Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe.
TL;DR: Risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability, according to application of International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria.
Journal ArticleDOI
Niche Conservatism: Integrating Evolution, Ecology, and Conservation Biology
TL;DR: This work describes how niche conservatism in climatic tolerances may limit geographic range expansion and how this one type of niche conservatism may be important in allopatric speciation and the spread of invasive, human-introduced species.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling
TL;DR: This work proposes the use of maximum-entropy techniques for this problem, specifically, sequential-update algorithms that can handle a very large number of features, and investigates the interpretability of models constructed using maxent.
Journal ArticleDOI
Fire as a global 'herbivore': the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems.
TL;DR: The recent literature is reviewed, drawing parallels between fire and herbivores as alternative consumers of vegetation, and pointing to the common questions and some surprisingly different answers that emerge from viewing fire as a globally significant consumer that is analogous to herbivory.
Journal ArticleDOI
Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters.
Arndt Hampe,Rémy J. Petit +1 more
TL;DR: In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied, and the critical importance of rear edge populations as long-term stores of species' genetic diversity and foci of speciation has been little acknowledged.
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