Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
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TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
Terence P. Dawson,Stephen T. Jackson,Joanna Isobel House,Iain Colin Prentice,Iain Colin Prentice,Iain Colin Prentice,Georgina M. Mace +6 more
TL;DR: This work introduces a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses, and reviews the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory.
TL;DR: The authors analyze developmental, genetic, and demographic mechanisms by which populations tolerate changing environments and discuss empirical methods for determining the critical rate of sustained environmental change that causes population extinction.
Journal ArticleDOI
Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming
J. Alan Pounds,Martín R. Bustamante,Luis A. Coloma,Jamie A. Consuegra,Michael P. L. Fogden,Pru N Foster,Pru N Foster,Enrique La Marca,Karen L. Masters,Andrés Merino-Viteri,Robert Puschendorf,Santiago R. Ron,Santiago R. Ron,G. Arturo Sánchez-Azofeifa,Christopher J. Still,Bruce E. Young +15 more
TL;DR: It is shown that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming, and it is proposed that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks.
Journal ArticleDOI
Novel climates, no‐analog communities, and ecological surprises
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that no-analog communities (communities that are compositionally unlike any found today) occurred frequently in the past and will develop in the greenhouse world of the future.
Journal ArticleDOI
Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches.
Barry Sinervo,Barry Sinervo,Fausto R. Méndez-de-la-Cruz,Donald B. Miles,Donald B. Miles,Benoit Heulin,Elizabeth Bastiaans,Maricela Villagrán-Santa Cruz,Rafael A. Lara-Resendiz,Norberto Martínez-Méndez,Martha L. Calderón-Espinosa,Rubi N. Meza-Lázaro,Héctor Gadsden,Luciano Javier Avila,Mariana Morando,Ignacio De la Riva,Pedro Victoriano Sepulveda,Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha,Nora R. Ibargüengoytía,Cesar Augusto Aguilar Puntriano,Manuel Massot,Virginie Lepetz,Tuula A. Oksanen,David G. Chapple,Aaron M. Bauer,William R. Branch,Jean Clobert,Jack W. Sites +27 more
TL;DR: Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.
References
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