate change almost instantaneously while mid- to late- successional species were predicted to migrate very slowly, while re-adjustments of species ranges to climate and land-use change are complex and very individualistic, yet still quite predictable.
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