Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century
Henrique M. Pereira,Paul Leadley,Vania Proenca,Rob Alkemade,Joern P. W. Scharlemann,Juan F. Fernández-Manjarrés,Miguel B. Araújo,Miguel B. Araújo,Patricia Balvanera,Reinette Biggs,William W. L. Cheung,Louise Chini,H. David Cooper,Eric Gilman,Sylvie Guénette,George C. Hurtt,George C. Hurtt,Henry P. Huntington,Georgina M. Mace,Thierry Oberdorff,Carmen Revenga,Patrícia Rodrigues,Robert J. Scholes,Ussif Rashid Sumaila,Matt Walpole +24 more
TL;DR: Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century, however, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.
Journal ArticleDOI
Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations
TL;DR: As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions, and species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration.
Journal ArticleDOI
Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling
Miguel B. Araújo,Antoine Guisan +1 more
TL;DR: Five areas of enquiry are identified and discussed that are of high importance for species distribution modelling: clarification of the niche concept; improved designs for sampling data for building models; improved parameterization; improved model selection and predictor contribution; and improved model evaluation.
Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global
Luis A. Coloma,Jamie A. Consuegra,Michael P. L. Fogden,Pru N Foster,Enrique La Marca,Karen L. Masters,Robert Puschendorf,Santiago R. Ron,Christopher J. Still,Bruce E. Young +9 more
TL;DR: In this article, a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming, and the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures is analyzed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations
TL;DR: The authors systematically reviewed the literature to explore what potential solutions it has identified and what consensus and direction it provides to cope with climate change, and synthesize recommendations with respect to three likely conservation pathways: regional planning, site-scale management, and modification of existing conservation plans.
References
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