Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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Long-distance plant dispersal and habitat fragmentation: identifying conservation targets for spatial landscape planning under climate change
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a stochastic spatially explicit model to simulate plant dispersal across artificial fragmented landscapes, based on certain assumptions as to the dispersal mechanism, assess the impact that varying potential for rare long-distance dispersal has on the ability to move over landscapes with differing spatial arrangements of suitable habitat.
Journal ArticleDOI
Tree species range shifts at a continental scale: new predictive insights from a process-based model
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors simulate the distributions of 16 North American tree species at a continental scale for the 21st century according to two IPCC storylines, using a process-based species distribution model that for the first time allows identification of the possible causes of distribution change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change
Luciana L. Porfirio,Rebecca M. B. Harris,Edward C. Lefroy,Sonia Hugh,Susan F. Gould,G Lee,Nathaniel L. Bindoff,Brendan Mackey +7 more
TL;DR: The effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly) and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine).
Journal ArticleDOI
Regional and local patterns of ectomycorrhizal fungal diversity and community structure along an altitudinal gradient in the Hyrcanian forests of northern Iran.
Mohammad Bahram,Sergei Põlme,Sergei Põlme,Urmas Kõljalg,Urmas Kõljalg,Shahin Zarre,Leho Tedersoo,Leho Tedersoo +7 more
TL;DR: The decline of ectomycorrhizal fungal richness with increasing altitude is consistent with the general altitudinal richness patterns of macroorganisms, and low environmental energy reduces the competitive ability of rare species and thus has a negative effect on the richness of ectonic fungi.
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Reid’s Paradox Revisited: The Evolution of Dispersal Kernels during Range Expansion
TL;DR: It is argued here that dispersal kernels are in fact highly dynamic during periods of range advance because density effects and spatial assortment by dispersal ability drive the evolution of increased dispersal on the expanding front.
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