Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
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TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
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Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network
David G. Hole,David G. Hole,Stephen G. Willis,Deborah J. Pain,Lincoln Fishpool,Stuart H. M. Butchart,Yvonne C. Collingham,Carsten Rahbek,Brian Huntley +8 more
TL;DR: Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa's entire breeding avifauna, it is demonstrated that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.
Journal ArticleDOI
A meta-analysis of plant physiological and growth responses to temperature and elevated CO2
TL;DR: ECO2 effects on plant physiology and growth vary under different temperature regimes, among functional groups and photosynthetic pathways, and among response variables, which have important implications for biomass accumulation and ecosystem functioning in the future when the CO2 level is higher and climate extremes, such as heat waves, become more frequent.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change
Hanno Seebens,Hanno Seebens,Franz Essl,Franz Essl,Franz Essl,Wayne Dawson,Nicol Fuentes,Dietmar Moser,Dietmar Moser,Jan Pergl,Petr Pyšek,Petr Pyšek,Mark van Kleunen,Ewald Weber,Marten Winter,Bernd Blasius +15 more
TL;DR: The 'imperialist dogma,' stating that Europe has been a net exporter of naturalized plants since colonial times, does not hold for the past 60 years, and shows that particularly strong increases in naturalized plant numbers are expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Environmental flows for natural, hybrid and novel riverine ecosystems in a changing world
Mike Acreman,Angela Arthington,Matthew J. Colloff,Carol Couch,Neville D. Crossman,Fiona Dyer,Ian Overton,Carmel Pollino,Michael J. Stewardson,W. J. Young,W. J. Young +10 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the former approach is more applicable to natural and semi-natural rivers where the primary objective and opportunity is ecological conservation, and the latter "designer" approach is better suited to modified and managed rivers where return to natural conditions is no longer feasible and the objective is to maximize natural capital as well as support economic growth, recreation, or cultural history.
Journal ArticleDOI
Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics
TL;DR: An analysis of ecological characteristics of 23 threatened and 72 nonthreatened butterfly species reveals that threatened butterflies are characterized by narrow niche breadth, restricted resource distribution, poor dispersal ability, and short flight period, and an ecological extinction risk rank is constructed.
References
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